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re: What is Vegas seeing that the ranters aren't seeing?
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:05 am to geauxtigers33
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:05 am to geauxtigers33
Tennessee has the worse passing defense in the SEC. Vegas knows our receivers, with JD or Nuss, are gonna light them up this Saturday.
0
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:11 am to Slippy
On paper we match up well againt Tenn.
That's what they see.
That's what they see.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:13 am to Slippy
LSU has played 3 power conf. opponents thus far. Against all three LSU's offense has struggled mightily to get on track in the first half.
3 points vs. FSU
7 points vs. MSU (with a late 1st half drive accounting for those points)
7 points vs. Auburn (LSU's defense scored first and it was another last minute drive in the first half for LSU's offense to get on the board)
Tennessee has the top ranked offense in all of CFB. The though very well could be that on a neutral site that top offense would put enough space between them and LSU in the first half before LSU's offense could get going. Tiger Stadium gives LSU 3-4 points on the line.
I'm not saying Tennessee is going to win. I'm not saying this won't be the game LSU's offense finally starts to click. But the pattern of the games against P5 opponents have been pretty similar. LSU's offense and defense struggles early. The defense gives up some points, but eventually settles in to shut down the opponent the rest of the game. In doing so they keep the game just close enough to allow the offense to eventually get on track. It can be taxing to overcome slow starts game after game...particularly against an offense that has the ability to put up points in bunches.
3 points vs. FSU
7 points vs. MSU (with a late 1st half drive accounting for those points)
7 points vs. Auburn (LSU's defense scored first and it was another last minute drive in the first half for LSU's offense to get on the board)
Tennessee has the top ranked offense in all of CFB. The though very well could be that on a neutral site that top offense would put enough space between them and LSU in the first half before LSU's offense could get going. Tiger Stadium gives LSU 3-4 points on the line.
I'm not saying Tennessee is going to win. I'm not saying this won't be the game LSU's offense finally starts to click. But the pattern of the games against P5 opponents have been pretty similar. LSU's offense and defense struggles early. The defense gives up some points, but eventually settles in to shut down the opponent the rest of the game. In doing so they keep the game just close enough to allow the offense to eventually get on track. It can be taxing to overcome slow starts game after game...particularly against an offense that has the ability to put up points in bunches.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:15 am to Pauvetibete
quote:
Because while you want to blame JD, I think most colleges would be ecstatic with a QB that has a 68% completion 915 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs and a 141.7 QBR. We have the defense to win games, we just need to limit turnovers which is exactly what JD does.
Overall QBR: 20th
Passing: 65th
Running: 5th
He's a middle of the pack passer if you filter it to SEC QBs. 4th overall behind Young, Bennet, Hooker. 7th in passing alone, in between KJ Jefferson and Anthony Richardson.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:16 am to Slippy
quote:
What is Vegas seeing that the ranters aren't seeing?
Even money on both betting sides and making multi millions off the juice.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:23 am to GeauxGutsy
Early money is heavy on Tennessee.
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 11:27 am
Posted on 10/3/22 at 11:51 am to Slippy
Vegas sees a very good defense and physical running team that can make plays in crunch time.
Remember, tRant is the same group of tards that hate Les Miles, who coached the winningest decade in LSU football history.
Remember, tRant is the same group of tards that hate Les Miles, who coached the winningest decade in LSU football history.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:16 pm to Slippy
quote:
How can they possibly be only a 3.5 point favoite? Why can't they see how terrible JD is?
Playing on the road is tough... ask UGA
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:37 pm to kkv75
quote:
I thought it would be 7-8 point spread. Does Vegas know something?
Yeah, they know that Tennessee is just okay. They haven't beaten anybody yet. Florida and Pitt are about the same as Auburn and State.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:40 pm to LifeAquatic
quote:
I'm not a jayden daniels hater by any stretch--i think he's the clear choice given the limitations and inexperience of this OL, as his rushing ability gives our offense a much-needed floor-
I think so, too, but Daniels won't start all season if he can't get rid of the yips. Kelly will begin to lose his WRs if it stays like this. Eventually he'll have to go to Nuss and start slinging it downfield.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:41 pm to Slippy
They are playing at LSU. Which means they are closer to a 10 Pt favorite in Tenn.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:42 pm to Slippy
(no message)
This post was edited on 11/20/22 at 1:49 pm
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:53 pm to Pauvetibete
quote:
We have the defense to win games, we just need to limit turnovers which is exactly what JD does.
This is literally what got Les Miles fired. I am very pleased that we are 4-1 but we played about as poorly you could play. Passing for 5 yards in a second half should never be acceptable.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 12:54 pm to LifeAquatic
Apologizes. His QBR is 79.6, which is top 20 of all QBs.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:00 pm to Slippy
it still amazes me that people think they make the lines based on anything other than what will make half the people bet on one team and half the people bet on the other team.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:10 pm to KamaCausey_LSU
I saw early money was almost all Tenn but the line didn’t move yet. Seems Vega is sticking to their guns and how often are they wrong when doing so.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:13 pm to Jerrysworld
quote:
it still amazes me that people think they make the lines based on anything other than what will make half the people bet on one team and half the people bet on the other team.
Although very true but once the money hits so hard for one side as it has for Tenn Vegas normally adjusts. They haven’t as of now and that’s a telling sign more so than the spread. Vegas is confident it will be a close game. This has sucker bet tattooed in HUGE orange letters all over it. LSU shitty game and Tenn the media darling with a low spread with all the money falling right into the trap.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:36 pm to Jerrysworld
quote:
than what will make half the money bet on one team and half the money bet on the other team
FIFY
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:51 pm to Slippy
My guess is that they know that SEC will point shave it down to keep people watching the big games. I suspect now that LSU is out-manned, you'll see a much more favorably officiated game called than vs Auburn. I doubt, for instance, you'll see ejections on players actively being carted off the field on stretchers.
Posted on 10/3/22 at 1:54 pm to Slippy
Vegas doesn't judge individual games. They have a macro-level formula that generates lines.
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