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Started By
Message
re: Anyone thinking of exiting the market for a few months?
Posted on 8/26/22 at 9:37 pm to LSUregit
Posted on 8/26/22 at 9:37 pm to LSUregit
quote:
If the Feds are really targeting 2% inflation, there's going to be a lot more pain to come.
That's their eventual goal, but they know it won't be overnight. What you should be looking at is how they plan to get there.
The Fed has stopped buying mortgage-backed securities as part of its tightening (which should pile onto the pressure for mortgages rates to increase) and has stated (repeatedly) that their goal for 2022 is to get the Fed Fund Rate to 3.4 by the end of the year. It's from 2.25-2.5 right now, meaning at least another full point worth of hikes by December.
For 2023 their goal is 3.8 which will mean pushing it up at least another .5 over the course of next year.
0
Posted on 8/27/22 at 2:17 am to Aubie Spr96
October is going to be brutal
Posted on 8/27/22 at 7:51 pm to MrLSU
Only if your crystal ball can accurately predict the downturn and the subsequent upturn.
I gave up trying to time the market a long time ago.
I gave up trying to time the market a long time ago.
Posted on 8/27/22 at 9:29 pm to RobbBobb
Don't fight the Fed. This market might be shite for another year or two. Not worried about it though.
This post was edited on 8/27/22 at 9:30 pm
Posted on 8/28/22 at 1:35 pm to buffbraz
quote:
Meet Bob, the world’s worst market timer……. LINK
Yes, sir. Different ones keep posting that. But (some) people have gotten it in their heads that this time will be different… so Bob’s experience doesn’t apply. I’m not going to mock them. But neither am I going to address their frightened questions. Best just to say good luck… God bless… see you down the road. 
Posted on 8/28/22 at 2:28 pm to MrLSU
I’m not selling any retirement account stocks but I am steadily selling stock in my play money account with limit sell orders set within 15% of their 52 week high. This account has about $114,000 now and I’ll probably go to cash on roughly half of it. I’ll definitely sell anything I’m down on at end of year to tax harvest. I don’t see a significant rally this year and think next year could be bad. I’m only staying in my oil stocks like XOM and ET and some mortgage REITs that I think could do well when they have to drop rates again next year.
Posted on 8/29/22 at 12:39 pm to Jag_Warrior
quote:
But (some) people have gotten it in their heads that this time will be different… so Bob’s experience doesn’t apply. I’m not going to mock them
I’m not mocking anyone, just giving some perspective with the “worst market timer ever” example. I’m curious though, in what capacity do people think the downturn will be different this time? As in the market will NEVER recover? That it will go to $0 or worse? I’m generally curious. I’m a DCA’er through and through. I’m not smart enough to time the market in any capacity.
Posted on 8/29/22 at 2:02 pm to buffbraz
Didn’t mean to suggest that you were mocking them either. The Bob example is a great one… a valuable teaching lesson for those who follow the typical human tendency to run scared.
I’m glad that you posted it.
I’m glad that you posted it.
This post was edited on 8/29/22 at 2:03 pm
Posted on 8/29/22 at 2:43 pm to MrLSU
The market is never gonna get better might as well just ride it down the toilet
Posted on 8/29/22 at 5:51 pm to MrLSU
I have a long horizon so mostly just buying, but took a little off the top last week and will put it back in if we test a bottom
Posted on 8/30/22 at 11:44 am to MrLSU
quote:
we are very likely to see to massive downturn in the market that rivals 2008
Why are the markets tanking over the last three sessions? It doesn't seem logical in light of recent legislation.
Posted on 8/30/22 at 11:49 am to tarzana
quote:
Why are the markets tanking over the last three sessions? It doesn't seem logical in light of recent legislation.
Really?
We came out of COVID with inflationary pressures. We have spent an additional 3.6 trillion in the last 18 months.
The SPR release is a gimmick that will work in the short term. Longer term oil/gas prices will rise.
Inflation is here to stay for a while.
Posted on 8/30/22 at 11:56 am to frogtown
quote:
Inflation is here to stay for a while
Muh...Inflation Reduction Act.
Posted on 8/30/22 at 11:56 am to MrLSU
quote:
thinking of exiting the market
quote:
very likely to see to massive downturn in the market
Sounds like a great time to buy more.
I want to buy low, sell high
Not sell high (as it is getting lower) and buy high (after it starts rising again)
Posted on 8/30/22 at 12:03 pm to tarzana
quote:
Why are the markets tanking over the last three sessions? It doesn't seem logical in light of recent legislation.
Because the markets are starting to finally get the hint that the Fed isn't going to change course this year and the Inflation Reduction Act is simply smoke-and-mirrors trash legislation which serves only to move the deck chairs around while the Titanic still sinks.
Posted on 8/30/22 at 12:25 pm to Bard
quote:
Because the markets are starting to finally get the hint that the Fed isn't going to change course this year
But the markets have this already priced in. Ok.
How many times have I heard that? This market is fueled by hope like our economy is fueled with debt. Funny money.
This post was edited on 8/30/22 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 8/30/22 at 12:43 pm to MrLSU
I sold what I had in an S&P tracker mutual fund in my Roth and some individual stocks but my 401K I don't touch. We may have hit the bottom already or it may be yet to come. Who knows. But I'm covered either way.
Posted on 8/30/22 at 12:48 pm to sawtooth
quote:
But the markets have this already priced in. Ok.
How many times have I heard that?
Yep. If the Fed's hikes were already priced in, we wouldn't have seen the market shitting the bed Friday after Powell basically reiterating the Fed wouldn't be pausing nor pivoting on the QT this year. It made me think a lot of folks were hoping (and possibly banking) on the Fed buckling in the face of any pressure from the market like they have over the last decade or so.
Posted on 8/30/22 at 12:48 pm to MrLSU
I did months ago. I’m sitting this out, too old to ride out the waves these days, and as long as the morons are in office that currently are it’s unlikely to improve.
Posted on 8/30/22 at 2:04 pm to llfshoals
I've been risk-averse for awhile now. Feds are still hawkish and will sacrifice unemployment to over 5%. Until signs of a real pivot, preserving capital is just as important as making it.
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