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hikingfan
USA Fan
Member since Jun 2013
1006 posts

Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
Is this actually the start of a V shape 'rocket ship' recovery that President Trump alluded to a few days ago?
This post was edited on 3/26 at 6:30 pm


Thecoz
Member since Dec 2018
475 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
i would have bet on a bounce....
but the speed and amount of stuff in the emergency package is a white swan that causes me to go ...idk....
stay nimble....stay ready....dca


Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2965 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
And that the market has now realized this was a bs over reaction. I don’t think we shoot back to the moon but we definitely make up some ground here.


rintintin
New Orleans Saints Fan
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
14814 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
quote:

And that the market has now realized this was a bs over reaction. 


IMO, if anything it's not this. It's the opposite, the overreaction was from the outside not the market. The market just reacted to the overreaction of the world, and IMO was a little late to react hence the freefall.

The economic impact is real and has barely been realized. Businesses are still closed, people are still out of work, and the gov't is still about to give away trillions of dollars. You can't dial that back at this point.


go ta hell ole miss
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Jan 2007
7959 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
quote:

Is this actually the start of a V shape 'rocket ship' recovery that President Trump alluded to a few days ago?


A lot of today was machine driven, just like the downturns last week. Algos are in control, we are all just holding on to the tail right now. Won’t surprise me to see it go back down in the next 10 days. People that have been bragging about gains might be wishing they had sold. Then again, those still holding out for a retest of the bottom may be regretting that they are not getting in here.


Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2965 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
And the market priced in a 20% reduction in revenue for the S&P 500. Way over done. We need to open up America yesterday and get back to work.


Dr Rosenrosen
Tulane Fan
Member since May 2006
2327 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
Too good to be true IMO.

It's been a hell of a rally, but I believe it is due to massive short covering.


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Huge Richard
Georgia Fan
Member since Dec 2018
2638 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
People are really starting to get pissed they didn’t buy the bottom lol


cgrand
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
HAMMOND
Member since Oct 2009
20713 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
I’m not holding any individual stocks more than a couple of days. When/if they jump I’m selling.

my real money is in funds and not much I can do about them right now but hope. I’m trying to make up as much ground as I can doing daily trades, so far I’m up about 10K since Monday on those. Don’t even want to know what my vanguard stuff is doing

yesterday I hit nicely on SHOP and today was CGC and PINS


SloaneRanger
LSU Fan
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
1103 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
We'll probably still have some rough sessions ahead. But gains of the magnitude we have seen this week can't be called a dead cat bounce.


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rintintin
New Orleans Saints Fan
Life is Life
Member since Nov 2008
14814 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
quote:

And the market priced in a 20% reduction in revenue for the S&P 500.


Eh, not really if you look at the valuation of the market pre-crash. When the market is over-priced, it doesn't take much to send it spiraling. This just happened to be a global economic shutdown, which is kind of a big deal.

The S&P 500 is still trading at about a 20 P/E ratio, which is far above it's historical average, and there are still big companies trading at high valuations. I'm not saying it's a definite that we drop more, but anyone who thinks we've hit some crazy cheap prices and it's not feasible to drop more aren't looking at the big picture.

quote:

We need to open up America yesterday and get back to work.


And I don't necessarily disagree with this. If this happens then we'll see a rally sooner than later. I just don't think it's coming as soon as some think.
This post was edited on 3/26 at 7:44 pm


go ta hell ole miss
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Jan 2007
7959 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
quote:

People are really starting to get pissed they didn’t buy the bottom lol


I am not. You may have missed the last line. I could not care less if the bottom has come and gone, as long as there is movement right now.


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WM88
LSU Fan
West Monroe
Member since Aug 2004
1237 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
quote:

I’m not holding any individual stocks more than a couple of days. When/if they jump I’m selling.


My strategy as well. Also 90% is in managed funds so I can't screw up too bad if I'm wrong.


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632627
Southern Cal Fan
LA
Member since Dec 2011
9659 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
quote:

We'll probably still have some rough sessions ahead. But gains of the magnitude we have seen this week can't be called a dead cat bounce.


i think some of the sectors that were completely beat down in fear of bankruptcies, eg. airlines and other travel related stocks, have recovered due to the stimulus package, and their bottom is in the rear view.




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41
Junky
Louisiana Tech Fan
Louisiana
Member since Oct 2005
5707 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
I don’t care if it’s the bottom, a bounce, or a recovery. Dividends will post next week and my monthly contribution will go through, increasing my total shares...and the steady march toward retirement continues.







We really need to send people back to work though.


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101
Shepherd88
Member since Dec 2013
2965 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
When you take into account a risk free rate of 0.8% on the 10yr treasury as well as the improved corporate tax cuts then the historical P/E doesn’t mean much of anything compared to today.


Joshjrn
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2008
14919 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
Would be a hell of a bouncy cat. Bitch is made of rubber.


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rotrain
LSU Fan
Member since Feb 2013
158 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
Agreed and poignant. Now lets take that a bit further. Where do Future PEs go when taxes have to go up to pay for the $4 trillion the government will dump onto businesses and people to pay for everyone sitting idol the next few months? Imo, Low taxes are now the expectation, so no more juice to squeeze out of that. Earnings were plateaued prior to covid. Long term what is the catalyst for growth, efficiency improvements, or lower taxes that will move stocks higher?


Athletix
Houston Astros Fan
:pels:
Member since Dec 2012
4868 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
quote:

And that the market has now realized this was a bs over reaction.


Next level ignorance.

I believe most people downplay the virus because it hasn’t effected them yet. Most of us aren’t sick nor do we probably know many people who are sick. So, therefore this is all just a big overreaction.

Here’s my chicken little outlook. Barring a successful therapeutic, I think shite will get much worse. Enough people get the virus and are perfectly fine to function in society. This is a problem. It allows for the virus to be uncontainable. No matter what we do, we won’t stop the spread. It won’t happen, not now. So, the country is in a lose lose situation. Either keep people on lockdown, so that the hospitals don’t get over run. Or, send people back to work, because the economic impact will be too great. It’s somewhere in the middle most likely. Problem is, once we loosen restrictions up, we will get an increase in cases. So, how will the public handle a lot of people dying? When the reports come out that hospitals all over the country are maxed out, you think the market is just gonna keep on chugging? Nah. I don’t think so. I’ve got a grim outlook, but that’s what I’m getting from the data. Find me something that will prevent what I laid out.

Hoping big time for proven therapeutics. Would be a game changer. Blood plasma treatment is hit or miss, but more research and testing may yield some better targeted results (promising). Other drugs are having mixed results, nothing atm looks like the answer.


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1012
Lgrnwd
Member since Jan 2018
1538 posts

re: Is there any reason to believe the last 3 days isn't just a dead cat bounce?
Rally may still have some legs. But it’s hard to believe the final bottom is in.

I have been hearing a lot of people who aren’t hardcore investors or traders talking about opening trading accounts to capitalize on this “money making opportunity”.

I even heard more than one person say they were thinking of taking a HELOC to dump it all in the market right now. Because they know they can at least triple their money buying stocks at their current levels.

That leads me to believe this “event” is not over.



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