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How many times will folks on this board get burned by XOM?

Posted on 10/28/20 at 1:04 am
Posted by rickgrimes
Member since Jan 2011
4260 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 1:04 am
The allure towards O&G stocks on this board is baffling to say the least when those stocks and the energy sector in general is amongst the worst performing sectors in the stock market since 2015. You would think that when a particular stock or sector is performing worse than the entire stock market over such a long period, people would pause and take notice?

Let's take a look at some examples:

My XOM Target - XOM when the thread was posted (3/12/20): $37.18, XOM today (10/27/20): $32.82

XOM dividend almost 10% now - XOM when the thread was posted (3/13/20): $38.12, XOM today (10/27/20): $32.82

Just bought more XOM ca $34.... - XOM when the thread was posted (3/16/20): $34.49, XOM today (10/27/20): $32.82

XOM Q2 Dividend - XOM when the thread was posted (4/21/20): $40.96, XOM today (10/27/20): $32.82

XOM, still a buy? - XOM when the thread was posted (5/22/20): $44.60, XOM today (10/27/20): $32.82

XOM at Four Month Low - - XOM when the thread was posted (8/25/20): $40.88, XOM today (10/27/20): $32.82

Everyone of these posters lost money if they invested at those prices while at the same time the broader market has been on a historic bull run. Think about how much they potentially lost over 10-20 years on a compounded basis, while investing with their blinders on.

Let's look at this thread - Are O&G stocks about to rise significantly? - If this guy had actually bought XOM on that day when I offered to buy an equivalent amount of VGT and we compared our returns today, his investment would have returned -24% [ XOM price: $43 (5/1) vs $33 (10/27) ] and I would have be up +33% on my investment in VGT [ VGT price: $235 (5/1) vs $313 (10/27) ].

XOM is a shite stock and no amount of dividend will make up for its underperformance compared to the broader stock market. Stop buying XOM! /rant
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 1:06 am
Posted by TDFreak
Coast to Coast - L.A. to Chicago
Member since Dec 2009
8227 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:06 am to
The night is always darkest just before dawn.
Posted by KillTheGophers
Member since Jan 2016
6593 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 6:31 am to
This to shall pass.
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
31834 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 7:53 am to
This board doesn’t understand that XOM is no longer a well oiled machine, and oil is in a clear downtrend

Definitely will see more “buy the dip” type threads for XOM today though
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 7:58 am
Posted by CenlaLowell
Alexandria, la
Member since Apr 2016
1112 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 8:47 am to
I just brought more, lol. Long term play
Posted by Nguyener
Kame House
Member since Mar 2013
21057 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 8:48 am to
Biden said he’s killing the O&G industry so let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
Posted by Fat Bastard
2024 NFL pick'em champion
Member since Mar 2009
82269 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 9:09 am to
quote:

Biden said he’s killing the O&G industry


but muh people here said nothing will happen to their money with beijing dipshit in charge!
Posted by barry
Location, Location, Location
Member since Aug 2006
50909 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 9:46 am to
Why don't you ask the ET people about good dividend on shitty stocks
Posted by whitefoot
Franklin, TN
Member since Aug 2006
11184 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 10:15 am to
But plastics!
Posted by LSUtoOmaha
Nashville
Member since Apr 2004
26654 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 11:25 am to
People do not like to admit they are wrong. And when they are wrong, they shift to "well, it's for the long term" mindset.
Posted by tigers1956
baton rouge
Member since Oct 2008
5170 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 1:38 pm to
None of the oil and gas companies are going anywhere anytime soon...Biden is all talk and whatever is trendy he is saying just to get elected....he is nothing but a senile liberal hippie Democrat and people are stupid to vote for him
Posted by Upperdecker
St. George, LA
Member since Nov 2014
31834 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:22 pm to
Just bc O&G “aren’t going anywhere” doesn’t mean they won’t trend down long term
Posted by rickgrimes
Member since Jan 2011
4260 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:36 pm to
quote:

People do not like to admit they are wrong. And when they are wrong, they shift to "well, it's for the long term" mindset.

I think you are 100% right here. It is the classic sunk cost fallacy.
Posted by rickgrimes
Member since Jan 2011
4260 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:40 pm to
quote:

None of the oil and gas companies are going anywhere anytime soon...Biden is all talk and whatever is trendy he is saying just to get elected....he is nothing but a senile liberal hippie Democrat and people are stupid to vote for him

Ignoring your moronic political diatribe for a second, note that this dicussion is about O&G company 'stocks' as investments, not the viability or long term survivability of these companies. Heck, GE has been around for 100+ years, but not too many people at this time are lining up to load up on GE stocks expecting it to shoot up.
This post was edited on 10/28/20 at 6:23 pm
Posted by castorinho
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
84590 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 2:55 pm to
quote:

None of the oil and gas companies are going anywhere anytime soon.
This here is the biggest mistake people make with oil and gas. Yeah oil and gas isn't going anywhere anytime soon. That doesn't mean an investment in oil and gas companies will return positive returns in the long run.
Posted by 8thyearsenior
Centennial, CO
Member since Mar 2006
4280 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 3:00 pm to
quote:

None of the oil and gas companies are going anywhere anytime soon..


The majors aren’t but have you looked at the balance sheet of most US Shale operators? A lot are going to bankruptcy court real soon.
Posted by Thecoz
Member since Dec 2018
3404 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 3:10 pm to
not buying it as a growth... have other investments for that.

picking it as a dca for a dividend greater than 4.5 and it acts like a bond. oils have been beaten down so look at it for fixed income bucket..

if it goes down a little dividend goes up ..goes up...divy down...if they cut still will compete with bonds..especially now...

very very big oils have commented about morphing and focus as energy companies...
international guys understand alt energy due to european activity...i hope they are looking at oil and energy such as wind and solar... europe is way way ahead of US on wind so want companies seeing that...

Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6636 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 3:30 pm to
Bankrupticies are necessary to balance the supply demand curves. Then it will pop again. And inevitably go down again.

There is money to be made in the long. Maybe not as much as in short with other plays though

I'd buy apple today if I had freed up funds
Posted by StreamsOfWhiskey
The Woodlands, TX
Member since Jun 2013
735 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 9:38 pm to
XOM is going to have to cut their dividend. Not only is it a crappy investment, the only reason for which to buy it will have to be cut before long.
Posted by jimjackandjose
Member since Jun 2011
6636 posts
Posted on 10/28/20 at 10:50 pm to
They just came out and started dividend is flat.

New with earnings of potential layoffs and balancing the books could get then through 21 cash positive into market upswing in 2022
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