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Started By
Message
re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?
Posted on 11/5/20 at 11:52 am to TimeOutdoors
Posted on 11/5/20 at 11:52 am to TimeOutdoors
quote:
On Monday I thought he would. As for now... I think there are some odd things going on, but I don't believe anything I hear on the news, twitter, etc. I am perfectly content with what the end count is. If the courts get involved I am perfectly content with that also. I have worked hard, saved well, invested well, and personally I am going to be fine no matter what happens. Selfish point of view I know, but I have never looked for anyone else to take care of me.
So since you asked for clarity... Right now I believe Biden will be President unless evidence comes out that voter fraud is taking place. I choose to believe Americans would not do that. Hope I am not proven wrong.
Lastly, not trying to come off as ungrateful, hateful, etc. Yes I am hard headed, stubborn, etc, but most engineers are. I do enjoy this board and the post from all members here. It is a good source of information even though we all will not always agree. If someone ask me what I have done or will do I will answer honestly. I will also admit when it was a mistake.
Thank you. So you are riding things out for now. Have your thoughts around the market going down if Trump loses changed?
Also, for what it is worth, I think the market is reflecting a Biden White House / Split Congress, and is overbought currently. A +7% move from the close last week based on an outcome that was widely portrayed as "baked in" is concerning. Suggestions that it is from dodging a "Blue Wave" outcome would run counter to the fact that for the last 8 months, the only thing that has mattered is the promise of fiscal stimulus. A "Blue Wave" would have certainly resulted in a higher amount in the coming stimulus bill.
1
Posted on 11/5/20 at 1:56 pm to CrawfishOfWallstreet
quote:
A +7% move from the close last week based on an outcome that was widely portrayed as "baked in" is concerning.
I don't think any particular election outcome was baked in. To me, the sell off last week was an attempt by investors to reduce exposure and mitigate risk. This rally is the result of an election outcome that is basically a best case scenario for most of the market.
Posted on 11/5/20 at 2:36 pm to whitefoot
While you are certainly entitled to your opinion, options data was pretty clearly suggesting expectation of one outcome.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-investors-bets-eye-a-biden-victory-robust-stimulus-11603791001
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-investors-bets-eye-a-biden-victory-robust-stimulus-11603791001
Posted on 11/5/20 at 3:52 pm to TimeOutdoors
quote:
Why would anyone not? Everyone believes the stimulus package will go forward after the election.
Right. And that was the expectation prior to your politically charged post, and the same is expected now. Nothing has changed on that front.
Anyway, whether people here want to trade or invest, jump out and then jump back in, what they do is their own business. But when someone does a 180 and the logic behind that decision makes no sense, people question it. That's all.
A good day to you as well.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 7:56 am to Jag_Warrior
This week is a good example of why trying to time the market is usually a bad idea.
Some people said Trump would be better for the market and if he lost it would tank.
Some said the opposite and that Biden would be better.
Almost everyone agreed that the worst outcome for the market would be a standoff, which is exactly what happnened....yet here we are up roughly 8% since Mon.
Some people said Trump would be better for the market and if he lost it would tank.
Some said the opposite and that Biden would be better.
Almost everyone agreed that the worst outcome for the market would be a standoff, which is exactly what happnened....yet here we are up roughly 8% since Mon.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 1:37 pm to CrawfishOfWallstreet
This article is a little dated, don't you think? There was definitely heavy rotation from growth to value in anticipation of a blue wave (big stimulus) in the weeks leading up to the election. But the S&P dropped like 6% since that article was published.
I'd share your concern of this week's bounce if it was 7% on top of the October 23rd levels, where it was looking like a blue wave was coming. After last week's declines, I don't think any election outcome was "baked in" any longer. The market is only up about 1% from October 23.
I'd share your concern of this week's bounce if it was 7% on top of the October 23rd levels, where it was looking like a blue wave was coming. After last week's declines, I don't think any election outcome was "baked in" any longer. The market is only up about 1% from October 23.
Posted on 11/6/20 at 1:47 pm to tom1987
I started moving to selling calls instead of buying them. Seemed to be a safer haven in a time of turmoil.
Going back to a stronger cash position too. Could be some bargains in that muddy water.
Going back to a stronger cash position too. Could be some bargains in that muddy water.
Posted on 11/9/20 at 7:30 am to tom1987
Yes. Pull out now!!!
WAIT!!!
WAIT!!!
Posted on 11/9/20 at 8:23 am to cgrand
quote:
but this is worst advice I think I’ve ever seen on the MT should anyone else here be inclined to follow it
Yep. Watching people with long term investments trying their hand at short term trading is a sad sight.
Posted on 11/9/20 at 8:26 am to Jag_Warrior
what a day to be CASH GANG 
Posted on 11/9/20 at 10:19 am to DawgCountry
Trying to time the market is typically a losing proposition. You run the risk missing out on days like today which has really nothing to do with the fundamentals.
Posted on 11/9/20 at 10:41 am to fallguy_1978
I mean, you hate it for these people, but time and time again people think "this time it'll be different."
Nothing wrong with having cash, but when it's clearly reactionary it almost never ends well.
Nothing wrong with having cash, but when it's clearly reactionary it almost never ends well.
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