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re: Red! Green!! Red! Green!!
Posted on 9/1/26 at 3:52 pm to The Scofflaw
Posted on 9/1/26 at 3:52 pm to The Scofflaw
quote:
I got a feeling a big volatility event is coming. Anyone else?
maybe it's just gas or indigestion.
Posted on 9/1/26 at 8:28 pm to The Scofflaw
Aren’t you going to have a big tax hit?
Posted on 9/1/26 at 9:05 pm to SlidellCajun
quote:
Aren’t you going to have a big tax hit?
MMF in 401k account.
Posted on 9/2/26 at 3:14 am to The Scofflaw
quote:
and went to almost all cash. I got a feeling a big volatility event is coming. Anyone else?
What triggers this? I mean it could happen but to go almost all cash on a feeling. Guess at some point someone will time this just right and be able to brag.
Posted on 9/2/26 at 7:33 am to FLObserver
A case can be made for selling
-War
-Interest rate direction appears to be up
-Political environment is tenuous with November midterms looming
- September has historically been a down month
Tax implications are important though. I don’t see much point in selling in a taxable account if you’re just going to buy back.
-War
-Interest rate direction appears to be up
-Political environment is tenuous with November midterms looming
- September has historically been a down month
Tax implications are important though. I don’t see much point in selling in a taxable account if you’re just going to buy back.
Posted on 9/2/26 at 7:42 am to SlidellCajun
Rate hikes
Oil
War
Midterms
AI already run heavily + data center opposition
I’m in agreement with the people on this thread seeing the issues and divesting. There’s also some data I’ve seen suggesting we may be about to enter a 2022 type market trough, as tech is diverging to the downside from the market as a whole, which also happened in late 2021-early 2022 and preceded a bear market
Oil
War
Midterms
AI already run heavily + data center opposition
I’m in agreement with the people on this thread seeing the issues and divesting. There’s also some data I’ve seen suggesting we may be about to enter a 2022 type market trough, as tech is diverging to the downside from the market as a whole, which also happened in late 2021-early 2022 and preceded a bear market
Posted on 9/2/26 at 10:20 am to FLObserver
quote:
What triggers this? I mean it could happen but to go almost all cash on a feeling. Guess at some point someone will time this just right and be able to brag.
Stock correlations hit an all time low with Vix going sub-15, Generally, it precedes market volatility when either happens. It is not a crystal ball, but I think it is a a good barometer to take risk off or at least hedge via puts and / or energy.
Posted on 9/2/26 at 3:07 pm to Upperdecker
Taken from dailyspeculations.com; posted by Steve Ellison in 2024 and called the wall of worry.
EDIT: I'm posting the chart without my own commentary.
EDIT: I'm posting the chart without my own commentary.
This post was edited on 9/2/26 at 3:09 pm
Posted on 9/2/26 at 3:43 pm to Omada
Always climbing the wall of worry....always climbing... While the bears prove their patience waiting for their opportunity to finally say TOLD YA SO!!!
Posted on 9/2/26 at 4:49 pm to RoyalWe
With a 5 year window left for growth before having to switch to a more income oriented portfolio (retirement), would you guys be wary about staying in right now? I don’t have the time to go through another big dip that could take years to recover from. I’m fairly happy with what I have right now and could switch over to money market (3.7%) until all these headwinds ease up. Is it a mistake for me to go to cash (mm) and sit on the sidelines since my timeline is roughly only 5 years? My gut is telling me something substantial is coming down road. Any opinions are welcome and greatly appreciated.
Posted on 9/2/26 at 5:11 pm to Lsu05
quote:
I don’t have the time to go through another big dip that could take years to recover from. I’m fairly happy with what I have right now and could switch over to money market (3.7%)
You answered your own question. Reduce your market exposure to 20-30% and sleep well at night.
Posted on 9/2/26 at 5:23 pm to vistajay
What about long term bonds? 8-15 more years left on them. Should I be reducing my exposure to these as well so they don’t turn me upside down should interest rates keep increasing and don’t come back down? Just asking opinions from other people besides my financial advisors. They don’t get paid unless my money is invested so their advice is pretty predictable.
Posted on 9/2/26 at 6:06 pm to Lsu05
I'm retired and take more risk than most people, so I'm probably not the one to ask. Having said that, yes, I would start moving from whatever your current strategy is to your new strategy within 3 to 5 years of retirement.
If you want my gut, I'm less optimistic in the short-term (inflation -> Fed raising rates; Iran; government spending). Long-term I believe the market will rise (AI, market rising with inflation) -- unless the delta between the haves and have nots results in the second American Revolution.
I generally have funds set aside to take advantage of dips. A prolonged down market can diminish those reserves as I continue to buy. If you don't want to risk losing significant ground and having to work longer than you planned, then invest accordingly.
There are several new managed bond funds that are showing above average returns for their market segment.
What is your retirement strategy (ignoring a volatile market)?
If you want my gut, I'm less optimistic in the short-term (inflation -> Fed raising rates; Iran; government spending). Long-term I believe the market will rise (AI, market rising with inflation) -- unless the delta between the haves and have nots results in the second American Revolution.
I generally have funds set aside to take advantage of dips. A prolonged down market can diminish those reserves as I continue to buy. If you don't want to risk losing significant ground and having to work longer than you planned, then invest accordingly.
There are several new managed bond funds that are showing above average returns for their market segment.
What is your retirement strategy (ignoring a volatile market)?
Posted on 9/2/26 at 6:40 pm to RoyalWe
Thanks for your insight. My plan is to build my net worth as much as I can in the next 5 years. If I can get to my goal number, taking 5% a month should cover my lifestyle and month to month expenses. So at that point, I would be in more bonds, blue chip dividend stocks, etc that would give me cash flow plus growth over time. But my concern is that if we have another 2022 type event where interest rates spike and stocks plunge, I’ll be worse off in 5 years getting to my goal than I would have been just pulling it now, going in money market, and reinvesting in any major dips. I’m almost to where I want to be, I don’t want to ruin that. It is definitely keeping me up at night because I’ve made it this far, I don’t want risk going in reverse and not being able to correct the course before retirement.
Posted on 9/15/26 at 9:41 am to Lsu05
Might be time to change the title of this thread for a while.
Posted on 9/15/26 at 10:29 am to Sus-Scrofa
Add a few "RED, RED, RED" and we'll be good.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 1:56 pm to RoyalWe
Bump for the quality pop today
Posted on 9/21/26 at 2:13 pm to Sum3rian
Posted on 9/21/26 at 2:28 pm to Sum3rian
Hopefully this will be a new trend and not be followed by red red red.
Posted on 9/21/26 at 2:38 pm to Sum3rian
big day over here. Portfolio up 7% and back to all time high (no trades since then)
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