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Started By
Message
And I was wrong... FEDS raise the rates as expected.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:01 pm
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:01 pm
Now lets see where that leads us.
11
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:03 pm to Jjdoc
Recession.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:03 pm to Jjdoc
quote:
Now lets see where that leads us.
To another one in June
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:08 pm to Jjdoc
They’ll go until they break something at this point
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:11 pm to wutangfinancial
quote:
They’ll go until they break something at this point
the concern I have is the real GDP and the coming unemployment increases.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:14 pm to Jjdoc
Wrong about what?… what else were they gonna do with the worst inflation in 40 years?
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:23 pm to lowspark12
quote:
Wrong about what?…
I suggested that due to the negative real GDP announced that they would reduce the amout they would raise the rates by from .50 to .25. The raising of rates lowers the real GDP.
quote:
what else were they gonna do with the worst inflation in 40 years?
This was not and is not about not raising rates. It was about how much due to the -1.4% real GDP.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:43 pm to Jjdoc
odds of them not raising was very slim so i hope some of the decline already is baked in.
hope
hope
Posted on 5/4/22 at 1:50 pm to dsides
quote:
Priced in. Hello stagflation
We're pretty much already there. Negative GDP and high inflation. The incoming even-higher increases to food and fuel are going to drive Unemployment back up. Look for the shedding of jobs really start up around July-August as those price increases really start impacting the economy.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 2:09 pm to Jjdoc
The negative GDP number was NOT about demand. It was about supply and an incredibly strong dollar stemming from global concerns from Russia/Ukraine
Posted on 5/4/22 at 2:10 pm to Jjdoc
Market is up a bit, at least.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 2:30 pm to FieldEngineer
Market is definitely up pretty big
Posted on 5/4/22 at 2:31 pm to Jjdoc
There is no way we're not already in a technical recession. It's just a question of how deep it goes and how long it lasts. Will it just be q1 and a2 of this year? Will it extend to next year?
What is going to pull us out of it? I don't see anything good on the horizon
What is going to pull us out of it? I don't see anything good on the horizon
Posted on 5/4/22 at 2:45 pm to Shepherd88
quote:
The negative GDP number was NOT about demand. It was about supply and an incredibly strong dollar stemming from global concerns from Russia/Ukraine
Demand is also through the roof. It's a perfect storm for massive inflation.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 2:48 pm to Jjdoc
As I was saying…
quote:
They’ll raise .50 with near 100% certainty, and the market will probably go up on The idea the Fed is staying predictable - like it did after the March meeting. If they raise .75+ the market might swallow it too, but if they raise anything less than .50, tomorrow will be a relative blood bath IMO. Basically, I have the exact opposite opinions as you do.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 3:25 pm to Jjdoc
Any solution to this mess has to have higher interest rates.
It is going to be painful to fix this. Here comes the pain!
It is going to be painful to fix this. Here comes the pain!
Posted on 5/4/22 at 3:26 pm to Jjdoc
Market soaring today. I needed that little relief rally. I was getting nervous on Monday
Posted on 5/4/22 at 3:58 pm to Aubie Spr96
quote:
Recession.
I think we could technically see a recession if we go with a by-the-book definition, but at least for the vast majority of people and business, I don't believe it would be a deep recession. Supply and demand are still all out of whack. Until that imbalance shakes itself out, we really don't know. It's cliche to say, but we're in some uncharted water here. One would think demand would be grinding to a halt, but it's just kind of engaged a clutch and we're waiting to see if it will shift up or down. I don't know. The future is for sure uncertain, but I don't think it's for sure negative.
Posted on 5/4/22 at 7:16 pm to Jjdoc
How does this affect the 30 year fixed mortgage rate?
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