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What is Vegas seeing that the ranters aren't seeing?

Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:43 am
Posted by Slippy
Across the rivah
Member since Aug 2005
6578 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:43 am
If this were an election, 3.5 would be within the margin of error.

Tennessee is being portrayed as this offensive juggernaut.
How can they possibly be only a 3.5 point favoite? Why can't they see how terrible JD is?
Posted by blowmeauburn
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2006
7885 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:44 am to
Our Defense is good and we can run the ball. So they think we can slow them down enough and keep it close.
Posted by bstew3006
318
Member since Dec 2007
12576 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:46 am to
quote:

Tennessee is being portrayed as this offensive juggernaut. How can they possibly be only a 3.5 point favoite? Why can't they see how terrible JD is?


They’re very good on offense…just like MSU…but LSU has a damn good D

LSU isn’t good on offense and Tenn is bad on D.

That’s what they see.
Posted by Damone
FoCo
Member since Aug 2016
32698 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:46 am to
LSU has an excellent turnover margin, is playing at home, and has developed a ball control offense. They are also a second half team who can close.
Posted by The Pirate King
Pangu
Member since May 2014
57676 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:47 am to
Our home field advantage is a pretty good neutralizer against teams that aren’t vastly better than us like Bama or UGA. We have similar or better athletes compared to Tenn.

This defense is hard to predict.
Posted by PenguinPubes
Frozen Tundra
Member since Jan 2018
10801 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:47 am to
Get online and put your life savings on it baw.. if you’re that flabbergasted on the line
Posted by Pauvetibete
Member since Apr 2022
510 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:47 am to
Because while you want to blame JD, I think most colleges would be ecstatic with a QB that has a 68% completion 915 yards, 9 TDs, 0 INTs and a 141.7 QBR. We have the defense to win games, we just need to limit turnovers which is exactly what JD does.
Posted by JodyPlauche
Baton Rouge
Member since Aug 2009
8774 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:48 am to
quote:

What is Vegas seeing that the ranters aren't seeing


The power of an 11am kickoff in Tiger Stadium!
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 9:50 am
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164112 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:49 am to
A highly ranked team being favored by only 3 on the road means the highly ranked 3 point favorite is going to lose. Tale as old as time.
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 9:59 am
Posted by Corporal Beavis
Member since Aug 2013
1206 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:51 am to
They take into account the whole body of work. Our offense was terrible against Auburn but it was just normal bad against Moo State and FSU.

Defense has shown to be pretty damn incredible. Auburn didn't do much outside of busted coverages.

UT still has a lot to prove. We're probably the best team they've come up against this year and it's on the road. The way their fans talk about their offense you'd think Joe Burrow is out there slinging it to Chase and Jefferson.
Posted by LSUguy2023
St. George
Member since Oct 2021
2088 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:54 am to


Very similar schedules. I know the Purdue game is last season.
Posted by J2thaROC
Member since May 2018
13020 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:55 am to
The strongest defense in the SEC and the ability to just outlast opponents in the trenches.
Posted by kkv75
Member since Sep 2017
4890 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 9:58 am to
Surprised also. I thought it would be 7-8 point spread. Does Vegas know something?
Posted by Daemon Targaryen
Member since Aug 2022
238 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:06 am to
I’m seeing -3 some places
Posted by Box Geauxrilla
Member since Jun 2013
19118 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:08 am to
quote:

A highly ranked team being favored by only 3 on the road means the highly ranked 3 point favorite is going to lose. Tale as old as time.

Yep, it has trap written all over it. Everyone will see the -3.5 and jump all over Tenn.
Posted by LSUguy2023
St. George
Member since Oct 2021
2088 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:12 am to
I dropped a few hundred on the Tennessee ML at -160. I’m fine with buying an LSU win and if they lose, I made a few hundred bucks.

frick me. FanDuel is now -2.5 and -138 ML
This post was edited on 10/3/22 at 10:15 am
Posted by hall59tiger
Member since Oct 2013
2432 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:15 am to
Fan duel has it at 2.5 right now
I’m surprised but what the hell do I know
Posted by LifeAquatic
Member since Dec 2019
1785 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:17 am to
quote:

most colleges would be ecstatic with a QB that has a 68% completion 915 yard



I'm not a jayden daniels hater by any stretch--i think he's the clear choice given the limitations and inexperience of this OL, as his rushing ability gives our offense a much-needed floor--but I promise "most colleges" wouldnt be "ecstatic" with a guy who's throwing for 180yds/gm on 7.0yds/att with this group of receivers. You should be able to put up 180/gm purely on the back of these WRs' natural ability.


I will agree that he has been excellent at avoiding turnovers (though the reluctance to make tight window throws has certainly cost us in other regards).



Oh, and one more nitpick: His "QBR" is not 141.7. That's his Passer Rating/Passing efficiency. QBR is a completely separate thing that is graded on a scale of 0-100.
Posted by LSBoosie
Member since Jun 2020
7760 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:51 am to
quote:

They’re very good on offense…just like MSU…but LSU has a damn good D

LSU isn’t good on offense and Tenn is bad on D.

That’s what they see.

Tennessee's offense is on a different level than Miss St. In fact LSU has a higher ranked offense than Miss St.
Posted by geauxtigers33
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2014
13734 posts
Posted on 10/3/22 at 10:56 am to
quote:

What is Vegas seeing that the ranters aren't seeing?


Idk what they are seeing but they are using common sense and logic. Something that doesn’t exist on this board.

Analytics love LSU which is more of what Vegas goes off of.
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