My XOM Target

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expecting it to fall further.

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Yeah that's why I'm waiting...

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low demand that will linger for months

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That's going to change once this viral scare wears off (which I think will start happening once we see confirmed cases plateau which should be in a couple of weeks now that we are starting to do lots of testing). With such a large supply and so many great travel deals to be had with all the airlines, cruiselines, tour groups, hotels, etc. I can easily see demand ramp up with the quickness by July.

Why is this board obsessed with energy stocks?

Louisiana is an energy state.

Tigerdog, I appreciate your input. With these fundamental issues, What was driving the high stock price prior to recent events?

I also have to keep in mind that times like these are when lots of merger and acquisition activity takes place, and gets rubber stamped by regulators "for the good of the economy".

Is XOM in a good position to snap up smaller competitors for long term marketshare growth as well as energy diversification long term... sort of reposition for future energy demand but cheaply..?

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I would wait a while for some clarity on when this calms down and demand resumes and know that all these companies will be cutting the dividends at some point most likely.

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I am with you on this. Being cautious and that XOM funded the dividend from asset sales in 2019 I would be extremely surprised if the dividend is not cut. That is called being prudent with capital. Yeah, it's a dividend aristocrat yada-yada, but at the end of the day that is meaningless. To the poster asking about price changes, etc, XOM closed at $89 on 1-26-2018 and even through the shite storm of Dec 2018 it's low close was $64, it closed at $37.16 today. Is it currently a great price? Who knows? I'm not an XOM expert, yet recognize they have struggled to grow their reserves and their cost of production is much higher than the Saudis. This isn't your father's XOM, there are more external competitors outside of O&G, and the political climate is pretty challenging. If someone is using play money buying that's one thing, if someone is backing up the truck and establishing a 20% position in their portfolio I say good luck with that.

I thought I had a pretty decent cost basis in EPD in the $19's and have added lower priced units recently, but damn I hate oil related investments. It being a partnership brings along some potentially expensive tax challenges on sale whether you sell at a profit or loss per unit. Oil holdings are not long term buy and hold IMO.

I've had XOM since 2003 and dont feel like I've ever made much off of it, even when it was up to 90+.

I agree that oil is not going away any time soon. IMO we have a trifecta that is suppressing the prices of O&G stocks.

We have a government that has expanded drilling and turned up the production thus lowering prices. What if drilling is restricted in the future and a democrat controlled congress starts putting in regulation to lower production (i.e. environmental concerns) thus driving the price up. Typically O&G does better under a democratic president.

The overall market is crashing due to a pandemic. I can see 2 different paths after COVID-19 calms down. If the economics are still strong then I see a quick bounce back of the markets in total. If COVID-19 stays around much longer months and months then we probably stay in a longer down turn due to layoffs and the such due to longer depressed economy. If this is on the shorter end this could lead to a step change in all stocks.

The other factor is the Saudi and Russia oil price war. They are hurting each other as well as all of the oil majors. They won't keep this forever. When they do sign an agreement to regulate production this should lead to a step change upwards in O&G when it happens.

All 3 of these factors lead me to being relatively confident in the long term in the O&G majors. I doubt this is a short term trade but if you are willing to invest long term and receive some dividend (maybe a cut?) I think it works out.

This is just some of my thoughts and could be flawed. I am curious if anyone else has a similar thought process here. I personally prefer RDS over XOM. It will be curious to see if they need to cut dividends for the next round and if so how much.

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Why is this board obsessed with energy stocks

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I noticed that too when I first started posting here (I’m not from Louisiana and don’t work in O&G).

West coast boards are the same way, only they’re tech focused. Midwest boards seem to be more auto focused. I guess people go with what’s most familiar to them.