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9-9 seems about right. We’ll win a couple surprisingly and lose a couple surprisingly, because that’s basketball.
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I like Tamba but at 6-6, 210lbs he’s gonna have a hard time vs SEC 4s. IMO ideally he’s a 6th man type guy. He’s not awful on offense skill wise but he gets lost at times. I like King too, I wish we saw more of he and Carter, especially in a game like tonight.
Carter is way too passive. I don't think he helps much. I think Tamba is athletic enough to play the 4, but we'll see. I think the rotation is settling out to be Sutton, Thomas, McKinnon, Tamba, Nwoko, Reece, King, and Miller, in order of the minutes they'll get. Nwoko would get more if he could play without fouling.
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Tonight was a win. But it was in no way, shape or form a “great” win. The hyperbolic takes with no supporting logic on either end of the spectrum are ridiculous
It definitely wasn't a great win, but it's good that they fought back to win. Joseph and Horne played out of their minds, but LSU figured out how to neutralize them. It shouldn't have been this close, but it is a good win, since they had to overcome an opponent that was playing with great confidence.
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Correct but I meant at the forward spots. Guards are all typically small ya know. I like Tamba’s energy but he’s too small and he gets lost on our secondary offensive sets but he fit well vs PV tonight.
I think Tamba has been starting since he is a good defender and rebounder, but I think Tamba has been improving offensively every game. I thought he made some good cuts today.
King was huge today. He hasn't been an offensive threat, but he looked good shooting today. If he can shoot better, then he needs more minutes.
quote:
Terrible defense again, PV was able to get wherever they wanted to off the dribble. They were small and quick, we probably should’ve gone small once they got rolling but we didn’t. We turned it over some bit on offense anytime we were just patient we got what we wanted. Second half refs helped us out a lot but they burned out some and once they started losing players to fouls we took control.
LSU did go small for most of the 2nd half. Reece and Thomas played a lot of the 2nd half together, and they did pretty decent. I think we may have been at our best with Tamba, King, Sutton, Reece and Thomas.
re: Either Prairie View is an AWESOME Basketball team or……
Posted by Lapaz on 12/22/25 at 9:16 pm to canone4life
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Or none of the above. Prairie View shot lights out first half. I would concede that it took McMahon a bit too long to change things up and make adjustments, but he did.
The more concerning thing to me is how Miller can be as ineffective as he is with his size.
PV was fired-up and shot way above their season averages. I thought the defense was decent. 3 of their players are from Louisiana, and it seems they wanted to show out. They had 2 players that shot way above their season average. Horne and Joseph kept them in the game. Most of the 3 pointers that Joseph took were well guarded. Joseph was averaging 30% on 3 pointers, but made 5 of 9 today, and Horne was shooting 32%, and he shot 3 of 4. CMM probably figured they couldn't keep shooting like that, but finally adjusted the defense to force those 2 to start giving it up. I don't know if CMM scouts these teams, but Joseph is their alpha, so we should've focused a lot more energy on him.
Miller had a terrible game, but he's usually way better than he was today. The one play that frustrated me was the fastbreak when he was running with Thomas. Thomas passed the ball to him close to the goal, and then instead of going up strong, he tried to lay it up, and missed. Even though he was fouled, he should've gone up strong to dunk it, and possibly had a 3 point play. Then he missed 1 of the 2 free throws. It just looked so passive. I've seen him play with fire this year, but he was way off today.
LSU is lucky to win this game. They only won by drawing fouls.
re: Ole Miss will smoke UGA
Posted by Lapaz on 12/20/25 at 8:16 pm to saintsfan22
quote:
They're not even running away from Tulane
Exactly. The Tulane game was much closer than the score. Tulane kept gambling on 4th down in their territory, and didn't convert, but Tulane had over 400 yards of offense. The game would've been close if Tulane had punted and not committed the turnovers. Georgia's offense and defense are better than Tulane's, and I think the turmoil at Ole Miss will make them less competitive in this game than they were in their first meeting against Georgia.
This team is very vulnerable, because it is easy to make it very hard to get shots off if your team only has one good 3pt shooter. Sutton is a career 25% shooter, and this is his best year so far, so I don’t expect that to improve. Thomas is a career 34% shooting, and this is by far his worst year, which has brought his career average down. He shot 35 and 36% in other seasons. If he returns to his average, we’ll be much harder to defend. The only other good healthy 3pt shooters seem to be Carter, Zipper, and Mosley. I was looking at their BPRs, and the best of that group is Zipper, but all 3 are negative. Zipper’s BPR is much better than King’s, so it seems to justify more playing time for Zipper. Max has the 3rd best BPR behind Thomas and Nwoko, with Tampa 4th and Sutton 5th, so that supports them starting, but Zipper is a wild card, because he seems less lost every successive time I see him play. If he can figure out the American game, his BPR should improve even more, and he may be our ace when Max goes cold.
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yes 9-9 LINK
It appears that the 9-9 projection includes a loss to Miss State, which Torvic projects as 50/50. I think that is a likely win to make them 10-8.
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There is no "right" or "wrong". The NET ranking are just the sum of data/numbers. Is LSU a good team this year? There's evidence to suggest they might be. But no one will fully know until SEC play starts and they are playing 2x per week against quality opponents. All I'm saying is that predicting 4, 5, 6 wins in a 7 game stretch for a coach who has only had one such stretch in 3 seasons (and 3 of the wins in that stretch were by a single point) is VERY optimistic.
McMahon hasn't done well with LSU, but I've seen some good coaching this year, and I see a team with enough talent to pull off a few surprise wins, while I also see a team that is consistently beating teams by margins that we expect. They just beat a good SMU team by 12 points, and I think 6 of the other 15 SEC teams are not as good as SMU, so I'm optimistic.
I don't think the SEC has an elite team this year, but I think the best teams in the SEC this year are Alabama, Arkansas, and Auburn, and I think all 3 have a decent chance to make the final 4. I think Kentucky, Vanderbilt and Florida are in the next group of very good teams. I think LSU is in a group with Georgia, Tennessee, Oklahoma and Texas of good teams, so the home team will get the edge in those games. Then the rest of the SEC are average to poor teams. So on a neutral field, I see 6 teams that will likely beat LSU, 4 that would be tossups but a likely win for the home team, and 5 that LSU would likely beat regardless of the venue.
I didn't predict 4, 5, or 6 wins. I actually said I would be shocked if they got 6 wins, but 5 would not be shocking, and 3 or 4 wins were likely. I was responding to the people who said we would be lucky to get 2 wins. I revisited the 7 team stretch with my strength grouping in mind, and I've changed my mind a little. I now think 3 wins is the most likely with wins at Texas and at Ole Miss, and a home win against Oklahoma, then likely losses against Arkansas, Auburn, and Alabama, but those are all home games which could generate a shocking win, but the best bet to get to 4 wins will be at Tennessee, which I think is more likely a loss. If they only win 2 of those 7 games, that would mean LSU is underperforming, and I think 5 wins would be a little shocking, because it would require overperforming, but this is basketball, and most teams don't perform the same from game to game, and matchups matter, so we'll see.
quote:
When I’m trying to lean away from my own bias, espn matchup predictor along with Bart torvic usually can at least give me some sort of confirmation. ESPN’s matchup predictor last I looked at it on Saturday after the win has lsu more likely to win 7 conference games. Bart torvic predicted a 9-9 conference record. Of course you can’t predict injuries or the effect of momentum or co fence a team has effecting future results. But right now analytics predict us at or slightly below .500 fwiw
I know you said Torvic predicted 9-9 after the SMU win, but how often does Torvic update the predictions? Did you happen to check before the win to see if the prediction changed? I'd also be curious if it is still 9-9 today. Also, 9-9 is probably going to be close. I'm expecting 10-8 or 11-7 in the SEC, which would be our best season under McMahon. That would still be a good result for a strong SEC, even if it isn't the juggernaut that it was last year. What is Torvic's track record? Did he predict our 9-9 season in McMahon's first season?
re: SMU is a good win
Posted by Lapaz on 12/15/25 at 3:55 pm to Bert Macklin FBI
quote:
Did McMahon not recuit and put together his previous teams?
I am not someone who is rooting against CMM, I have my doubts about his coaching ability, but I want him to succeed. Saying that you can'y use any of the historical data on him seems like a bit of a stretch and cop out.
McMahon made some mistakes building those rosters, but he was supposedly handicapped with little resources. That highlighted the mistakes. Other programs miss on prospects, but their resources hid their mistakes. Beyond those recruiting mistakes, he hasn't been the best coach consistently, but he has had some very good coaching games. There are others that also didn't coach well, but did better since they were richer. All I care about is to analyze how this team is doing. I don't have access to some analytic sites, so I'm going by what I've seen, and the ones that are available. That leads me to optimistically expecting at least 3 wins in the tough stretch of games, and the best SEC season under McMahon.
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quote:
Feels like two big variables for this team are:
1. How well does Max shoot and can he get going?
2. Can Nwoko stay out of foul trouble and stay on the floor?
When one of those things happens, seems like we at least have a chance. When neither happen, we become way too limited.
Both of your points are valid, but don't tell the whole story. Tamba and Sutton were the keys to this win. Along with Thomas who has been consistently good so far this year. The spanking we took from Texas Tech was probably the worst game Thomas has had with us.
I don't think of Sutton as a key to win, just like I don't think of DJ Thomas as a key, because I think both of those guys consistently show up. I think Max's shooting (since no one else seems to be consistent with 3s) and Nwoko's foul trouble are the keys, since those are the inconsistent variables. If Miller could become a better player, and if someone else can become a consistent 3 point threat that doesn't hurt us too much when he is in the game, then the keys to victory will change.
re: SMU is a good win
Posted by Lapaz on 12/15/25 at 3:25 pm to mcspufftiger7
quote:
LOL you are more optimistic than even I am. Be prepare to be deluged with "you're an idiot" posts.
I am optimistic, as most fans should be, but I also think NET grounds the optimism. It isn't a totally emotional argument. I'm enjoying the season, and I'm optimistic that it will continue.
quote:
NET is totally data driven. There is no subjectivity in it. The data says that's where LSU is currently ranked unless and until it doesn't.
This is much more valid than results from his previous 3 teams. This is a totally different team.
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McMahon has only won ~25% of his 54 SEC (reg season) games. When you further expand that to true road games, the winning % gets much worse. He's a career 4-23 in such games. (.150). Thus, to ASSUME LSU wins any SEC game is contrary to what the numbers say. To ASSUME they win any true road games is even moreso.
Those numbers are irrelevant, since they are for totally different teams. There are only 2 past players on this team, and one is out for the season. Results from this team are all that matters. If your argument is based on McMann's coaching prowess, it is still invalid, because he has never been on a level field. I really don't care about those arguments that people love to dwell upon. I only care to evaluate the team this year, and how they are faring. While more data is needed for NET, what I've seen justifies a NET in the 30s. They may end up 39 or 30, but I think 30s is justitfied. Some of the other NETs may be wrong too. Auburn may be better than us, but Arkansas and Alabama may not be as good as their NET. The NETs will change, but I've seen a team with talent that will do well. 5-2 is definitely optimistic, but that would not shock me. 6-1 or 7-0 would shock me, but likewise, if they fall on their face, and only win 2 out of those 7, then I will be equally shocked.
re: SMU is a good win
Posted by Lapaz on 12/15/25 at 2:29 pm to Romney Wordsworth
quote:
Arkansas
at Tennessee
at Texas
Alabama
at Ole Miss
Oklahoma
at Auburn
We’ll be lucky to get 2 wins in this stretch.
LSU is currently 32 in NET, and I think that is a realistic rating. I'd be very surprised if they only win 2 games in this stretch. Here are the NET for the teams you listed:
18 Arkansas - likely loss, but it's home, so possible win
35 at Tennessee - likely loss since away
69 at Texas - likely win, as LSU has beaten 2 top 50 teams away from home.
14 Alabama - likely loss.
97 at Ole Miss - likely win
50 Oklahoma - likely win
33 Auburn - better than 50% chance to win.
I think 3-4 in this stretch is very likely, 4-3 is likely, and 5-2 would not be a shocker. The only 2 teams in the stretch that are significantly better are Arkansas and Alabama, and both of those are home games, so we could shock either of those teams. If we do shock one of those teams, then we could shockingly be 6-1 in that stretch.
quote:
McMahon has done nothing to earn the benefit of the doubt. He had big wins before that ultimately meant nothing once SEC play started.
The thing that makes this year's team promising is they have consistently found ways to beat lesser opponents convincingly. Previous teams did not win convincingly consistently against lesser opponents. Previous teams had some very good games, but this team has been consistent, except for the Tech game.
They are not a great team, because they lack depth, particularly at 3 point shooting depth. They will lose games due to their frontcourt getting in foul trouble and when Max goes cold, which is what happened against Tech. Both happening is a death sentence to this team. When their frontcourt stays out of foul trouble and when Max is hot, then I think they will win most games, even against the likes of Texas Tech. With only 1 happening, they will be able to beat some bubble teams. They beat SMU just on Max's hot shooting, even with the frontcourt getting in foul trouble. That's our clearest path to victories. We need a good 3 point threat for our frontcourt to get room to operate. If Max is cold, unless someone else can become a steady 3 point threat, we won't beat many good teams. I think we may get a couple of wins against bubble teams with just our frontcourt staying out of foul trouble, even without good 3 point shooting, but those wins will be fewer and further between.
The reason it hurts to lose Reed is that Nwoko gets in foul trouble every game, and Reed is better than Milller. Miller keeps improving, but he also fouls a lot. Reed played strong, could score from anywhere, and played sound defense. He wasn’t an allstar, but he made us better. His loss was way bigger last year, but it is still significant this year too. Sutton is the wild card , because he can play the 5 spot , but he isn’t nearly as strong as most 5s in the SEC. His quickness may make up for it when needed. Last year we didn’t have other options, so I think Reed’s loss will be overcome, but it isn’t a given.
re: That was a good damn win against SMU
Posted by Lapaz on 12/14/25 at 9:04 am to Blast and Laugh
Yep, this was a good win, and very important for their confidence. We showed we could play with Sutton at the 5, and Tamba at the 4. Tamba was a shocker. He made some very athletic plays, and showed better finishing skills than I thought he had. Plus he plays tough defense and attacked the boards. Sutton played great, and that’s what he has to do consistently for this team to be good. The team defended pretty well overall. If it can keep up that defensive energy, with their shooting ability, we will have a very good season.
My only concern is the 3 ball. No one else is stepping up besides Max. Max was on fire, but it’s unrealistic to count on that. We need others to become reliable 3 point shooters. Zipper came in and seemed to do his job. He was open a bunch of times, but they didn’t pass him the ball to try to get a 3 off. I didn’t understand that, and it makes me wonder if there is something going on behind the scenes that could be a problem.
My only concern is the 3 ball. No one else is stepping up besides Max. Max was on fire, but it’s unrealistic to count on that. We need others to become reliable 3 point shooters. Zipper came in and seemed to do his job. He was open a bunch of times, but they didn’t pass him the ball to try to get a 3 off. I didn’t understand that, and it makes me wonder if there is something going on behind the scenes that could be a problem.
re: McMahon quote after Texas Tech loss
Posted by Lapaz on 12/9/25 at 2:42 pm to iamandykeim
quote:
I mean not sure how you can disagree with the statement. They shot the lights out, we couldn't get anything to fall. I didn't think we were getting bad looks, either.
What troubled me is that while Tech shot better than their average and we shot below, Tech has 2 players that shoot nearly 45%, so we should’ve focused on them. Max also shoots over 40%, and I think Tech made it hard for him to get open looks.
re: The WBB team and the National Anthem
Posted by Lapaz on 12/8/25 at 3:59 pm to SpartanSoul
It was cool to watch Bella Hines getting into the singing. A lot of the other girls seemed shy. I'm surprised that Flaujae wasn't busting it out like Bella.
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