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Started By
Message
10 yr yield going to 5%
Posted on 9/21/23 at 4:48 am
Posted on 9/21/23 at 4:48 am
not seen since right before the GFC
looking like we're in the final stretch before something breaks
looking like we're in the final stretch before something breaks
5
Posted on 9/21/23 at 7:55 am to JimMorrison
A+++ gif usage 
Posted on 9/21/23 at 8:47 am to JimMorrison
About three or so weeks ago, when the 10-year was bobbling around 3.90-3.95, I swear that every talking-head economist on CNBC and FoxBusiness were saying the 10-year had peaked. They certainly didn't seem to think it would test the earlier highs around 4.15 or so.
This morning I saw it had gotten up to 4.48.
This morning I saw it had gotten up to 4.48.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 8:56 am to JimMorrison
Doom and gloom commentators all over CNBC this AM. They had the Duke professor on that created the inverted yield curve theory. He was not very complementary of the Fed. Thinks they are overshooting on the rates.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:25 am to JimMorrison
quote:It's at 4.46% this morning.
10 yr yield going to 5%
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:31 am to Aeolian Vocalion
quote:
About three or so weeks ago, when the 10-year was bobbling around 3.90-3.95, I swear that every talking-head economist on CNBC and FoxBusiness were saying the 10-year had peaked. They certainly didn't seem to think it would test the earlier highs around 4.15 or so.
This morning I saw it had gotten up to 4.48.
yeah, I bet the people who were predicting the peak were the same ones heavily bearish on stocks going into this year.
if the 10 yr does get to 5%, bonds are going to be extremely attractive. obviously I don't know where we will be from an economic data perspective, but at that point, I think market anxiety would be near highs and we'll see bonds begin a rally. will be interesting to watch.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:39 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
He was not very complementary of the Fed. Thinks they are overshooting on the rates.
they probably are, but they are in a tough situation. inflation risk is already coming into view again, but if they ease up now, another huge ramp of inflation would essentially be guaranteed given how the economy is humming along.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 9:39 am to LSURussian
I know. I am only speculating it's headed toward 5% in the coming months.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 10:43 am to JimMorrison
Fed should have gone to 10% rate immediately. Shocked the economy months ago. Would have been pain but we would be improving quicker
Posted on 9/21/23 at 10:47 am to Aubie Spr96
quote:
He was not very complementary of the Fed. Thinks they are overshooting on the rates.
The issue is that the Fed's contractionary monetary policy is being partially cancelled out by the Government's expansionary fiscal policy.
I'm not excusing anyone (the Fed should have been slowly raising rates since back in 2016-2017, BEFORE things got desperate), but the reality is they're going to have to do more than what most people think and it's because Monetary and Fiscal policy are pulling in opposite directions.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 10:47 am to HailToTheChiz
quote:
Fed should have gone to 10% rate immediately. Shocked the economy months ago. Would have been pain but we would be improving quicker
They should have started raising rates sooner but remember when inflation was "transitory".
Posted on 9/21/23 at 10:54 am to JimMorrison
Would you suggest a heavier bond component in a portfolio than typical for someone in their early 40s?
Posted on 9/21/23 at 11:05 am to Diseasefreeforall
true, the Fed kept the printer on far too long.
copper futures are about to crash and I take that as the market coming to terms with the slowing global economy and the Fed will be getting their engineered recession.
copper futures are about to crash and I take that as the market coming to terms with the slowing global economy and the Fed will be getting their engineered recession.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 11:13 am to Burt Orangello
This guy was saying that the inflation data they are using is bad. Specifically, the housing and rent portions.
Campbell Harvey Interview
Campbell Harvey Interview
Posted on 9/21/23 at 12:07 pm to Aubie Spr96
It's hard to ignore a man with his history giving an interview with that level of passion. We'll find out Dec/Jan I guess!
Posted on 9/21/23 at 1:05 pm to HailToTheChiz
quote:
Fed should have gone to 10% rate immediately. Shocked the economy months ago. Would have been pain but we would be improving quicker
Overnight rate increase to 10%. Genius plan. How does that take have upvotes
Posted on 9/21/23 at 3:07 pm to Sir Saint
quote:
Overnight rate increase to 10%. Genius plan. How does that take have upvotes
Hey it would get the job done
Posted on 9/21/23 at 4:32 pm to HailToTheChiz
That which must eventually be done, is best done immediately.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 5:07 pm to SloaneRanger
Game out the govt’s net interest expense at 10%. Now they’re paying $2T this year, deficit blows out another trillion, and there’s another trillion being paid which is essentially stimulus for the rich. Equities probably collapse (who’s gambling on AI with risk free 10% available?).
They’re done. The 4 decade bond bull is over as is the era of low inflation most of us grew up with.
They’re done. The 4 decade bond bull is over as is the era of low inflation most of us grew up with.
Posted on 9/21/23 at 5:29 pm to AllDayEveryDay
His history and passion aside, he is dead fricking wrong in regards to inflation.
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