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re: Should LSU baseball host a regional more than 40% of the time?
Posted on 5/18/26 at 8:41 am to josh336
Posted on 5/18/26 at 8:41 am to josh336
quote:
Also, are you willing to look into the reasons why, or just bury your head in the sand and say, the numbers arent good enough? Is their nuance allowed in the discussion?
You know that any attempt to discuss the nuances will be met with accusations of making excuses and being okay with the results this season.
1
Posted on 5/18/26 at 8:47 am to Jack Daniel
In their first 5 seasons?
Best regional host percentage per coach for their first 5 years with supers made (not hosted and if applicable), CWS appearances, and NCs.
Smoke Laval - 4/5 - 80% - 2 Supers - 2CWS - 0NC
Paul Manieri - 2/5 - 40% - 2 Supers - 2 CWS - 1 NC
Jay Johnson - 2/5 - 40% - 2 Supers - 2 CWS - 2 NC
Skip Bertman - 1/5 - 20% - 1 CWS - 0 NC
All the others - 0%
Next 5 years
Skip Bertman - 4/5 - 80% - 4 CWS - 2 NC
Paul Manieri - 5/5 - 100% - 4 Supers - 2 CWS - 0 NC
Jay Johnson - time will tell
Smoke Laval - Fired
All the others - 0%
In the 42 seasons that had a postseason (COVID stole one) since Skip took the helm, LSU has hosted a regional 28 times (66.67%).
The last 10 seasons with a postseason were 50%.
Best regional host percentage per coach for their first 5 years with supers made (not hosted and if applicable), CWS appearances, and NCs.
Smoke Laval - 4/5 - 80% - 2 Supers - 2CWS - 0NC
Paul Manieri - 2/5 - 40% - 2 Supers - 2 CWS - 1 NC
Jay Johnson - 2/5 - 40% - 2 Supers - 2 CWS - 2 NC
Skip Bertman - 1/5 - 20% - 1 CWS - 0 NC
All the others - 0%
Next 5 years
Skip Bertman - 4/5 - 80% - 4 CWS - 2 NC
Paul Manieri - 5/5 - 100% - 4 Supers - 2 CWS - 0 NC
Jay Johnson - time will tell
Smoke Laval - Fired
All the others - 0%
In the 42 seasons that had a postseason (COVID stole one) since Skip took the helm, LSU has hosted a regional 28 times (66.67%).
The last 10 seasons with a postseason were 50%.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 8:52 am to mdomingue
quote:
In the 42 seasons that had a postseason (COVID stole one) since Skip took the helm, LSU has hosted a regional 28 times (66.67%).
The last 10 seasons with a postseason were 50%.
This speaks to the macro trends in college baseball of more schools actually trying, especially in the SEC.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 8:56 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
This speaks to the macro trends in college baseball of more schools actually trying, especially in the SEC.
It does, now amplified with Oklahoma and Texas in the SEC.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 8:56 am to josh336
quote:Absolutely not, and anyone who says differently is an idiot
Okay, but instead of beating around the bush, ask what you want to ask? Are you unhappy in totality with jay johnsons first 4.9 years at lsu?
But I think logically, one can worry is it sustainable at all with the volatility we have shown. Usually a dominant program in baseball stays at the top and they run into titles because they are always knocking at the door
Being terrible every other year and winning a title in the year you are good doesn’t seem realistic for any real period of time. I thinks it’s ok to say we need to find a way to consistently be good
Posted on 5/18/26 at 8:57 am to moneyg
quote:
40% NC percentage is through the roof and obviously more important
It isn’t sustainable at .500 SEC clip and missing regionals. No LSU coach since Skip has been this poor in league play. 5 sweeps in last 6 series is atrocious. If we get swept 5 times next year the majority of this board will want JJ fired.
History shows we have to be a national seed with SR host to win nattys.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:00 am to Salmon
quote:Why not something like Florida?
its so weird to me how some of y'all so badly want to be Arkansas
Since 2010
CWS
RUNNER UP
CWS
REGIONAL
REGIONAL
CWS
CWS
NATIONAL CHAMPS
CWS
REGIONAL
REGIONAL
REGIONAL
RUNNER UP
CWS
REGIONAL
I don’t think it’s being ridiculous at all just to expect lsu to have somewhat sustainable success . You can rationally say that without a sophomoric response like “YOU WANT TO FIRE JAY???” or “YOU WANT TO BE ARKANSAS???”
This post was edited on 5/18/26 at 9:01 am
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:06 am to lsupride87
quote:
I don’t think it’s being ridiculous at all just to expect lsu to have somewhat sustainable success .
It's not
and just FYI, Florida has only hosted a regional 1 more times than LSU in the last 5 years, with zero NCs
quote:
You can rationally say that without a sophomoric response like “YOU WANT TO FIRE JAY???” or “YOU WANT TO BE ARKANSAS???”
My post was more in response to the OPs entire post history, not just this post
OP was calling Jay "Jay Orgeron" literally last year and then disappeared when they went on their run, and is now back all over the board
He has an agenda
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:08 am to lsupride87
quote:I mean, in the Jay era, we've been better than Florida.
Why not something like Florida?
REGIONAL
NATIONAL CHAMPS
REGIONAL
NATIONAL CHAMPS
MISSED POST SEASON
I would take that 10/10 over wasting the amount of talent UF wastes while only winning 1 in 15 years. Like, I don't mind down years 2/5 if they're due to kind of going all in on championship years, which is what we've done.
I hate missing the post season as much as anyone, but I can deal with it if it means championships.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:12 am to PP7 for heisman
I just think in any meaningful sample size you aren’t going to win national titles in baseball without consistently being towards the top
Yes, we have managed to go title, losing sec record, title, losing sec record
But I think that’s the exception and not something that will hold as any meaningful trend. To continue to win being towards the top consistently is what it will take
It’s like saying “I’d rather win 5 majors and miss the cut at every other major than consistently be top 5”. That’s not how it really works . The guys that win multiple majors do so by being in the top , always knocking at the door giving them chances to win more
I think Jay can figure it out but I don’t think it’s crazy to talk about it
Yes, we have managed to go title, losing sec record, title, losing sec record
But I think that’s the exception and not something that will hold as any meaningful trend. To continue to win being towards the top consistently is what it will take
It’s like saying “I’d rather win 5 majors and miss the cut at every other major than consistently be top 5”. That’s not how it really works . The guys that win multiple majors do so by being in the top , always knocking at the door giving them chances to win more
I think Jay can figure it out but I don’t think it’s crazy to talk about it
This post was edited on 5/18/26 at 9:15 am
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:16 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
You know that any attempt to discuss the nuances will be met with accusations of making excuses and being okay with the results this season.
This will sound mean, but really dumb people are incapable of nuance. There can't be a discussion.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:16 am to lsupride87
quote:
I think Jay can figure it out but I don’t think it’s crazy to talk about it
Its literally been talked about non stop for the past 2 months
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:17 am to Salmon
quote:And anytime it’s brought up the person gets 45 downvotes and a burning upside baseball bat in their yard
Its literally been talked about non stop for the past 2 months
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:19 am to lsupride87
quote:
And anytime it’s brought up the person gets 45 downvotes and a burning upside baseball bat in their yard
do you think its because people are afraid to talk about it, or because its the same 5 posters posting the same thread over and over again?
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:20 am to Salmon
I think it’s because most people, not you, have no ability to not think in absolute black and white
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:22 am to lsupride87
quote:
And anytime it’s brought up the person gets 45 downvotes and a burning upside baseball bat in their yard
Because you post stuff like this:
quote:
Why not something like Florida?
When the reality is UF is worse than LSU since Jay was hired. If you can’t accept one missed post season in exchange for 2 titles in 3 seasons, that’s a you problem.
Ask any UF fan if they would switch results for the last 5 seasons and every single one of them would tell you “yes”.
ETA: LSU was Florida under Mainieri. It wasn’t good enough then so I’m not sure why people think it would be good enough now.
This post was edited on 5/18/26 at 9:26 am
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:22 am to Big4SALTbro
quote:
LSU baseball in 10 years should look something like this:
In regional 10/10
Only 1 coach has done that, and only one 10-year period in LSU history has had that without that same coach being the majority of those years.
quote:
Regional host 8/10
Without Skip in the mix, that has been the case once.
quote:
In supers 6/10
I'd say 50%, but close enough.
quote:
Omaha 3/10
I'd go 40%, but again, close enough.
quote:
Natty 2/10
This past year was the first time that has happened without a Skip Bertman championship being part of the mix. The 2023 natty ended a 12 postseason drought.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:24 am to Big4SALTbro
quote:
Natty 2/10
Is this win a Natty or just appear in a Natty?
If win, I’d drop this down to 1. It’s incredibly hard to win a championship and takes a lot of luck.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:37 am to Jack Daniel
quote:
If not, what do you think is reasonable?
It would be reasonable for the OP to offer his opinion on what the rate should be. It would help see how much of a disagreement might exist.
Posted on 5/18/26 at 9:38 am to RB10
quote:I was talking only sustained consistency
When the reality is UF is worse than LSU since Jay was hired. If you can’t accept one missed post season in exchange for 2 titles in 3 seasons, that’s a you problem.
Sullivan has 3 years of losing sec records at flrorida in 19 years
Jay has 2 in 5 here
It’s not saying we want to trade, or be them, etc, it’s just showing having sustained success at LSU is what should be expected.
This post was edited on 5/18/26 at 9:40 am
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