- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
CrawfishOfWallstreet
| Favorite team: | |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 253 |
| Registered on: | 10/27/2020 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
Message
re: Anyone considering, or done, Roth conversion out of concern for future tax rates?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/8/20 at 3:45 pm
quote:
accounts each year regardless of tax laws. It’s good to diversify asset holdings in addition to pre and post tax holdings.
Tax diversification is important and should be used when possible. Have an upvote.
0
re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/5/20 at 2:36 pm
While you are certainly entitled to your opinion, options data was pretty clearly suggesting expectation of one outcome.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-investors-bets-eye-a-biden-victory-robust-stimulus-11603791001
https://www.wsj.com/articles/stock-investors-bets-eye-a-biden-victory-robust-stimulus-11603791001
re: Biden’s Tax Plan and Retirement Prep
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/5/20 at 12:53 pm
Everyone should read the article again.
That isn't Biden's tax plan. The only thing Biden has said is "Equalizing the tax benefits of retirement plans. Current tax benefits for retirement savings provide upper-income families with a significant tax break, while providing a limited benefit for low- and middle-income workers. Biden will equalize benefits across the income scale, so working families also receive substantial tax benefits when they put money away for retirement."
What that article does is speculate using third party suggestions of what that looks like, namely using a tax credit instead of a deduction.
I wouldn't recognize any changes in behavior based on musings about a proposal that would still have to get approved by what looks to a split Congress.
That isn't Biden's tax plan. The only thing Biden has said is "Equalizing the tax benefits of retirement plans. Current tax benefits for retirement savings provide upper-income families with a significant tax break, while providing a limited benefit for low- and middle-income workers. Biden will equalize benefits across the income scale, so working families also receive substantial tax benefits when they put money away for retirement."
What that article does is speculate using third party suggestions of what that looks like, namely using a tax credit instead of a deduction.
I wouldn't recognize any changes in behavior based on musings about a proposal that would still have to get approved by what looks to a split Congress.
re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/5/20 at 11:52 am
quote:
On Monday I thought he would. As for now... I think there are some odd things going on, but I don't believe anything I hear on the news, twitter, etc. I am perfectly content with what the end count is. If the courts get involved I am perfectly content with that also. I have worked hard, saved well, invested well, and personally I am going to be fine no matter what happens. Selfish point of view I know, but I have never looked for anyone else to take care of me.
So since you asked for clarity... Right now I believe Biden will be President unless evidence comes out that voter fraud is taking place. I choose to believe Americans would not do that. Hope I am not proven wrong.
Lastly, not trying to come off as ungrateful, hateful, etc. Yes I am hard headed, stubborn, etc, but most engineers are. I do enjoy this board and the post from all members here. It is a good source of information even though we all will not always agree. If someone ask me what I have done or will do I will answer honestly. I will also admit when it was a mistake.
Thank you. So you are riding things out for now. Have your thoughts around the market going down if Trump loses changed?
Also, for what it is worth, I think the market is reflecting a Biden White House / Split Congress, and is overbought currently. A +7% move from the close last week based on an outcome that was widely portrayed as "baked in" is concerning. Suggestions that it is from dodging a "Blue Wave" outcome would run counter to the fact that for the last 8 months, the only thing that has mattered is the promise of fiscal stimulus. A "Blue Wave" would have certainly resulted in a higher amount in the coming stimulus bill.
re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/5/20 at 11:17 am
Just for clarity, not an attack, you believe that President Trump won the election?
re: Arrest made in Phi Psi criminal hazing case
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/3/20 at 4:20 pm
Obviously I agree that the word “suicide” appears on that crime log, but I stand by my statement that it seems very unlikely that a student committed suicide on campus and there isn’t a single news report of it.
re: How much is enough in the 529 accounts?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/3/20 at 3:30 pm
quote:
I use a UTMA. It does not get the tax advantages or match as a 529, but you can use it on anything relating to the child. Also, the interest is taxed at the child's tax rate. Right now we use it as a savings for college as well as to cover next year's tuition. When the bill comes, we just request that amount to come out. I would like to be able to foot 6 years of college as I think grad school will be necessary, but I am also not trying to kill myself and sacrifice living life for the sake of possibly needing the funds for college.
You can use these funds on anything for the child, tuition, meals, clothes, car, room & board...
Down side to the UTMA, control turns over to the child at 18 (some States it is 21), so it will become their money and can blow it how they want. When in HS we will try to teach them about the value of not blowing the funds on top end cars, hookers & blow, stupid tech... basically the shite we did
With the exception of a car, every expense you mentioned can be paid using 529 assets tax free.
Also, while the first $1,100 of earnings in a UTMA is actually tax free, and next $1,100 is taxed at the child’s tax rate (Kiddie Tax), any earnings above that are taxed at the parent’s income tax rate.
Additionally, for the purpose of calculating expected financial contribution, and subsequently need based financial aid, UTMA assets are considered assets of the child, and up to 35% of those assets can be included in the expected contribution formula. 529 assets on the other hand, are considered assets of the parent, and are included at a max rate of 5.6%.
Finally, the ”beneficiary” on a UTMA account cannot be changed, because the assets actually belong to the minor. On the other hand, if you have excess funds in one child’s 529 account, you may change the beneficiary of those funds to another child or relative at any time.
The only pro I can think of for a UTMA vs a 529 account is a wider range of investment options in a UTMA, but there are 529 providers with low cost etfs on their platforms these days.
When saving for educational expenses, UTMA accounts are inferior in almost every way to 529 plans.
re: Arrest made in Phi Psi criminal hazing case
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/3/20 at 12:20 pm
quote:
What the fuq is going on at LSU? My kids just told me that in addition to all the other shite going on, an SAE committed suicide and a freshman in Laville did too. LSU needs to get some serious crisis counseling going.
Feel like that would have made the news, and there is zero indication that is true.
re: Wow, the MSM has done a 180
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/2/20 at 9:26 pm
(No Message)
re: CARES Act 2021 (or similar) and Retirement Account Penalty Waiver
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/2/20 at 5:55 pm
The relief only applies in the event the distribution is an approved CRD, as defined under IRS Notice 2020-50 as:
•an individual (or the spouse or a dependent of that individual) who is diagnosed with COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 in an approved test;
•a spouse or a member of the individual’s household being:
-quarantined, furloughed or laid off or having work
hours reduced due to COVID-19
-being unable to work due to lack of childcare due to
COVID-19
-having a reduction in pay due to COVID-19;
-having a job offer rescinded or start date for a job
delayed due to COVID-19;
-closing or reducing hours of a business owned or
operated by the individual’s spouse or a member of
the individual’s household due to COVID-19
•or an individual who suffers from other factors as determined by the Secretary of the Treasury.
•an individual (or the spouse or a dependent of that individual) who is diagnosed with COVID-19 or SARS-CoV-2 in an approved test;
•a spouse or a member of the individual’s household being:
-quarantined, furloughed or laid off or having work
hours reduced due to COVID-19
-being unable to work due to lack of childcare due to
COVID-19
-having a reduction in pay due to COVID-19;
-having a job offer rescinded or start date for a job
delayed due to COVID-19;
-closing or reducing hours of a business owned or
operated by the individual’s spouse or a member of
the individual’s household due to COVID-19
•or an individual who suffers from other factors as determined by the Secretary of the Treasury.
re: Arrest made in Phi Psi criminal hazing case
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 11/2/20 at 5:52 pm
She didn't call 911, and that is why she felt responsible for him having to be hospitalized.
Those feelings were magnified by members of the fraternity and her sorority telling her she should have known how bad his condition was when he was dropped off, suggesting she should have called 911. I have no idea if drugs were involved, either taken by him willingly or given to him.
I have no idea if members actually had to climb through the window or not. But at some point members of the fraternity retrieved him from the apartment and took him to the hospital, as reported in the article.
She was a freshman. I can't count how many times I put people on couches or beds to sleep it off, many with BAC levels that I'm positive were extremely elevated, as I'm sure many of us have. Getting someone home always felt like the finish line, and barring the accusations of forced drugs, I'm sure she thought she was doing the right thing by letting him sleep it off.
Those feelings were magnified by members of the fraternity and her sorority telling her she should have known how bad his condition was when he was dropped off, suggesting she should have called 911. I have no idea if drugs were involved, either taken by him willingly or given to him.
I have no idea if members actually had to climb through the window or not. But at some point members of the fraternity retrieved him from the apartment and took him to the hospital, as reported in the article.
She was a freshman. I can't count how many times I put people on couches or beds to sleep it off, many with BAC levels that I'm positive were extremely elevated, as I'm sure many of us have. Getting someone home always felt like the finish line, and barring the accusations of forced drugs, I'm sure she thought she was doing the right thing by letting him sleep it off.
re: Phi Psi at LSU suspended
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/30/20 at 3:44 pm
quote:
But it does seem that some frats have more a-holes, not sure how that happens.
Because they are a social group the same as any other social group, and like attracts like.
Sometimes people try and paint them as some sort of monolith and make sweeping generalizations. But as most people will attest, they are separate groups of people associated through similar interests.
re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/28/20 at 4:44 pm
quote:
Nope, what I'm advocating for is the elimination of ridiculously broad brush strokes in these types of threads. I've explicitly highlighted multiple times that buy and hold has been a winning strategy the majority of the time. I'm simply saying that anyone with an investment horizon as short as the OP's should go into his twilight working years as wide-eyed as possible. We're at valuation levels that have historically resulted in poor risk-adjusted returns for stocks, and that's relative to prior periods when the Federal Reserve and Federal Government each had much more monetary / fiscal capacity available at their disposal.
It is easy to say "valuation is high so your 10 year prospects for return are low." You have to carry it to its logical extension if it is to be of any real value. If now is not the time to invest, when is? Using your 1929 value, when would Ol’ Grandad have gotten in? To keep things simple I will keep using September values.
Would it have been Sept. 1930, when the CAPE was 21? First year of the Great Depression. Hmmm, probably not. Good thing, he would have underperformed the cash savings approach over the next 10 years.
How about Sept. 1931, CAPE is at 15 then, looking better! Ooof, unemployment is over 16% and the US is experiencing the Dust Bowl. Darn. Another good miss, as he would have underperformed cash again.
1932,1933,1934, all the same. Underperform cash, all while looking at an attractive CAPE ratio value of just over 10.
For Grandpa to beat the "stick it in the bank" approach over 10 years, he would have had to wait to put his money in until 1935. In 1935, CAPE is now over 14, higher than the average of 13.5 starting in 1900 up to that point. Germany is beginning to marshal an army as fascism spreads across Europe. Put it in the year that FDR passes the Social Security Act, when unemployment is still over 20%. Or, more likely, he does what people do when they fall prey to these behavioral biases, and he stays on the sideline, waiting for the perfect time to get in.
Point is, you can say it isn’t timing, but it is. The approach necessitates buying back in at some future date.
re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/28/20 at 1:37 pm
The average Shiller CAPE ratio for that July 2013 to today has been 27.9. Where is your threshold for "extreme overvaluation"?
If the 1929 period is your yardstick that qualifies as a sustained period, nearly every one of those 77 qualifies, as the ratio was only above 30 for 2 months in 1929.
I don't know what to tell you. Overvalued means exceeding the average value in this case. But I will play along as this will be my last post in this thread because I feel like it is getting derailed.
The Shiller CAPE Ratio was spot on 30 July 1st 2017. I chose that date because the most recent time before that it was 30 or higher was March of 2002.
From July of 2017 till today, the ratio has averaged 30.14, and only dipped below 25 in one month out of 41.
The S&P 500 total return for that time frame was over 44%. Again, what could be life changing amounts of money.
Starting valuation matters, but what you are advocating is timing, and the CAPE ratio is a poor signal for timing, as it turns out most things are.
If the 1929 period is your yardstick that qualifies as a sustained period, nearly every one of those 77 qualifies, as the ratio was only above 30 for 2 months in 1929.
I don't know what to tell you. Overvalued means exceeding the average value in this case. But I will play along as this will be my last post in this thread because I feel like it is getting derailed.
The Shiller CAPE Ratio was spot on 30 July 1st 2017. I chose that date because the most recent time before that it was 30 or higher was March of 2002.
From July of 2017 till today, the ratio has averaged 30.14, and only dipped below 25 in one month out of 41.
The S&P 500 total return for that time frame was over 44%. Again, what could be life changing amounts of money.
Starting valuation matters, but what you are advocating is timing, and the CAPE ratio is a poor signal for timing, as it turns out most things are.
re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/28/20 at 12:50 pm
I didn't cherry pick anything. As I stated, I chose March 2013 because February 2013 was the last time the Shiller CAPE Ratio was below the average level as measured since 1980.
If the market has gotten smarter since 1999, it has certainly gotten smarter since 1929. Who is cherry picking now?
Additionally, I'm not sure where you are getting your information. For apples to apples, I am using the data provided by multpl.com found at LINK
Going back to 1871, there have been 79 times where the ratio was above 30, where it is now. Going back to 1980, a more reflective time frame, the number is 77. So there have in fact been 77 times where the ratio is higher than it is currently.
More telling, there have been 252 months since 1980 where the ratio was above the average of 22.39, which would be considered overvalued.
I'm sorry the chart didn't work, I will fix that.
If the market has gotten smarter since 1999, it has certainly gotten smarter since 1929. Who is cherry picking now?
Additionally, I'm not sure where you are getting your information. For apples to apples, I am using the data provided by multpl.com found at LINK
Going back to 1871, there have been 79 times where the ratio was above 30, where it is now. Going back to 1980, a more reflective time frame, the number is 77. So there have in fact been 77 times where the ratio is higher than it is currently.
More telling, there have been 252 months since 1980 where the ratio was above the average of 22.39, which would be considered overvalued.
I'm sorry the chart didn't work, I will fix that.
re: Caregiver costs
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/28/20 at 11:57 am
Consult a tax professional, but medical expenses (including qualified long-term care) are an itemized deduction in the event that they exceed 7.5% of your Adjusted Gross Income.
At $3,500 a month for 12 months that is $42,000 a year, easily exceeding the standard deduction meaning you would itemize, and unless you are making over $500k a year, would exceed 7.5% of your AGI.
At $3,500 a month for 12 months that is $42,000 a year, easily exceeding the standard deduction meaning you would itemize, and unless you are making over $500k a year, would exceed 7.5% of your AGI.
re: Retiring in Iraq?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/28/20 at 10:55 am
re: Should I move my 401k money to the cash option ahead of the election?
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/28/20 at 10:32 am
quote:
Your response is likewise reasonable. I hate even getting into this discussion on this board because buy and hold and buy more and hold more forever is the right strategy for the overwhelming majority of people with any significant amount of time between now and retirement.
I simply like to interject in these threads from time to time (which someone starts at least once a month) to note that "buy and hold and nothing can go wrong and anything short of that means you're taking on the impossible" has attained an almost religious fervor that I think can be unhealthy at times. Is it true this is the right prescription for most people with a long-term investment horizon? Yes. But is it also true that most periods in stock market history were not nearly as overvalued as today, particularly when looked at on a risk-adjusted basis? Yes, of course that is also true.
So there's a difference between asking the OP's question in most years and asking the OP's question from where we sit in the here and now in October 2020. I believe the collective knowledge of the MT is sophisticated enough to bring a little more nuance to the table in these conversations:
LINK
Except nuance is exactly what is missing from your post. Of course academically it makes sense to sell an overvalued asset, but you blow by the practical application of investing in that idea by saying "Timing the exit and re-entry will of course be difficult." That is the point that is being made, that the timing is exceptionally difficult, and in the end you are likely to have experienced lower returns than if you had just stayed invested.
The Shiller PE is a perfect example of this in fact. Below is the Shiller CAPE Ratio and the level of the S&P 500 since 1980. An annotation for the average level of the CAPE Ratio has been added.
As you can see, the CAPE ratio can be at elevated levels for extended periods while the market continues to perform well. Note the period beginning March of 2013 till, well, today. The CAPE has been above its average of 22.3 that entire time, and the S&P 500 had a total return of 150% over the same period. Those are life altering returns to miss out on while you wait for the market to become "more fairly valued."
re: Phi Psi at LSU suspended
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/27/20 at 8:07 pm
Whether other people made the same mistake is irrelevant, it doesn’t change what the sentence says.
You seem really hung up about a group of people that you say you don’t care for. My point was the same of yours, fraternities are really no different than any other group. I’m sure the game nights you and your friends put on were absolute ragers.
You seem really hung up about a group of people that you say you don’t care for. My point was the same of yours, fraternities are really no different than any other group. I’m sure the game nights you and your friends put on were absolute ragers.
re: Phi Psi at LSU suspended
Posted by CrawfishOfWallstreet on 10/27/20 at 7:18 pm
You should consider asking for a refund for some of that college education then. Your interpretation of the sentence makes no sense.
If he believed that bid day was the best day of his life, then by extension it makes no sense that he would be implying the day you didn’t get a bid would be the best day or your life.
And while you may call it “buying your friends”, I would say it’s more like pooling your money with friends to have larger parties. Really no different then you and your friends splitting a party sub and a case of RC Cola, or whatever you did.
If he believed that bid day was the best day of his life, then by extension it makes no sense that he would be implying the day you didn’t get a bid would be the best day or your life.
And while you may call it “buying your friends”, I would say it’s more like pooling your money with friends to have larger parties. Really no different then you and your friends splitting a party sub and a case of RC Cola, or whatever you did.
Popular
19
