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re: March Job Numbers: "Stronger than expected"
Posted on 4/5/24 at 11:02 am to ks_nola
Posted on 4/5/24 at 11:02 am to ks_nola
quote:
Yes the government is bloated but making dumbass blanket statements that government workers are under qualified and can't get private job just makes you an asshat.
Nah. As someone who works in government contracting, i see it on all sides.
My business was basically a failure in the private sector but crushing in the public sector doing the same thing.
The people I report to would also never make it in the private sector world.
I would say on average, 20% of the government employees I deal with have average intelligence and gor their position on merit vs the color of their skin, pronouns, being a vet, etc.
This post was edited on 4/7/24 at 10:32 am
1
Posted on 4/5/24 at 11:13 am to I Love Bama
The obssesion over what SOFR rates might be in the future is the most hilarious thing I've ever seen 
Posted on 4/5/24 at 3:40 pm to Bard
I swear this is like pick your poison.
If the job report is positive so goes a good day in the market, but also not so good news for future rate cuts.
If the job report is negative then the market responds negatively, but we then look for the potential rate cut in the horizon.
Where is the sweet spot with all of this?
If the job report is positive so goes a good day in the market, but also not so good news for future rate cuts.
If the job report is negative then the market responds negatively, but we then look for the potential rate cut in the horizon.
Where is the sweet spot with all of this?
This post was edited on 4/6/24 at 7:39 am
Posted on 4/5/24 at 5:54 pm to Nu Iota Prophet
quote:
I swear this is like pick your poison.
If the job report is positive so goes a good day in the market, but also no so good news for future rate cuts.
If the job report is negative then the market responds negatively, but we then look for the potential rate cut in the horizon.
Where is the sweet spot with all of this?
There's not really a "sweet spot", it's more of a "turning point".
One issue is that the market sees what it wants to see. When JPow announced the possibility of three cuts this year, the market said "HOLY frick!! HE JUST SAID SIX CUTS THIS YEAR!!!111omgomgz"
Market players know what the Fed is looking for: shrinking job creation, rising unemployment, slowing manufacturing and inflation getting to 2% or below. Buuuuuuut... until then we have a growing economy.
So the market is a bit schizophrenic right now. It loves the economic growth but knows the environment causing that growth isn't good long-term. It wants rates cut so there can be MORE growth and a more stable future, but it also doesn't want the downturn necessary to facilitate that (you don't cut rates because the economy is growing, you cut rates to stimulate growth because the economy is stalling/falling).
I believe the turning point will be once inflation is tamed at/below 2% for a few months, that's when things will begin to stabilize. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening anytime soon.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 6:41 pm to Bard
quote:
I believe the turning point will be once inflation is tamed at/below 2% for a few months, that's when things will begin to stabilize. Unfortunately, I don't see it happening anytime soon.
Reign in government spending and watch inflation quickly dip under 2%.
It isn't rocket science.
Everyone knows what can be done.
But we lack the gonads to do the right thing.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:51 pm to Bard
quote:
tamed at/below 2% for a few months,
This will never happen
They are already at 2.8% when you exclude everything they exclude
Even Cohen said thats not possiblr
The only way rates get cut is unemployment. Thats their focus
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:09 pm to SDVTiger
quote:
This will never happen
It can happen, just not with the way Congress and this administration are creating debt, nor with the way the US consumer is doing so as well.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:30 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
No you don’t. Why did you lie about this?
Principals of the company don’t want lazy former government employees here. Sorry for your pain.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:39 pm to Bard
quote:
Stronger than expected"
Yet likely revised down about 5months later
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:29 pm to Bard
Still too much inflation. The fed is promoting coming cuts to keep the market from tanking.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:43 pm to baobabtiger
quote:
Still too much inflation. The fed is promoting coming cuts to keep the market from tanking.
Agreed. I think he's trying to balance the negative of holding rates (or increasing them) by tossing around the idea of cutting. I think all that does is drag things out longer.
Posted on 4/6/24 at 4:46 am to ronricks
quote:
Principals of the company don’t want lazy former government employees here. Sorry for your pain.
So your company discriminates against veterans? Awesome. Hope yall fold.
Posted on 4/6/24 at 7:12 am to Bard
quote:
It can happen, just not with the way Congress and this administration are creating debt, nor with the way the US consumer is doing so as well.
Yes like i said getting under 2% will never happen
Posted on 4/6/24 at 7:44 am to Bard
quote:
March Job Numbers:
Do you really believe any of this propaganda anymore ?
Remember when Kim Jong II shot 38 under on 18 holes ?
Same Stuff
Posted on 4/6/24 at 8:03 am to Bard
Quite literally nearly all part time jobs and illegals
The economy is a paper dragon.
Inside the Jobs Report
The economy is a paper dragon.
Inside the Jobs Report
Posted on 4/6/24 at 8:04 am to The Torch
I definitely think at minimum you have to use skepticism when reviewing reports from the government.
I follow what the large institutional investors are doing as I believe they see through the crap as they’re able to analyze independent metrics that I don't have time to digest.
I’m hoping that as long as real GDP is expanding we don’t do interest rate cuts.
I follow what the large institutional investors are doing as I believe they see through the crap as they’re able to analyze independent metrics that I don't have time to digest.
I’m hoping that as long as real GDP is expanding we don’t do interest rate cuts.
Posted on 4/6/24 at 11:36 pm to kaaj24
ADP, a private company providing payroll for thousands of companies nationwide, has the job growth metrics relatively close the government numbers.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 7:34 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
ADP, a private company providing payroll for thousands of companies nationwide, has the job growth metrics relatively close the government numbers.
If you consider 184k “relatively close” to 303k, then yeah, sure.
Posted on 4/7/24 at 8:14 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
ADP, a private company providing payroll for thousands of companies nationwide, has the job growth metrics relatively close the government numbers.
Oh wow lol
Posted on 4/7/24 at 1:04 pm to Bard
quote:
Government
Like this is good, fricking clown world
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