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tduecen
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Nov 2006
150863 posts
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XOM, still a buy?
I bought some on the dip (32.71) and was thinking of buying some more while it is currently 44.60. Is it a good bet to continue to climb back towards all time highs in the 70's?


castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
67836 posts
 Online 

re: XOM, still a buy?
I studied it long and hard and really wanted to take a large position in my 401k when it was in the thirties.

In the end I decided against. Sentiment towards oil and gas is just awful and it'll only get worse from here.
And I'm in the industry...

Eta: I'm assuming you mean long term. If we're talking strictly rebound, then yeah that wouldn't be a bad call
This post was edited on 5/22 at 5:53 pm


tduecen
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Nov 2006
150863 posts
 Online 

re: XOM, still a buy?
Yeah, I mean I caught it in the 30's obviously and bought many shares and it has been a nice own so far. I know Exxon is the leader in the oil industry and was curious if people thought they would continue to grow and the stock would continue to improve. I've been debating buying more here lately.


LSUAlum2001
LSU Fan
Stavro Mueller Beta
Member since Aug 2003
41539 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

was curious if people thought they would continue to grow and the stock would continue to improve.


Yes on both accounts.


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skewbs
Michigan State Fan
Houston
Member since Apr 2008
660 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

all time highs in the 70's


You may want to relook at a chart that goes back further than one year...


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170
lostinbr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
2318 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

I know Exxon is the leader in the oil industry and was curious if people thought they would continue to grow and the stock would continue to improve.

Exxon took a pretty big risk by not cutting their dividend in Q1. They are paying the dividend on borrowed money, and now if they do have to cut the dividend their stock could tank while others are on the rise.

Further, while you would think XOM’s huge downstream presence would provide some stability, their downstream margins were slipping long before COVID.

If you’re looking to buy an integrated oil company for the long term, I would personally look at RDS before XOM. RDS already cut their dividend, so it’s highly unlikely that they would need to cut it again AND they have the long term benefit of not borrowing money to pay shareholders in Q1.

If XOM doesn’t cut their dividend, they will still have to deal with the debt which will impact long term growth. If they do cut it, that 7% yield you see now goes up in smoke and the stock price tanks.

ETA: Personally, I don’t know if the statement “Exxon is the leader in the oil industry” is true anymore.
This post was edited on 5/22 at 5:21 pm


Auburn1968
Auburn Fan
NYC
Member since Mar 2019
758 posts
 Online 

re: XOM, still a buy?
Gasoline is not going away any time soon, and gas and liquid fuel is only part of a barrel of oil. Lots of plastics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and such in the rest of a barrel of oil.

Oil is going to come back in due time.

BTW, NYC traffic has increased quite a lot of late. Things are getting back to normal even in this People's Republic.


TJG210
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Aug 2006
26464 posts
 Online 

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

Exxon is the leader in the oil industry


I don’t think that at all. They have been slipping big time the last several years.


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51
lostinbr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
2318 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

Gasoline is not going away any time soon, and gas and liquid fuel is only part of a barrel of oil. Lots of plastics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals and such in the rest of a barrel of oil.

Oil is going to come back in due time.

All of this is true, but you have to wonder - given the high gasoline demand and low crude prices over the past few years, why was Exxon’s downstream margin slipping?

The question isn’t whether oil will come back. It’s whether XOM is the horse you want to pick.


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40
DiamondDog
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2019
1433 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
I cut out at $44 and took the profits. You’re looking at yo-yo effect next 12-18 months Just to see $60. That’s longer than I want to keep a large portion of my portfolio locked in on O/G at the moment.


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USA
Member since 2001
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LSUTOM07
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2011
745 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

gas and liquid fuel is only part of a barrel of oil


A major part. Gas and fuel represent around 75% of a barrel of oil.


MandevilleLSUTiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
6832 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

In the end I decided against. Sentiment towards oil and gas is just awful and it'll only get worse from here.
And I'm in the industry...


Don't disagree, but sentiment doesn't control actual demand. And there will continue to be demand for decades.


JayDeerTay84
LSU Fan
Texas
Member since May 2013
7351 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

A major part. Gas and fuel represent around 75% of a barrel of oil.


Which is why then they are refining Oil for their plastic electric cars it just makes sense to keep using gas and diesel.

IEA predicts a demand peak in 2030. Who knows if this is true or not. Hard to say, but even if it peaked, the question to ask is how are reserves looking at that time.

Lots of things to consider on the consumption side of things. I cant see China, India, Africa, etc going electric and using "less" Fuel, but I can see the US and Europe doing so.


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castorinho
Oklahoma Fan
13623 posts
Member since Nov 2010
67836 posts
 Online 

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

Don't disagree, but sentiment doesn't control actual demand. And there will continue to be demand for decades.
we're talkinh about investment here. Just because there'll be demand does not mean it'll be a great investment.
Look at XOM's returns, including dividends, for the past ten years. It's pretty bad comparatively.


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10
FLObserver
LSU Fan
Jacksonville
Member since Nov 2005
7811 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
bought at 45 like 2 months ago and feels like been stuck in 40's for a while now. will continue to hold .


tduecen
New York Yankees Fan
Member since Nov 2006
150863 posts
 Online 

re: XOM, still a buy?
See I bought on the dip so my average buy is 32 so I'm up with how many shares I have. Hell they are holding me afloat because CIM is well below what I bought at



saderade
New Orleans Saints Fan
America's City
Member since Jul 2005
23940 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
I’m in at $90/share. At this point I’ll keep it to see if/when it has a rebound before selling it off.


tirebiter
LSU Fan
Member since Oct 2006
6693 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

I’m in at $90/share. At this point I’ll keep it to see if/when it has a rebound before selling it off.


Do you hold this in a taxable or retirement account? People grossly underestimate the value of loss carry forwards in a current year and over future periods in taxable accounts. What is lost in this thread is XOM relied on asset sales for dividend payments in 2019, this is not just a 2020 challenge. RDS said they would not cut until they cut.


DiamondDog
LSU Fan
Member since Nov 2019
1433 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
quote:

I’m in at $90/share. At this point I’ll keep it to see if/when it has a rebound before selling it off.



Tell me you have like 25 shares and not 3500. That’s just awful if so.


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redfieldk717
LSU Fan
Alec Box
Member since Oct 2011
27578 posts

re: XOM, still a buy?
If you want something long term, buy chevron or rds but both probably aren’t at great prices right now unless you want to hold for a while

I’m also a big fan of noble energy (nbl)


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