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Posted on 1/21/16 at 12:09 pm to GoIrish02
quote:
Let the pros manage the fund to follow the industry index because you're not an analyst and splitting hairs among Exxon, Conoco, BP and Phillips 66 is a waste of time if it's not your full time job.
This sounds like what i should do. I dont have any money in anything yet, but i could see how this could get addicting. Rolling the dice but with a little skill.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 12:11 pm to GoIrish02
Bought MRO at 7.18 yesterday and dumped it today at 8.78..
Never made that kinda 1 day profit
Never made that kinda 1 day profit
Posted on 1/21/16 at 1:11 pm to TROLA
just saw what MRO has been up too.
can't believe i've been this out of tune over the last year. and talk about terrible timing to be.
this is nuts
can't believe i've been this out of tune over the last year. and talk about terrible timing to be.
this is nuts
Posted on 1/21/16 at 4:10 pm to donRANDOMnumbers
LINK
It's Seeking Alpha, slightly more worthless than The Street dot Com, and the rest of the blogs, paid and free.
I post this only as it highlights the disconnect (today's disconnect) between the release of the Gubmit report and sentiment.
The storage report is in arrears. Obviously, but the oil report is much more in arrears than natural gas as an example, and even CPI (CPI-U actually) for reasons I've posted elsewhere.
You'd really need to get next Tuesday's COT, and pare away commercial hedgers from speculators to draw any type of conclusion based on very short term future's contract price movements. I assume the guys that trade commodity contracts on here do this. At least I would hope they do.
On another interesting, and somewhat related topic, I received & read through Bank of America's Private Client Group report on oil prices and earnings. It is very different from what they released publically. Interesting. Now it is true the two reports are for two different sets of retail investors, and the high net worth group has part of its efforts focused on speculation, although largely capital preservation and conservative growth.
So I get curious about bank earnings and when they're released. I know some dates already as I own the bank stocks, but don't own all of them. So I go looking. And I find a bunch of stuff about banks writing down oil loans. Late this afternoon I call BoA private client group and ask about bank writedowns, specifically oil writedowns. He forwards their research, and it's revealing. Now, I'm not saying I trade on this. I really don't trade per se. And I'm not saying I'll invest on this either. It's a lot of information to digest. I'm just saying I'm waiting on bank earnings for any major position purchases. Especially oil related. And I'm saying there is a lot that goes into this stuff for me.
The majority of my decline this year has been energy. Almost all of it actually. Thank God for portfolio insurance. So I think going forward, I'm changing my insurance with respect to VIX protection. Attempting to insure about 50% of my portfolio for a 25% drop. No clear answer as to how much VIX for this. I've made money on VIX recently. I never intended to. It was always intended as insurance, and apparently I way over insured. The results were nice however. Very nice. Also, I've always had major oil companies, as does almost everyone else on here it seems. I talk mostly about CVX as this is the only one I'm currently active in (buying) for reasons already stated (possibly correct, possibly incorrect). I didn't know until today, and this is very stupid of me, I can, and could have bought the oil VIX. Likely too late for that now.
It's Seeking Alpha, slightly more worthless than The Street dot Com, and the rest of the blogs, paid and free.
I post this only as it highlights the disconnect (today's disconnect) between the release of the Gubmit report and sentiment.
The storage report is in arrears. Obviously, but the oil report is much more in arrears than natural gas as an example, and even CPI (CPI-U actually) for reasons I've posted elsewhere.
You'd really need to get next Tuesday's COT, and pare away commercial hedgers from speculators to draw any type of conclusion based on very short term future's contract price movements. I assume the guys that trade commodity contracts on here do this. At least I would hope they do.
On another interesting, and somewhat related topic, I received & read through Bank of America's Private Client Group report on oil prices and earnings. It is very different from what they released publically. Interesting. Now it is true the two reports are for two different sets of retail investors, and the high net worth group has part of its efforts focused on speculation, although largely capital preservation and conservative growth.
So I get curious about bank earnings and when they're released. I know some dates already as I own the bank stocks, but don't own all of them. So I go looking. And I find a bunch of stuff about banks writing down oil loans. Late this afternoon I call BoA private client group and ask about bank writedowns, specifically oil writedowns. He forwards their research, and it's revealing. Now, I'm not saying I trade on this. I really don't trade per se. And I'm not saying I'll invest on this either. It's a lot of information to digest. I'm just saying I'm waiting on bank earnings for any major position purchases. Especially oil related. And I'm saying there is a lot that goes into this stuff for me.
The majority of my decline this year has been energy. Almost all of it actually. Thank God for portfolio insurance. So I think going forward, I'm changing my insurance with respect to VIX protection. Attempting to insure about 50% of my portfolio for a 25% drop. No clear answer as to how much VIX for this. I've made money on VIX recently. I never intended to. It was always intended as insurance, and apparently I way over insured. The results were nice however. Very nice. Also, I've always had major oil companies, as does almost everyone else on here it seems. I talk mostly about CVX as this is the only one I'm currently active in (buying) for reasons already stated (possibly correct, possibly incorrect). I didn't know until today, and this is very stupid of me, I can, and could have bought the oil VIX. Likely too late for that now.
Posted on 1/21/16 at 10:24 pm to Iowa Golfer
quote:What?
Oil stocks
LINK
It's Seeking Alpha, slightly more worthless than The Street dot Com, and the rest of the blogs, paid and free.
I post this only as it highlights the disconnect (today's disconnect) between the release of the Gubmit report and sentiment.
The storage report is in arrears. Obviously, but the oil report is much more in arrears than natural gas as an example, and even CPI (CPI-U actually) for reasons I've posted elsewhere.
You'd really need to get next Tuesday's COT, and pare away commercial hedgers from speculators to draw any type of conclusion based on very short term future's contract price movements. I assume the guys that trade commodity contracts on here do this. At least I would hope they do.
On another interesting, and somewhat related topic, I received & read through Bank of America's Private Client Group report on oil prices and earnings. It is very different from what they released publically. Interesting. Now it is true the two reports are for two different sets of retail investors, and the high net worth group has part of its efforts focused on speculation, although largely capital preservation and conservative growth.
So I get curious about bank earnings and when they're released. I know some dates already as I own the bank stocks, but don't own all of them. So I go looking. And I find a bunch of stuff about banks writing down oil loans. Late this afternoon I call BoA private client group and ask about bank writedowns, specifically oil writedowns. He forwards their research, and it's revealing. Now, I'm not saying I trade on this. I really don't trade per se. And I'm not saying I'll invest on this either. It's a lot of information to digest. I'm just saying I'm waiting on bank earnings for any major position purchases. Especially oil related. And I'm saying there is a lot that goes into this stuff for me.
The majority of my decline this year has been energy. Almost all of it actually. Thank God for portfolio insurance. So I think going forward, I'm changing my insurance with respect to VIX protection. Attempting to insure about 50% of my portfolio for a 25% drop. No clear answer as to how much VIX for this. I've made money on VIX recently. I never intended to. It was always intended as insurance, and apparently I way over insured. The results were nice however. Very nice. Also, I've always had major oil companies, as does almost everyone else on here it seems. I talk mostly about CVX as this is the only one I'm currently active in (buying) for reasons already stated (possibly correct, possibly incorrect). I didn't know until today, and this is very stupid of me, I can, and could have bought the oil VIX. Likely too late for that now.
Posted on 1/22/16 at 8:48 am to LSURussian
Likely a temporary blip, but possibly time to purchase oil stock insurance? It's just tough to buy insurance after we've seen the majority of the drop, and the premiums are close to highs.
Fr such a simpleton, conservative thing, I really, really made a big mistake. Somewhat mitigated by the VIX, but some sort of combination of VIX and OVX was probably more appropriate for my present situation.
Stupid, stupid, stupid. But I'll try to learn form this, and in the future better insure my portfolio from markets like the one we're presently in. I think ultimately the claim paid, so to speak, would have been the same, but the premium by insuring by sector would have been less.
VIX insurance per $100K of portfolio value was running about $500 per month, but the estimating of how much is very difficult. The fact I made money on it shows I bought too much. Obviously the premium now is very, very large, although in out months it seems to be moderating.
Fr such a simpleton, conservative thing, I really, really made a big mistake. Somewhat mitigated by the VIX, but some sort of combination of VIX and OVX was probably more appropriate for my present situation.
Stupid, stupid, stupid. But I'll try to learn form this, and in the future better insure my portfolio from markets like the one we're presently in. I think ultimately the claim paid, so to speak, would have been the same, but the premium by insuring by sector would have been less.
VIX insurance per $100K of portfolio value was running about $500 per month, but the estimating of how much is very difficult. The fact I made money on it shows I bought too much. Obviously the premium now is very, very large, although in out months it seems to be moderating.
This post was edited on 1/22/16 at 8:50 am
Posted on 1/22/16 at 2:06 pm to Iowa Golfer
Rig count down fairly significantly depending on which measure you use.
I thought I read this morning 68% from its high count when this all started.
I thought I read this morning 68% from its high count when this all started.
Posted on 1/23/16 at 6:59 am to Iowa Golfer
Posted on 1/23/16 at 8:21 am to RebelOP
I've been concerned with industrial metals for quite some time now. The recently adjusted world GDP seems to be starting to catch up with lack of demand for these. And China is the most telling. I watch copper generally, and I own X, AA and Minnesota Mining and Manufacturing.
I don't know if the sky is falling or not, but this along with what I consider way overvalued American equities is reason enough for me to step back.
With respect to oil, I think the mid $20's, at worst, are likely the bottom. But the guys on here (and elsewhere) talking about it staying sideways in that range for a long period of time have caused to to rethink the entry points for more oil based investments. I had first thought pick a price, and obviously pick a time. Mostly assuming it would be a traditional bottoming out, and not really considering for how long.
Again, really the only oil stock I've bought recently is CVX, and a small additional tranche of ERN. I have been watching MMM though. I hold X. I hold and trade AA. The trading of AA literally has nothing to do with fundamentals.
Most of the talking heads are opposed to X and AA in someone's portfolio. With respect to MMM, for whatever reason this stock doesn't seem to get any love, but has certainly been very consistent in terms of both growth and income. It's really one of my favorite stocks.
I don't know if the sky is falling or not, but this along with what I consider way overvalued American equities is reason enough for me to step back.
With respect to oil, I think the mid $20's, at worst, are likely the bottom. But the guys on here (and elsewhere) talking about it staying sideways in that range for a long period of time have caused to to rethink the entry points for more oil based investments. I had first thought pick a price, and obviously pick a time. Mostly assuming it would be a traditional bottoming out, and not really considering for how long.
Again, really the only oil stock I've bought recently is CVX, and a small additional tranche of ERN. I have been watching MMM though. I hold X. I hold and trade AA. The trading of AA literally has nothing to do with fundamentals.
Most of the talking heads are opposed to X and AA in someone's portfolio. With respect to MMM, for whatever reason this stock doesn't seem to get any love, but has certainly been very consistent in terms of both growth and income. It's really one of my favorite stocks.
Posted on 1/23/16 at 8:36 am to Iowa Golfer
Do you do any covered call writing? I've got X myself and have been selling calls against it to help reduce basis. If you do coverd call writing, generally what delta or how far OTM do you go?
Posted on 1/23/16 at 9:23 am to RebelOP
Yes, I consider covered calls to be as conservative as one can get, and don't understand why more don't do it.
I don't get into delta, I just randomly pick some OTM call and sell it, hoping it doesn't get called away. But if it does, it's at a level I make money at, so I don't put much time into it. But I also don't sell covered calls for my entire holding of a single stock. So on X for example, if I owned 20K shares, I'd sell maybe 90 covered calls monthly. If I remember. Not very sophisticated, but I don't want to be glued to a computer screen 24/7 either. It's Saturday morning, and I'll spend 2-3 hours doing some business related things, including looking at my positions for next week. That's enough of my free time already. And I take about an hour (at least) every early afternoon. It's winter up here, and I'm actually up here for about another three weeks, so it's no big deal. When I go south, I don't even look at it. Summer hardly ever either.
Back in the NBG days, I sold covered calls on that one all the time. I did on ERN as well. The underlying security on both of these not performing well at all. I'm not like some guys on here where every single trade they make is successful. I wish I was. Because again, when someone posts their trades on the internet, and they are always successful, being from the Midwest I find this hugely believable. In some alternate reality I guess, because it's not been my experience. I endeavor to have more good investments/trades than bad investments/trades, and I generally do, but not at the alleged success rate of some others on here. Last year was pretty brutal (in terms of what I actually sold at a loss), but caused relatively little harm long term. But is wasn't pretty, that's a fact. Actually, 2014 and 2015 were pretty bad. But I have dividend income to offset this, and I don't reinvest all of this. e.g., I draw some dividends to offset trading losses should they occur. Which again, they have recently.
But when I trade, I'm not really trading as defined by FINRA, I'm doing things like buying regional insurance companies, based on weather, prior to Q2 earnings release.
Look, I bought my first stock when I was 15 or 16. A company called Gulf and Western. I made my first mistake when I sold a lot of it, and bought a used Ford Thunderbird before I went to college. I didn't learn the lesson about cars and homes being non performing assets until my late 20's to early 30's. So I'm not a genius.
I don't get into delta, I just randomly pick some OTM call and sell it, hoping it doesn't get called away. But if it does, it's at a level I make money at, so I don't put much time into it. But I also don't sell covered calls for my entire holding of a single stock. So on X for example, if I owned 20K shares, I'd sell maybe 90 covered calls monthly. If I remember. Not very sophisticated, but I don't want to be glued to a computer screen 24/7 either. It's Saturday morning, and I'll spend 2-3 hours doing some business related things, including looking at my positions for next week. That's enough of my free time already. And I take about an hour (at least) every early afternoon. It's winter up here, and I'm actually up here for about another three weeks, so it's no big deal. When I go south, I don't even look at it. Summer hardly ever either.
Back in the NBG days, I sold covered calls on that one all the time. I did on ERN as well. The underlying security on both of these not performing well at all. I'm not like some guys on here where every single trade they make is successful. I wish I was. Because again, when someone posts their trades on the internet, and they are always successful, being from the Midwest I find this hugely believable. In some alternate reality I guess, because it's not been my experience. I endeavor to have more good investments/trades than bad investments/trades, and I generally do, but not at the alleged success rate of some others on here. Last year was pretty brutal (in terms of what I actually sold at a loss), but caused relatively little harm long term. But is wasn't pretty, that's a fact. Actually, 2014 and 2015 were pretty bad. But I have dividend income to offset this, and I don't reinvest all of this. e.g., I draw some dividends to offset trading losses should they occur. Which again, they have recently.
But when I trade, I'm not really trading as defined by FINRA, I'm doing things like buying regional insurance companies, based on weather, prior to Q2 earnings release.
Look, I bought my first stock when I was 15 or 16. A company called Gulf and Western. I made my first mistake when I sold a lot of it, and bought a used Ford Thunderbird before I went to college. I didn't learn the lesson about cars and homes being non performing assets until my late 20's to early 30's. So I'm not a genius.
Posted on 1/23/16 at 9:27 am to Iowa Golfer
quote:
Back in the NBG days
I don't know whether to laugh or cry
Posted on 1/23/16 at 9:36 am to windshieldman
What I've done with respect to NBG is not be emotional about it. I had some as high as $4. But going in I understood it was part of my speculative portion of assets, and the percentage I allocated was appropriate for my personal situation.
It's just sits as one holding now, cluttering up my platform. At this point it is a worthless security. ERN isn't quite there yet, it certainly could be, but I'm still taking a bullish position on it. I could very well be wrong. I'll find out when everyone else does, really no sooner.
But I should also say INO was part of my speculative portfolio. And there was one guy on here who had done a lot of due diligence on it. I did some as well, and that one turned out well. I bought and sold the security at a modest gain, and I traded (pretty actively) options around it. It's sold. I haven't looked at it since.
It's just sits as one holding now, cluttering up my platform. At this point it is a worthless security. ERN isn't quite there yet, it certainly could be, but I'm still taking a bullish position on it. I could very well be wrong. I'll find out when everyone else does, really no sooner.
But I should also say INO was part of my speculative portfolio. And there was one guy on here who had done a lot of due diligence on it. I did some as well, and that one turned out well. I bought and sold the security at a modest gain, and I traded (pretty actively) options around it. It's sold. I haven't looked at it since.
Posted on 1/23/16 at 11:16 am to LSUneaux
quote:
ConocoPhillips (COP) is now dividend yielding nearly 7.5%.
Sold puts on and bought COP and XLE. Going to hold and collect dividends until prices go up and then will start selling calls
This post was edited on 1/23/16 at 11:20 am
Posted on 1/26/16 at 4:38 pm to WiscyTiger
API: Largest inventory build since 1996. 11 Million bbl.
Posted on 1/26/16 at 4:46 pm to LSU1NSEC
Just what I've been waiting for, hopefully everything tanks tomorrow so I can add on.
Posted on 1/26/16 at 4:57 pm to LSU1NSEC
When did that come out? Oil stocks were all up today
Posted on 1/26/16 at 5:01 pm to TigerTatorTots
Middle off today's range current contract. Both WTI and Brent. Recovered about half way from the day's low.
Posted on 1/26/16 at 5:14 pm to TigerTatorTots
quote:
When did that come out? Oil stocks were all up today
Just read about it on investing.com
CNBC reported it also.
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