re: Nebius - NBIS - AI Infrastructure Company

big bounce back from being down 7% this morning to almost even. Picked up some more shares this morning close to 300 shares now.
Selling weekly covered calls to gain premium on the volatility.

Looks like the shorts are having a run at the end of the day. I'll still take it, compared to where we were this morning...

Eeeeesssshhhhh. What the hell happened here?

Looking at AVGO. Don't think I've ever owned a stock that dropped $46 in one day.

Solid analogy. I did buy some WMT with my call premium though

The reality is that the sentiment for AI has drifted negative. We all should have seen it coming when NBIS was nearing $140 but were blinded by our past success. It’s been a lesson in greed vs fear in investing.

This is evident as these companies post record earnings but still drop…which has been happening consistently since the last earnings cycle. I own NBIS and expect them to be a survivor long term but am not expecting aggressive climbs like we had earlier without some substantial news or other catalyst.

What this stock did teach me though is that a lot of money can be made during the euphoria phase and to manage risk with position sizing. I was much more exposed than I should have been during the end of the run up and gave back most of my gains when it turned. I count myself fortunate though as I’m still above where I started by a good %.

Currently i wont be surprised to see $26

The question is not "what will NBIS stock be worth in a year?". I believe the question you have to ask is, "Is GenerAI the future, or is it going to wither on the vine?".

We havent even started to tap into the potential of AI. Are we willing to cede the AI race to China? I would say that we cant afford to take that chance. What if we had decided 60 years ago that we didn't like nuclear weapons and just let the Soviet Union win the arms race?

To believe that AI is not worth pursuing is to say that self driving cars are not going to happen. Or that medical breakthroughs in diagnosing diseases and developing cures based on genetics is not worth pursuing. That computer generated code is a waste of time.

The $200 price scenario would show that the AI movement still has wheels and that American visionaries are all in on AI and will continue to invest in it for the foreseeable future.

The $100 price is more likely a scenario where we are still investing in AI, but we're going to scale back a bit.

The $26 price is a AI is withering on the vine scenario.

Scenario 1 is the most likely, in my book. We are very early in the game as far as enterprise adaption goes. That's the next big wave.

Ive about had enough, about to take profits and be done for a while.

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Ive about had enough, about to take profits and be done for a while.

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This is a stock to either hang onto long term, or to day trade. It is not a good choice to buy for a quick buck, at least not right now.

I bought in May, and if you had told me then, that I would have 275% profits by year end, I would have been ecstatic. It feels disappointing because of where the stock was 6 weeks ago, and the fact that I did get a little more aggressive than I should have with options. But I am mostly invested in shares

I am hanging on because I dont really see a clear choice of a stock that will make me more money in the next six months based on valuation price, and management team, than this one.

As I said earlier, the one thing that coud derail this is that demand for compute goes down... I don't see that happening, as the enterprise demand is just getting started. I could be wrong, but that is my belief.

I have thought about selling and coming back, but it is liberating to just have shares and not to have to worry about whether it goes up or down this week, or next. As long as the Arkady and company keep running the company well, I'm hanging on until at least May, when my shares will convert to the long term capital gains rate. Hopefully, the stock will get some love between now and then...