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Message
March Job Numbers: "Stronger than expected"
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:02 am
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:02 am
Expectation was 200k jobs for March, the initial release is coming in at 303k with Unemployment dropping from 3.9% to 3.8%. LINK
Healthcare, Government and Leisure/Hospitality led the pack once again by beating the snot out of their 12 month averages.
Healthcare 12 month average: 72,000
Healthcare March 2024: 60,000
Government 12 month average: 71,000
Government March 2024: 54,000
Leisure/Hospitality 12 month average: 49,000
Leisure/Hospitality March 2024: 37,000
Wage growth was .3%, which will likely be either matched or beaten by MoM CPI growth.
January numbers were revised up from 229k to 256k while February was revised down from 275k to 270k.
We're getting into the time of year when consumers are out and about more (and thus spending more). We've already seen oil and gasoline rising in price, refineries don't usually start producing summer blends (which are more expensive) until April, so we have even higher pump prices to look forward to.
Translation: Unless something unforeseen happens, there will be no rate cuts this summer. At this rate, IF we get a cut this year, the earliest likely opportunity would be September.
Healthcare, Government and Leisure/Hospitality led the pack once again by beating the snot out of their 12 month averages.
Healthcare 12 month average: 72,000
Healthcare March 2024: 60,000
Government 12 month average: 71,000
Government March 2024: 54,000
Leisure/Hospitality 12 month average: 49,000
Leisure/Hospitality March 2024: 37,000
Wage growth was .3%, which will likely be either matched or beaten by MoM CPI growth.
January numbers were revised up from 229k to 256k while February was revised down from 275k to 270k.
We're getting into the time of year when consumers are out and about more (and thus spending more). We've already seen oil and gasoline rising in price, refineries don't usually start producing summer blends (which are more expensive) until April, so we have even higher pump prices to look forward to.
Translation: Unless something unforeseen happens, there will be no rate cuts this summer. At this rate, IF we get a cut this year, the earliest likely opportunity would be September.
11
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:09 am to Bard
Govy jobs leading the way again 
We have lost 1.8mill full time jobs the last 3mnths
Gained 900k pt jobs to offset that
Traders see through this thankfully and the bond market didnt explode like last time
We will see what the Fed says after seeing this
We have lost 1.8mill full time jobs the last 3mnths
Gained 900k pt jobs to offset that
Traders see through this thankfully and the bond market didnt explode like last time
We will see what the Fed says after seeing this
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:16 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Govy jobs leading the way again
Especially if you start looking at the growth of healthcare jobs through the lens of Medicare spending growth. Personal current transfer receipts: Government social benefits to persons: Medicare
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:17 am to SDVTiger
quote:
We have lost 1.8mill full time jobs the last 3mnths
Gained 900k pt jobs to offset that
Yeah, again full time jobs declined. 600k+ increase in part time jobs. Woof. What a debacle.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:18 am to SDVTiger
quote:
Govy jobs
The one group of jobs that keeps growing the most is the one that needs to be cut the most. Just what we need more gov jobs
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:28 am to FLObserver
quote:
The one group of jobs that keeps growing the most is the one that needs to be cut the most. Just what we need more gov jobs
We could eliminate 33% of govt jobs and not miss a beat. Its a bloated mess and is essentially a jobs program for people who are unable/unqualified to work in private sector.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:29 am to FLObserver
got a govt employed loser downvoting you
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:35 am to FLObserver
quote:quote:
Govy jobs
The one group of jobs that keeps growing the most is the one that needs to be cut the most. Just what we need more gov jobs
Yeah, because private industry is going to pave roads, pay retirement benefits, teach children, defend the country.
The only reason government jobs are increasing is because private industry is going through their latest rounds of layoffs. This happens every 5-10 years. Rapid expansion and hiring, followed by streamlining and layoffs. That’s when workers go to government jobs until the next round of expansion.
Don’t hate Joe the Plumber or Suzy the Accountant because they work for the government and not Amazon.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:37 am to ronricks
quote:
We could eliminate 33% of govt jobs and not miss a beat. Its a bloated mess and is essentially a jobs program for people who are unable/unqualified to work in private sector.
33% being eliminated is being kind. The assistant to the assistant got it's start with government jobs.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 8:48 am to FLObserver
quote:
33% being eliminated is being kind. The assistant to the assistant got it's start with government jobs.
Its ridiculous and embarrassing. Any resume we get that has government employment history on it gets tossed.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:08 am to Suntiger
quote:
Yeah, because private industry is going to pave roads, pay retirement benefits, teach children, defend the country.
Pave roads - Apparently you have no idea how that is actually done
. pay retirement benefits - Are you referring to SS, because there are way more people not part of government pension, than with.
teach children - ISDs are far different than government jobs.
defend the country - The only one you are close to right.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:26 am to Bard
i have a feeling the job numbers will be stronger than expected every month until the november election
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:35 am to Jerrysworld
That may be true, but if the gov was going to fudge the numbers, why wouldn't they report them to be lower? That way they could get going with the rate cuts that Biden and them want so badly.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:48 am to Bard
Yay government
Posted on 4/5/24 at 9:57 am to notiger1997
You expect rate cuts regardless of the current inflation in place?
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:03 am to meansonny
No I don’t expect rate cuts and don’t agree with the fed saying they planned to cut rates three times this year.
I was making note that if the government was wanting to manipulate numbers, they would report lower job growth and higher unemployment as this would give them latitude to cut rates easier
I was making note that if the government was wanting to manipulate numbers, they would report lower job growth and higher unemployment as this would give them latitude to cut rates easier
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:10 am to DawgCountry
quote:
got a govt employed loser downvoting you
We're nearing the end of the debt cycle. This is the blow off top of the parasitical class.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:14 am to notiger1997
quote:
manipulate numbers, they would report lower job growth and higher unemployment as this would give them latitude to cut rates easier
.... to do something that they wouldn't do because inflation is a stronger pressure/mandate on the FED than employment/unemployment.
I'm answering your question with the purpose of the FED.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 10:48 am to ronricks
Yes the government is bloated but making dumbass blanket statements that government workers are under qualified and can't get private job just makes you an asshat.
I'm a professional engineer with an MBA and I currently choose to work for the federal government. Spent 10yrs as private consultant.
I'm a professional engineer with an MBA and I currently choose to work for the federal government. Spent 10yrs as private consultant.
Posted on 4/5/24 at 11:01 am to ronricks
quote:
Any resume we get that has government employment history on it gets tossed.
No you don’t. Why did you lie about this?
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