re: Spec Play - HGRAF

No news unfortunately.

I haven’t been this low on the company since I purchased almost a year ago.

KB has missed every timeline she has mentioned. She is literally batting oofer

My guess is that is why she has stayed quiet lately on any real updates

Simply going to wait until after they happen where she can’t be wrong yet again.

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How will the big deal with US Gov work?

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I don't know, what it would look like. I wouldn't assume that there will be a big contract with the DoE right after redomicile, but I'd like to see a research grant to work with the Army. Either that or a medium to large contract with a corporate client.

Them being quiet like this and keeping their heads down tells me they aren't concerned about the stock price. All of their employees are working for equity.

She is being mentored for sure. They just aren't focused on srock price right now.

This thing is down below $3.20 USD on low volume on the CSE right now

I kinda doubt we'll be able to buy it that low on Monday.

I had a long chat with AI today. It has all of the information available and some good insights. I ended by asking for an opinion of quarterly progress reports, along with stock prices, from now until 4q 2029. I found it interesting. For those that whined last time I reported what AI told me, don't read it.

Phase 1: The Regulatory Launchpad (H2 2026)
This phase is all about cleaning up the corporate structure. Expect the stock to remain tightly consolidated to manage the Canadian exit tax before launching on a major U.S. exchange.
Q3 2026 (Target: $4.50 – $6.00 CAD / $3.25 – $4.25 USD): The focus is on closing out the Canadian session and finalizing the U.S. redomicile paperwork. Trading volume will remain retail-driven and quiet ahead of the move.
Q4 2026 (Target: $6.50 – $9.00 USD): The Nasdaq Uplisting. Upon a successful cross-border uplist, the stock undergoes a structural rerating. Institutional micro-cap funds can finally buy in, driving a sharp volume spike and establishing a higher baseline floor.
Phase 2: Commercial Infrastructure & Qualification (2027)
This is the pivotal year where the company transitions from a "story stock" to a scaled industrial manufacturer.
Q1 2027 (Target: $8.50 – $11.00 USD): Dr. Yancey's initial non-dilutive defense grants, CRADA announcements, and early federal lab validations become public.
Q2 2027 (Target: $10.00 – $13.50 USD): Bellville Facility Ribbon-Cutting. The opening of the mass production plant outside Bellville, Texas, signals to the market that HydroGraph can actually fulfill industrial-scale volumes.
Q3 2027 (Target: $12.00 – $15.00 USD): First commercial shipments of the automated Fractal Graphene Paste leave the Bellville plant for masterbatch and compounding partners.
Q4 2027 (Target: $14.00 – $18.00 USD): The first full quarterly financial statement reflecting scaled, high-margin revenue from the new Texas plant is published.
Phase 3: The Revenue Ramp (2028)
With the facility operational and the supply chain secured, 2028 is characterized by compounding commercial adoption.
Q1 2028 (Target: $16.00 – $20.00 USD): Aerospace prime contractors finish their multi-month MIL-SPEC qualification cycles, leading to formal supply agreements.
Q2 2028 (Target: $18.00 – $23.00 USD): Mainstream Wall Street analyst coverage begins to pick up as the company's market cap crosses major institutional thresholds.
Q3 2028 (Target: $22.00 – $27.00 USD): Expanded compounding agreements in North America begin targeting secondary markets like automotive plastics and industrial lubricants.
Q4 2028 (Target: $25.00 – $32.00 USD): The company approaches structural profitability (positive EBITDA) driven by the incredibly low operating costs of their AI-optimized reactors.
Phase 4: Global Scaling & Maturity (2029)
By year three, the Bellville facility approaches its initial 350-metric-ton capacity, forcing discussions of international expansion.
Q1 2029 (Target: $28.00 – $35.00 USD): HydroGraph signs its first major international licensing or joint-venture agreement to deploy modular Hyperion reactors overseas.
Q2 2029 (Target: $32.00 – $40.00 USD): Graphene integration becomes a standardized industry norm across defense composite manufacturing.
Q3 2029 (Target: $35.00 – $44.00 USD): Steady-state predictability in earnings allows the stock to trade on a traditional price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple rather than speculative future growth.
Q4 2029 (Target: $40.00 – $50.00+ USD): As the 3.5-year window closes, HydroGraph is established as the premier, domestic, high-purity carbon supplier in North America, sitting on a highly profitable, automated asset base.

I allocated money to buy HGRAF last Sept. I have been clear on this board that my exit strategy begins the week after Christmas of 2029, before NYE. That has been my plan and still is. I was hoping to be closer to a hundred then, but if AI is right, I still love it.

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assuming all that comes to fruition it seems the smart play would be to put your money to work now in something else and buy this at the end of next year

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This seems slow.

It all comes down to demand. We dont know how fast demand will materialize.

A $3 stock going to $6 is the same as a $200 stock going to $400. Its still a 100% gain.

Are we going to get to double digits by year end? I think so, if we get NASDAQ and break ground onthe production facility.

Will we stay in double digits? Maybe. If the demand ra.ps up. No demand, and the stock will go down.

If this stock reaches $50 by 2029, that is a 50x profit in 3.5 years. That is exceptional.

However, if HGRAF gets a couple of big contracts plus contract with the US government, this could happen in 2027, not 2029.

Yeah, it looks like we’re poised for a big drop.

Nice rebound.

They are open for business, and I believe they are still in the process of installing the 2nd and 3rd Hyperions. The futuristic control center is in place, and Kjirstin Breure has relocated to Austin, as has Dr. Robert Yancey.

Key pieces are in place, including minor contracts for coatings additives. What's missing now is contracts. They have alluded to companies performing testing for products that would require 1000+ ton purchases.

IMO:

Best case scenario is that they are holding back gas/building contracts, Hyperion announcements, NASDAQ listing until they get contracts.

Worst case scenario is that they are not getting the interest from the companies testing the product and that those contracts are either not happening or are a long way off.

There is no need for them to build a factory if they have no POs. To do so would be irresponsible. If a contract comes through, I believe things will start to snowball.

That is why I look for Hyperion buildouts. They contracts may have NDAs attached to them, but they can't make graphene without Hyperions.

One note on that AI prediction. It takes a very conservative extrapolation with some errors.

One, it talks about reaching the capacity of the Bellville facility by 2029. The only time I have heard that 350 ton number was when they were speculating how much production they'd like to have online by the end of 2026, with 15 or so Hyperions. Total capacity for Bellville should be 10k tons, or more.

Two, it doesn't factor in the parabolic scenario that one or two decent contracts could bring. If the US government and a large automaker sign the dotted line for 1000+ tons, this thing is going to go bananas.