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re: Pending home sales fall to the lowest level in 26 years
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:28 am to stout
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:28 am to stout
quote:I don't know why people are wishcasting a housing price crash. That wouldn't be good for any property owner. Get inflation under control and the market will balance itself out again over time.
No one is buying but sellers have not accepted that perhaps their house is worth less since interest rates are no longer in the 2s and 3s.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:29 am to stout
Doesn't the fact we deported, etc many illegals play a role in this?
If the opposite a few years ago was argued that so many illegals here are ultimately driving up costs, etc. it stands to reason that the fact they're gone will decrease the costs.
If the opposite a few years ago was argued that so many illegals here are ultimately driving up costs, etc. it stands to reason that the fact they're gone will decrease the costs.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:31 am to jwalk38
quote:
Treating single family homes as investments is why we are at this point now.
Partly.
The can-kicking the government has done regarding real estate has a lot to do with not wanting to tank property values. But that isn't just because individuals treat single-family homes as investments. It's because the entire housing market, from household wealth to lending and the broader economy, is heavily dependent on those values staying elevated.
No one wants a crash on their watch so every administration punts to the next through creative strategy to prop up values.
People forget that 2008 was literally 30 years in the making due to bad policy from one admin to the next.
RE is a slow burn. Even prior to 2008 those of us in RE knew a correction was inevtible. Very few people called the timing and even fewer expected a full on meltdown, though.
We are 18 years removed from 2008 with more new bad policy that we are dealing with now.
IMO we have abused forberance programs as an overcorrection out of 2008 fears and those programs took away a natural part of the market cycle as forclosures have decreased YoY since 2010. Some of that naturally happening makes sense considering the sheer volume of foreclosures we had but at some point that should/would have hit a plateau had it not been for foreberance programs.
The VA currently has the most aggresive forberance program and it is nearly impossible to foreclose on a VA loan which means it is very expensive to do so for lenders. The lenders will get their money back eventually from the VA if the property meets conveyance standards but its still ridiculous to have such a strangle on natural market cycles.
Time will tell how bad Gov intervention through forberance truly is but keep in mind the Gov messes up every industry they touch.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:33 am to East Coast Band
quote:
Doesn't the fact we deported, etc many illegals play a role in this?
If the opposite a few years ago was argued that so many illegals here are ultimately driving up costs, etc. it stands to reason that the fact they're gone will decrease the costs.
Deportations have more to do with rental prices
In the grand scheme of things, the amount of people deported thus far are almost insifigiant to the RE market. Basically a rounding error.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:33 am to stout
This is a topical thread for me actually, because instead of buying a new house (and losing our 3% rate), we're going to renovate a couple of rooms and add on to our kitchen.
I feel like I hear a lot of people doing this. Are contractors that do things like this doing well right now? We talked to a bunch of companies for quotes and they're all slammed and can't get to us for 6+ months at least.
I feel like I hear a lot of people doing this. Are contractors that do things like this doing well right now? We talked to a bunch of companies for quotes and they're all slammed and can't get to us for 6+ months at least.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:34 am to stout
quote:.
The can-kicking the government has done regarding real estate has a lot to do with not wanting to tank property values. But that isn't just because individuals treat single-family homes as investments. It's because the entire housing market, from household wealth to lending and the broader economy, is heavily dependent on those values staying elevated.
No one wants a crash on their watch so every administration punts to the next through creative strategy to prop up values
This is a huge black mark on Trump’s presidency. He strong armed the Fed and everyone else to keep rates artificially low to protect himself and make himself look good during his first time while anyone with an ounce of sense knew the Piper would have to be paid at some point.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:36 am to CatfishJohn
quote:
This is a topical thread for me actually, because instead of buying a new house (and losing our 3% rate), we're going to renovate a couple of rooms and add on to our kitchen.
Historically, remodeling is very typical in a market like this.
This time around, though, the data shows people aren't even remodeling. At least not at the rate they typically would in any other market correction. Inflation, HELOC rates, and labor rates have a lot to do with supressing that part.
ETA: If you read the latest earnings calls from Home Depot and Lowe's they both allude to this being an issue.
This post was edited on 10/22/26 at 10:45 am
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:38 am to stout
If you have a 2.6% mortgage then you aren't motivated to sell. If you were to sell you have a number that it would take. This is why i think things aren't moving for the ones who need something out of it.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:40 am to Mingo Was His NameO
Houses are like cars today. The builders responded to buyers demands more beads and baubles. You can barely find a bare bones work truck with a four speed v6 and vinyl seats with rubber mats.
We need to go back to true “starter” houses. Not everyone can afford a Lexus/BMW just because the monthly payments are “affordable” because you financed for 84 months.
We need to go back to true “starter” houses. Not everyone can afford a Lexus/BMW just because the monthly payments are “affordable” because you financed for 84 months.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:41 am to Paul Allen
quote:
Which is ideal for a family of three. So many families of three are in 2400 square foot homes and larger. It makes no sense.
Bro what? I just moved out of a 1200sqft condo and I was out of space with just my shite
Now I'm in 3300sqft by myself lmao
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:41 am to stout
I wonder how geography plays in to that. A friend of mine who is an agent in east Texas did more than $6MM in Q3 alone. She’s strung together several really good quarters.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:42 am to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
He strong armed the Fed and everyone else to keep rates artificially low to protect himself and make himself look good during his first time while anyone with an ounce of sense knew the Piper would have to be paid at some point.
I agree Trump was par for the course regarding RE but IMO a correction was well on it's way had it not been for Covid. The sheer number of people Covid bailed out both through the buying fenzy, hault on foreclosures, and the never ending abuse of expanded forberance programs is fascinating.
I really can't wait until in 10-15-20 years or so when we look back on this correction the same as we do 2008 now and study it all people realize just how much Covid not only bailed people out but also completely F'd the market for years and/or decades.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:42 am to Mahootney
quote:
A home is only worth what someone is willing to pay (and at a mortgage and interest rate they can afford).
I could never get my ex-wife to understand this. It took 9 months to sell the house after we split, mainly because she wanted too much for it.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:44 am to stout
quote:
I agree Trump was par for the course regarding RE but IMO a correction was well on it's way had it not been for Covid. The sheer number of people Covid bailed out both through the buying fenzy, hault on foreclosures, and the never ending abuse of expanded forberance programs is fascinating.
Yes, but that shite is on Trump too (and some state politicians in liberal states to be fair). The economy was open for business after the first like 60-90 days of COVID. Economy was bumping and everyone was making record profits, but we still sent out stimulus checks and allowed for bullshite PPP and gave grants and stopped student loan payments, etc, etc.
All that was for a quick win, and in reality made zero financial sense
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:46 am to Henry Jones Jr
quote:
People will eventually get tired of waiting and either keep renting or bite the bullet and buy.
Renting has become much more of an optimal choice in the current market
Buying with inflated prices at inflated rates is a recipe for disaster and completely irrational.
*ETA: insurance and tax rates will make those higher prices unpalatable
This post was edited on 10/22/26 at 10:47 am
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:46 am to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:
I wonder how geography plays in to that. A friend of mine who is an agent in east Texas did more than $6MM in Q3 alone. She’s strung together several really good quarters.
Plays a massive role in it. There are some markets that are still booming.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:46 am to danilo
quote:
Under contract right now ….. but inspections aren’t looking good
There are few people on the planet that are more clueless about home/home repairs/values than a home inspector. You could be a McDonalds employee, take a few classes and a few months later be determining what the value is on a 750K home.
My last sell the home inspector could not even properly measure the square footage of my house.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:49 am to Cosmo
quote:
Sold within a month. Nothing else in neighborhood has moved because they wont budge. I didnt care. I was tired of paying utilities, insurance and taxes on it and i still made 100k selling it.
Yeah I see houses sit for long periods of time and I can do the math and know they're losing money. Realtors are trying every trick in the book to keep the "official" prices artificially high.
Utilities, insurance, mortgage payments (for 2nd homes) easily eat up that higher selling price.
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:50 am to CatfishJohn
quote:
Plays a massive role in it. There are some markets that are still booming.
Houston has been shielded from a lot of the bullshite over the past 5-8 years but it seems like it may be cracking.
I've been casually looking over the past 3 months and over the past 2-3 weeks, the reductions have been flooding in. I'm getting pinged by HAR/Zillow non stop w/ "50k price reduction on this house you viewed, 60k here, etc..."
Posted on 10/22/26 at 10:50 am to stout
I wonder how much is a shift in mentality of the population.
I’m Gen X and all I’ve ever heard growing up is part of the American Dream is owning property and building equity, etc.
If you watch YT or other things now, the mentality for kids seems to be, rent, invest, and spend money on things and experiences.
I’m Gen X and all I’ve ever heard growing up is part of the American Dream is owning property and building equity, etc.
If you watch YT or other things now, the mentality for kids seems to be, rent, invest, and spend money on things and experiences.
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