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Posted on 2/22/24 at 3:31 pm to TheBanana
Pretty slim with our NET ranking. We have a fairly easy remaining SEC schedule, playing all the bottom teams in the league. It's not out of the question that we could win out. However, that might put us in the 60's at best and bubble consideration. I think we would have to win out, and get two wins in the SEC tournament, which would likely give us a Q1 win or a ranked opponent. It's possible, but is a tough road. I think NIT is our likely destination. If we can do that after what happened last season, that would be a pleasant surprise and a good building block for the future. CMM is proving a bunch of people wrong this season. He has this team playing tough coming down the stretch. Our freshmen and sophmores are really stepping up and following some good leadership from Wright and Hannibal.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:16 pm to TheBanana
Beating ranked teams on a regular basis certainly helps.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:19 pm to TheBanana
We would have to win out the rest of our SEC schedule and win some games in the tourney.
TBH idc about NCAAT (for this season). I'm down to host an NIT game.
TBH idc about NCAAT (for this season). I'm down to host an NIT game.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 4:20 pm
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:22 pm to lowhound
Rugters didn't make the tourney last year with a NET of 40, but they did the year before with a NET of 77.
THe Net rankings aren't the end all be all.
I think SOS, especially your non-conference SOS is important. We are 71st in non-conference SOS. That Rutgers team that had a NET of 40 had a non conference SOS of 314 and had 3 Q3 losses.
The committe would rather you have a top 40 OOC SOS and go 9-4 with no Q3/Q4 losses than go 12-1 with a OOC SOS of 150 and your loss is a Q3 loss.
Our 1 Q4 loss isn't that big of a deal. It's just 1.
What i think will be important is getting our Q1 record closer to even. IF we can be 6-8 in Q1 and 5-4 Q2 (that's losing in the SECT title game), i think we'll be a bubble team for sure. That's assuming we finish the season going 8-1. One thing the committee does take into consideration is who you are today. We'd be a pretty hot team if that happens.
THe Vandy team that was left out went on a nice run as well to end the season, but they were just 5-11 in Q1, and had a nice non-conference SOS of 48. THey also had 2 Q3 losses and a Q1 loss. And that team was the 3rd team left out the tourney, with a 81 NET ranking.
I think the committee has shown that they aren't just looking at the number of Q1 wins, as much as your Q1 record. Going 3-2 in Q1 is better than going 5-11 in their eyes.
They are going to look at KenPom and Sagarin rankings as well.
The fact that we are even having this conversation about what it would take to maket the tourney is exciting enough for me to call this season a success, which i was not expecting after the start we had. I honestly don't care if we make the tourney or not, i just want to keep winning and finish the year on a high note and bring that momentum into next year. And yes i expect to be in the tourney next year, no excuses.
THe Net rankings aren't the end all be all.
I think SOS, especially your non-conference SOS is important. We are 71st in non-conference SOS. That Rutgers team that had a NET of 40 had a non conference SOS of 314 and had 3 Q3 losses.
The committe would rather you have a top 40 OOC SOS and go 9-4 with no Q3/Q4 losses than go 12-1 with a OOC SOS of 150 and your loss is a Q3 loss.
Our 1 Q4 loss isn't that big of a deal. It's just 1.
What i think will be important is getting our Q1 record closer to even. IF we can be 6-8 in Q1 and 5-4 Q2 (that's losing in the SECT title game), i think we'll be a bubble team for sure. That's assuming we finish the season going 8-1. One thing the committee does take into consideration is who you are today. We'd be a pretty hot team if that happens.
THe Vandy team that was left out went on a nice run as well to end the season, but they were just 5-11 in Q1, and had a nice non-conference SOS of 48. THey also had 2 Q3 losses and a Q1 loss. And that team was the 3rd team left out the tourney, with a 81 NET ranking.
I think the committee has shown that they aren't just looking at the number of Q1 wins, as much as your Q1 record. Going 3-2 in Q1 is better than going 5-11 in their eyes.
They are going to look at KenPom and Sagarin rankings as well.
The fact that we are even having this conversation about what it would take to maket the tourney is exciting enough for me to call this season a success, which i was not expecting after the start we had. I honestly don't care if we make the tourney or not, i just want to keep winning and finish the year on a high note and bring that momentum into next year. And yes i expect to be in the tourney next year, no excuses.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 4:24 pm
Posted on 2/22/24 at 4:47 pm to TeddyPadillac
Who you beat and where you beat them is probably the most simplistic statement of what is most important. Bad losses don't kill. Not beating good teams and not being able to win away from home generally does.
Wake Forest is probably a good example. Their NET ranking is currently 27. They are 17-9. Their SOS (while not great) is 73. They aren't even being included in the "last 4 out" projections.
Why?
They are 3-9 away from home (1-5 in Q1 games). And that one win is very perilous because it is a home win vs. Florida who is JUST inside the top 30.
LSU's NET rating is bad. But they do have some positives. SOS is a great 14 (though that will soon go down some). More importantly, they have 4 Q1 wins (at the moment). Like you said, wins at Arkansas and Vandy won't move the needled subjectively. But it would bring LSU's record away from home to 6-8. That's not "good", but not terrible when compared to some other teams on the bubble:
Nebraska: 3-7
Oregon 4-6
Utah 4-8
Ole Miss 5-6
It is a very LONG shot for LSU. And they have zero margin for error. But thinking literally one week ago that we could be having this discussion would have been ridiculous. Now, not so much. The frustrating part...if LSU could have gotten that win at Florida we'd be having really GOOD conversation.
Wake Forest is probably a good example. Their NET ranking is currently 27. They are 17-9. Their SOS (while not great) is 73. They aren't even being included in the "last 4 out" projections.
Why?
They are 3-9 away from home (1-5 in Q1 games). And that one win is very perilous because it is a home win vs. Florida who is JUST inside the top 30.
LSU's NET rating is bad. But they do have some positives. SOS is a great 14 (though that will soon go down some). More importantly, they have 4 Q1 wins (at the moment). Like you said, wins at Arkansas and Vandy won't move the needled subjectively. But it would bring LSU's record away from home to 6-8. That's not "good", but not terrible when compared to some other teams on the bubble:
Nebraska: 3-7
Oregon 4-6
Utah 4-8
Ole Miss 5-6
It is a very LONG shot for LSU. And they have zero margin for error. But thinking literally one week ago that we could be having this discussion would have been ridiculous. Now, not so much. The frustrating part...if LSU could have gotten that win at Florida we'd be having really GOOD conversation.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 5:19 pm to TheBanana
Win out in regular season and 2 SEC tournament wins.
But 12 losses as of now, just sucks. If MM can keep up his energy, Ward continues to step up and Reid can be more consistent, we have a chance.
But 12 losses as of now, just sucks. If MM can keep up his energy, Ward continues to step up and Reid can be more consistent, we have a chance.
This post was edited on 2/22/24 at 5:21 pm
Posted on 2/22/24 at 5:21 pm to Alt26
On another note, I would say the Dayton loss was a bigger loss than the Nicholls loss.
That was a Q1 game away from home that we were winning by 3 with 1:25 left and lost by 3.
Dayton is 19 in the NET right now, and would be our best win on the season easily.
One thing the committe always looks at is what are your 5 best wins.
Would have been really nice to be able to say
#19 OOC at a neutral site
#26 OOC at a neutral site
#24 at home
#36 at home
#49 & #57 away
I think there are 6 locks to make the tourney from the SEC
Bama/Tenn/Auburn
UF/Kentucky/USC
the next 4 teams are all bubble teams at best.
MSU #36
A&M #49
Ole Piss #68
LSU #85
All 3 of those other schools are currently in the tourney, barely.
We've beaten Ole Piss, 1-1 against A&M, and need to beat MSU.
Ole Piss and MSU are 3-6 in Q1, with no bad losses.
LSU sitting at 4-7, with the 1 bad loss
A&M are 6-5 in Q1, which is something that is going to trump the other 3 schools in a big way, but they also have 4 Q3 losses.
OOC SOS
A&M 15
LSU 106
MSU 184
Ole Piss 283
I think you look at all that and we have a really good chance to pass up Ole Piss and MSU in the bracketology, and I think A&M is likely to get into the tourney if they can finish 9-9 in the SEC, and would be definitely in if they are 10-8. 8-10 and they are out. That OOC SOS is goign to really help them, and really hurt Ole Piss.
That was a Q1 game away from home that we were winning by 3 with 1:25 left and lost by 3.
Dayton is 19 in the NET right now, and would be our best win on the season easily.
One thing the committe always looks at is what are your 5 best wins.
Would have been really nice to be able to say
#19 OOC at a neutral site
#26 OOC at a neutral site
#24 at home
#36 at home
#49 & #57 away
I think there are 6 locks to make the tourney from the SEC
Bama/Tenn/Auburn
UF/Kentucky/USC
the next 4 teams are all bubble teams at best.
MSU #36
A&M #49
Ole Piss #68
LSU #85
All 3 of those other schools are currently in the tourney, barely.
We've beaten Ole Piss, 1-1 against A&M, and need to beat MSU.
Ole Piss and MSU are 3-6 in Q1, with no bad losses.
LSU sitting at 4-7, with the 1 bad loss
A&M are 6-5 in Q1, which is something that is going to trump the other 3 schools in a big way, but they also have 4 Q3 losses.
OOC SOS
A&M 15
LSU 106
MSU 184
Ole Piss 283
I think you look at all that and we have a really good chance to pass up Ole Piss and MSU in the bracketology, and I think A&M is likely to get into the tourney if they can finish 9-9 in the SEC, and would be definitely in if they are 10-8. 8-10 and they are out. That OOC SOS is goign to really help them, and really hurt Ole Piss.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 5:31 pm to TheBanana
They’re not making it, but if we can keep a few key pieces with the recruiting class coming in… Next year is going to be fun.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 6:07 pm to TeddyPadillac
I keep seeing posts that were at 85, but Kenpom has us at 75.
LINK
I think winning out would get us into the 50s and in the tournament.
LINK
I think winning out would get us into the 50s and in the tournament.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 6:38 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
think there are 6 locks to make the tourney from the SEC Bama/Tenn/Auburn UF/Kentucky/USC
USCe is certainly not a lock based on their remaining schedule and NET ranking of 57
Posted on 2/22/24 at 6:45 pm to hubertcumberdale
Net only went from 88 to 85 by beating uk
Bama would have to be a must win and you can’t drop any games you are supposed to win
One thing Wade was a master at was manipulating the non conf net
Bama would have to be a must win and you can’t drop any games you are supposed to win
One thing Wade was a master at was manipulating the non conf net
Posted on 2/22/24 at 6:45 pm to Lapaz
quote:
I keep seeing posts that were at 85, but Kenpom has us at 75.
well they aren't the same.
KenPom doesn't care where the game is played. THe NET rankings are based very largely on where the game is played.
They both use NET effeciency as a component, but the NET uses points per 100 possessions, while KENPOM uses some unknown calculated adjusted Net effeciency that's supposed to be more of a predictive ranking.
The selection committee officially uses the NET, ESPN’s Strength of Record and BPI, KPI, KenPom, and Sagarin rankings to evaluate each team.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 6:51 pm to Hold That Tiger 10
We win 4 0r 5 more games should be NIT lock
Posted on 2/22/24 at 6:52 pm to hubertcumberdale
quote:
USCe is certainly not a lock based on their remaining schedule and NET ranking of 57
They are 21-5 and 9-4 in the SEC. THey go 3-2 to close out the year and finish 12-6, they are making the tourney without a doubt.
I'm assuming they go 3-2. Even if they go 2-3, it's still a really good chance they are in, although that 243 OOC SOS certainly isn't going to help them at all.
Posted on 2/22/24 at 7:02 pm to Lapaz
quote:We are 85 in NET NCAA Men's Basketball NET Rankings
I keep seeing posts that were at 85, but Kenpom has us at 75.
LINK /
I think winning out would get us into the 50s and in the tournament.
quote:Highly unlikely we hit the 50s in either NET or Kenpom.
I think winning out would get us into the 50s and in the tournament.
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