re: Was a myth created by the talent of Mett, OB, and Landry?

His reasoning was retarded.

We were balanced all year outside of blowout wins

TCU: 32 passes/45 runs
-Winning the entire game
Auburn: 22/40
-Wet field/blew them out
UGA: 37/32
MSU: 29/36
-Winning entire game
UF: 17/37
Ole Miss: 33/32
-Should have ran it down their throats
Bama: 23/25
A&M: 20/53
-Complete blowout
Arky: 29/31

The games we threw more in are the games we struggled

Comes out to about a 57/43 run/pass

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There's your false narrative right there.

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Fair enough. 72% is quite a bit more unbalanced than 60%.

I still stand by my point about neutral downs, which I have yet to hear anyone disagree with. Les Miles is heavily biased to run on these downs. Unfortunately, these would be the easiest passing downs for a young quarterback. I'm not asking for him to be 50/50 in these situation with a young quarter back, but I think we should be throwing on 1st and 10 a bit more often than 2 times a game.

ETA: On second thought, I don't know why I am putting this in this thread. I don't agree with the original premise. My point is more about the years excluding 2013.

Go back to those boards, Cliff.

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Looking back on Mett, OB, and Landry...we converted a shite load of third and forever downs. Hell against Georgia alone, it seemed like 3 or 4 third and 15 plus were converted. My point is, did we really have an open passing attack that year, or (other than the deep ball over the top), were we forced into some long third downs that we converted (regularly I might add) that added to the passing total. It seems like a lot of Miles defenders point to this season as his example of unleashing the passing game. Looking back, I don't know if that's is true. There was a reason we were continually in third and long to start with.

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HIT OR MYTH??

DATA FOR ZACH METTENBERGER

Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . Att . . . Comp. . . Yards

1st Down . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 . . . . 77 . . . . 1293

2nd Down. . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 . . . . 54 . . . . . 773

3rd Down . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 . . . . 58 . . . . . 974
3rd Down, 1-3 To Go . . . . . 9 . . . . . 7 .. . . . . 73
3rd Down, 4-6 To Go . . . . 27 .. . . . 21 . . . . 315
3rd Down, 7-9 To Go . . . . 22 .. . . . 16 . . . . 280
3rd Down, 10+ To Go. . . . 31 .. . . . 14 . . . . 306

4th Down . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 .. . . . . 3 . . . . . 42


ANALYSIS
The first thing that should jump out at you is that LSU had 121 passes (40.89%) on first down. That fact should completely dispel any myth that Cameron and Miles won't pass on first down.

To perform the analysis concerning "third and long," we must define the term "third and long."

If "third and long" means 3rd and 10+ yards:
LSU had only 31 passes (10.47%) and 306 yards (9.93%) on third down plays in which LSU needed 10+ yards. If "third and long" means 3rd and 10+ yards: Myth Busted.

If "third and long" means 3rd and 7+ yards:
LSU had only 53 passes (17.91%) and 586 yards (19.01%) on third down plays in which LSU needed 7+ yards. If "third and long" means 3rd and 7+ yards: Myth Busted.

If "third and long" means 3rd and 4+ yards:
LSU had only 80 passes (27.03%) and 901 yards (29.23%) on third down plays in which LSU needed 4+ yards. If "third and long" means 3rd and 4+ yards: Myth Busted.

At 3rd and 4-6, LSU is certainly "behind the chains," but I wouldn't call that third and long. Rather, I would be inclined to define "third and long" as 3rd and 7+ yards. LSU attempted only 17.91% of its pass plays at 3rd and 7+, and LSU gained only 19.01% of its yards at 3rd and 7+. Thus, LSU attempted over 80% of its passes and gained over 80% of its yards when it was not "third and long."

Even at 3rd and 4+ yards, LSU only attemtpted 27.03% of its passes and gained only 29.23 percent of its passing yards. That's less than one/third.

In short, LSU did not get most, or even close to most, of its yards on "third and long" in 2013.

no jeremy hill...tread shite

The only SEC school in history with a 3000+ yard passer, 2- 1000+ yard receivers and a 1400+ yard rusher and you insinuate that it was overblown. That attack had more 1st down play-action passes than any I can ever recall at LSU. With Mett at QB, they had only 2 bad offensive halves all year that I can recall. With a defense similar to '11 that team probably wins it all.

LSU did not pass a lot in any sense of that phrase. 71 yards is OK for a quarter or so, but not a game. It is the same a Jennings for crying out loud.

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Throwing on first down is what puts you in third and long situations, not running on first down

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Either one can do it if the opponent stops it. A play is much less likely to work if the opponent knows what you are going to do, either by formation or by play calling tendency. Over the years, we have gotten into many 3rd and longs after running on first down because the opponent knows we will run and stacks the box. The best way to avoid 3rd and long is to have balance on early downs (making you unpredictable) and not telegraph your intentions (usually by formation). And of course you have to execute the plays.

That said, most of our 3rd and long situations against MSU were because of penalties, which will also do it regardless of which plays you run.

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Ace Midnight

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What the hell are you babbling about? I even said in my post that I should not have been posting my thoughts in this thread AND that I did not support to OP premise. And how was I "demolished by actual, data-based analysis"? I SAID I DON'T SUPPORT THE OP PREMISE.

If it makes you feel to better RA my post, go for it. Don't worry, I won't lose sleep over it.

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Clearly we don't throw on 1st down...

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you do realize there are many more 1st downs than 3rd downs