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re: Odds on Curiel returning next year?

Posted on 4/22/26 at 12:02 pm to
Posted by ProjectP2294
West St. Louis County
Member since May 2007
77948 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 12:02 pm to
Arm strength can be improved, and it's something he would have to improve to play every day in CF.

He won't hit for enough power to be a corner guy only.
Posted by LSBoosie
Member since Jun 2020
18807 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

that no one in college baseball absent a freak like Skenes is "MLB ready."

Well yeah, there are very few people in college baseball that are MLB ready. I’m not arguing that.
quote:

That is not a determinative factor in signing or not signing a contract post draft.

When you have someone with multiple years of leverage left it can be.
quote:

They can get year round and unrestricted development in minor league ball that they will not receive in college ball. The entire purpose of minor league ball is to develop and prepare players for MLB baseball. Baseball is unlike any other sport in that regard.

Sure, but he can also still develop in college baseball for another year, and show that he is closer to being MLB ready than he was the year before, which could lead to a higher draft position and millions of dollars.

I’ve never said it wouldn’t be smart for him to leave. I was just responding to someone saying there is no benefit to him coming back for another year.
Posted by Dustpan13
Turkey Creek, Lousiana
Member since Dec 2013
201 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 12:45 pm to
That’s what the minor leagues are for! He’s gone.
Posted by sharkfhin
Water
Member since Sep 2008
6053 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 12:56 pm to
quote:

quote:
All Tigers are all gone not to mention next season is rat poison most likely. Whomever has a chance to go, is gone.


What do you mean?
unless he brings in 4/5 position studs and a starter w/ 2/3 good relievers next season, will be worse. We have 1 semi legit returnee and thats Bide(some may even question him beings his defense still needs work) and 2 starters on the mound returning. What kid is gonna return w/ that in mind when he has a chance to leave for mlb. I know this sounds bad but Jay is gonna have to do some houdini shite to get us back on track next season. Its gonna take 2 yrs imo. No way any of them return w/ a chance for mlb with this possibilty looming.
This post was edited on 4/22/26 at 1:21 pm
Posted by lsufball19
Franklin, TN
Member since Sep 2008
73255 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 1:03 pm to
quote:

When you have someone with multiple years of leverage left it can be.

It can be, but he could also have a bad junior year or get hurt. Chances are if he's a 1st round pick he's going to sign, MLB ready or not. Financially it doesn't make a ton of sense, weighing the pros and cons, not to sign in that situation. It's just business. Whether he is MLB ready or not right now is irrelevant. His age is also going to be a factor, which is why he's eligible to be drafted in the first place. I'm just saying whether or not he's "MLB ready" is not really a factor in all of this.
quote:

but he can also still develop in college baseball for another year, and show that he is closer to being MLB ready than he was the year before, which could lead to a higher draft position and millions of dollars.

And he could also come back and drop. Let's say he comes back and is the exact same hitter he's been (no plus power), why exactly would he move up? He may even move down in that scenario because they probably have questions whether he will ever develop power. Sometimes a bird in the hand is better than two in the bush

I honestly don't know why we play this game with players every year when none of them ever turn down the money.
This post was edited on 4/22/26 at 1:06 pm
Posted by Sissidog02
Member since Jan 2020
7377 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 1:13 pm to
.00009%
Yes I’m saying there’s NO chance!
This post was edited on 4/22/26 at 1:15 pm
Posted by LSBoosie
Member since Jun 2020
18807 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 2:06 pm to
I’m not sure what you think I’m trying to say. Again, all I was doing is responding to someone that basically said there is no reason for him to come back. I never said it was likely or even a smart move.
quote:

I honestly don't know why we play this game with players every year when none of them ever turn down the money.

I mean we have certainly had players turn down money to play at LSU. See William Schmidt.
Posted by moneyg
Member since Jun 2006
62912 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

I think if he goes in the first round, there’s less than a 1% chance he comes back.

However, if he slips into the 2nd or even 3rd, being that he’s a draft eligible sophomore, I could see him coming back as a junior


Where he’s drafted is irrelevant because if he’s drafted in the top 10 rounds, that means a team has agreed to his terms.
Posted by ProjectP2294
West St. Louis County
Member since May 2007
77948 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 4:04 pm to
quote:

Where he’s drafted is irrelevant because if he’s drafted in the top 10 rounds, that means a team has agreed to his terms.


Unless he's drafted by the Pirates, who seem to be the last remaining team to draft guys without handshake deals in place in the first few rounds.

But it's like .3% of guys drafted in the first 10 rounds that don't sign, since the advent of the bonus pools. Nearly all of those occur in the rounds where the pick will be given again the next year. Which is why the Pirates still risk it.
Posted by mdomingue
Lafayette, LA
Member since Nov 2010
47048 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 7:08 pm to
quote:

I think he’d have a tough time going in the 20’s with no loud tool, mingy. Baseball projections are the least scientific of any of the big 3 sports. They are hardly ever right


I don’t disagree but baseball is also the least predictable in general when it comes to the draft.
Posted by Tigrdynasty
19th hole
Member since Jun 2018
3305 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 7:28 pm to
He'll develop to the extent his mind, body and health allow him to develop. Makes no difference whether it's in college or pro ball. How quickly one can arrive in AAA is most important, regardless to which path he takes
Posted by nicholastiger
Member since Jan 2004
55815 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 7:31 pm to
Slight chance, probably less than 15%
He’s in a great bargaining position
As long as he goes by 5th round he will likely get his #
It’s rare that a player drafted rounds 1-5 is not signing
Will see how aggressive mlb is with this class
Looking like lsu has premium draft risks in high school class
Posted by Lester Earl
3rd Ward
Member since Nov 2003
290744 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 7:41 pm to
quote:

I don’t disagree but baseball is also the least predictable in general when it comes to the draft.



look at where some of these SEC OF'er were drafted last year:

27. Jace Laviolette ($3.3)
41. Charles Davalan ($2.3)
49. Ethan Petry ($1.9)
74. Max Belyeu ($1.1)


I don't think he is a better prospect than any of these guys. OF'ers as a whole have become devalued at the top of the draft, esp college guys.

I do think he could significantly help his stock if he were to come back and show more power.
Posted by NFLSU
Screwston, Texas
Member since Oct 2014
20398 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 7:44 pm to
Kid won’t sniff the majors.

He’s a little bit bigger Antoine Duplantis.

He just hits fewer HRs and strikes out a lot more.
Posted by HighRoller
Baton Rouge
Member since Nov 2011
5681 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 7:58 pm to
quote:

Kid won’t sniff the majors


Thanks for your worthless evaluation. I’m sure you know better than the team that will select him in the first round.
Posted by NFLSU
Screwston, Texas
Member since Oct 2014
20398 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 8:11 pm to
“First round picks are guaranteed a spot in the MLB!”

Curiel couldn’t hold Jared Mitchell’s jock and even he never took an AB in the MLB after being a 1st round pick.

I’m sure you waive your hands back and forth when Curiel’s lame arse walk-up song comes on before he watches strike 3 go right down the pipe.

Posted by Tiger in Omaha
Omaha
Member since Mar 2019
5915 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 10:53 pm to
NIL-L
Posted by BrohemAlem11
Ratchet City, LA
Member since Oct 2014
13781 posts
Posted on 4/22/26 at 11:18 pm to
All hes missing is power....the rest of his game is ELITE. I think it all hinges on who other teams weight that.
Posted by PerryWinkleBlue
Member since Apr 2025
528 posts
Posted on 4/23/26 at 6:47 am to
Based off his current arc, zero.

Current projection: 9 to braves

9. Braves: $6,675,300

I doubt there is anything he could do, short of some weird miracle and/or dramatic increase in dbol/test, that would elevate his status.

Too much to lose, nothing to gain
Posted by Dtiger19
Member since Dec 2007
830 posts
Posted on 4/23/26 at 9:19 am to
quote:

the rest of his game is ELITE.

He doesn’t have an ELITE arm or ELITE speed.
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