itsbigmikey

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Make a thread! Make a thread!

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Lead the way! I lurk more than I post but will contribute wherever I can. Will also continue to monitor the ST discord and post relevant info wherever/whenever necessary

Looks like some old mentions in there but nothing from ST directly within the last year that I can find

BALLARD POWER $BLDP

**OVERVIEW**

I believe this is one of the most compelling charts on the entire market and also one of the most compelling sympathy trades, as one of the only peers to both Bloom Energy $BE and FuelCell $FCEL, which have both been parabolic stocks.??

Ballard is a high-optionality hydrogen fuel-cell platform with a unusually strong cash balance for its size, improving gross margins, and credible OEM relationships in buses, rail, marine, and stationary/data-center power.

In the last earnings call, Ballard's CEO Marty Neese explicitly said that the data center opportunity is an area of deep exploration for the company and they plan to pivot into it going forward. Snapshot from the earnings call attached with the charts below.

Diesel generators face emissions, permitting, noise, and runtime concerns. Data-center operators still need reliable backup power. Hydrogen fuel cells can provide zero on-site emissions.

Ballard’s data centers use case shines where PEM fuel cells can support reduced time-to-power, backup power, complementary power, rapid ramping, cycling flexibility, reliability, low noise, and modular multi-MW deployment.

The company has a real business and trades at just 2.3x cash and 2x book with revenues +26% Y/Y. But more importantly, the technical picture has an extremely powerful setup, and in light of the recent BE sympathy bidding behind FCEL lately, there is a legitimate angle here. It's also worth noting that while the market is currently pumping FCEL as the BE sympathy, BLDP & FCEL have basically the same EV/sales multiple while BLDP is currently reporting a POSITIVE consolidated gross margin (9%), while FCEL is reporting a NEGATIVE consolidated gross margin (-16%).

**TECHNICAL PICTURE**

On the daily, $BLDP is flagging retesting the breakout from a 9-month base. On the weekly, the stock has aggressively broken thru the 200-week moving average for the first time since 2022 (when it was trading $12+). On the monthly, the stock is pushing into the flat 200-month moving average overhead with the 9&21-month EMAs curling up below price. This is a drop-dead gorgeous chart and I think one of the nicest SMID cap charts in the entire market.

**TECHNOLOGY VALIDATION**

Ballard and Vertiv $VRT one of the nation's biggest power & cooling infrastructure players in the datacenter theme (a $144 billion market cap) announced a strategic technology partnership in June 2024 focused on backup power for data centers and critical infrastructure. The initial solution integrated Ballard fuel-cell power modules with Vertiv’s Liebert EXL S1 UPS platform at Vertiv’s Ohio facility. The system was designed to scale from 200 kW to multiple megawatts.

In the North American market as a validation of their fuel cell engines, Ballard announced a commercial agreement with New Flyer for 500 FCmove-HD+ fuel cell engines, totaling 50 MW. Deliveries are expected to begin in 2026, and the engines will power New Flyer’s Xcelsior CHARGE FC hydrogen fuel cell buses across North America. Ballard said this is New Flyer’s largest single commitment since the partnership began, and the relationship spans more than a decade.

In January of this year, they announced perhaps their biggest validation ever: Caterpillar, in collaboration with Microsoft and Ballard Power Systems, was recognized for its work in datacenter hydrogen fuel cell technology, winning the ‘Systems Development and Integration’ award at the U.S. DOE's Hydrogen Program Merit Review Awards.?The Ballard Power Systems-supported project successfully demonstrated its megawatt-scale fuel cell platform at Microsoft’s Cheyenne, Wyoming, data center. The 1.5MW fuel cell and battery microgrid solution showed increased resiliency and lower carbon intensity, providing applicability beyond standby, over a simulated 48-hour outage.

I've filled an equal position in both the $4C @$0.90 and $5C @$0.60 for August expiration with a 3% total weighting. <@&933985135391547462>

“AMERESCO $AMRC

Ameresco helps customers reduce energy costs, modernize energy infrastructure, and add distributed energy assets. It designs, engineers, builds & finances energy projects Its customers are heavily weighted toward governments, schools, utilities, hospitals, military facilities, municipalities, and increasingly - **datacenters**.

In plain English: Ameresco walks into an old, inefficient building, campus, landfill, utility site, military base, or industrial facility and says, “We can cut your energy bill, upgrade your equipment, build your energy infrastructure, and structure the project so savings or long-term offtake payments help pay for it.”

That can mean LED retrofits, HVAC upgrades, building controls, water conservation, solar, battery storage, microgrids, renewable natural gas, landfill gas, combined heat and power, EV charging, and long-term operations and maintenance.

The key nuance: Ameresco is not just a contractor. It is also an energy-asset owner/operator. It builds and owns distributed energy assets and sells electricity, heat, cooling, processed biogas, or RNG under contracts. As of year-end 2025, Ameresco said it owned and operated 227 energy plants totaling about 838 MWe, with another 853 MWe in development or construction.

Datacenters are struggling to bring power online quickly. Power infrastructure takes a long time to build. $AMRC has not ripped this year, unlike many other behind-the-meter power names, and the technical setup this morning pushing into the 200sma with the moving averages stacked closely together looked very promising to me.

Ameresco’s own data-center materials emphasize data-center power constraints, continuous power needs, interconnection queues, volatile power prices, and behind-the-meter energy solutions. The company says it has experience deploying more than 4 GW of resilient and renewable energy resources.

Ameresco is an explicit Bloom project partner. In 2024, Taylor Farms announced a microgrid project with Bloom, Ameresco, and Concept Clean Energy. The system combines 6 MW of Bloom fuel cells, 2 MW of solar, and a 2 MW / 4 MWh battery to power a 450,000-square-foot Taylor Farms facility.

Ameresco announced a collaboration with the U.S. Navy and CyrusOne to develop a 100 MW AI-ready data center and on-site energy infrastructure at NAS Lemoore. The project is expected to include dedicated on-site generation, a microgrid, engine generators, and control systems. The first portion is expected online in 2027.

CyrusOne is a serious partner, operating more than 55 data centers across the U.S., Europe, and Japan. Ameresco’s release also cautioned that the project was not necessarily indicative of revenue timing and was not included in assets in development as of June 30, 2025.

Ameresco also announced a major behind-the-meter battery storage project at Nucor Kingman in Arizona using Tesla Megapack systems. The company described battery storage demand as being fueled partly by data centers and manufacturers.

Their Neogenyx biofuels platform has also been validated as meaningfully valuable. The HASI transaction valued Neogenyx at a $1.8 billion post-money enterprise value and brought in $400 million of committed capital, including $100 million distributed to Ameresco at closing. This is one of the strongest green flags, because it provides third-party validation of part of the asset base.

The company's backlog is the highest quality business validation. The company disclosed that its sales cycle can run 18 to 42 months, awarded-to-signed conversion can take 12 to 42 months, and construction can take 12 to 36 months. It estimates that about **90%** of awarded projects convert to signed contracts.

At Q1 2026, total project backlog increased to $5.3 billion, and total revenue visibility was disclosed at $10.6 billion. The company currently trades at just 0.8x sales...

I've taken a 1.5% position in the October $35 calls @ $4.59 avg.”

^ this is the way. Looking for a spot to add big to my cameco position. Right around $100 is where I’d like to do it

Sold a 4/10 $75 put today. Will probably sell a few more if we continue to see weakness

Freakin Paul strikes again

This is getting crazy. SPUT is a beast right now and spot ask at $100. Bought a chunk of URNJ and urnm to flip at some point but not touching my longs yet. We’re going higher

Nicely done. I’ve sold a few hundred shares over the past couple of months but have 800 left at $5.72 average.

The uranium + rare earth combo makes it feel like a must have in the portfolio. Wishing I trimmed more when it rocketed and reloaded when it dropped but learned a couple lessons which has it’s own value I guess

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How is this for constructive info, mikey?

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Good actually. Nice to see something that’s actually worth looking at

This may be rose colored glasses thinking, but besides sentiment what has actually changed. Is the AI thesis dead? Did Arkady all of the sudden lose our trust in his ability to execute?

I got caught up in the fomo of the short term options chase and paid a modest price for that too and that’s the risk you run when playing those games.

I remember when this dropped into the low $20’s and kicked myself for not heavily positioning for the rally that followed. Scaling in on some more LEAPS. Still long