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re: Negative vs. Positive vs. Realistic
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:01 am to ell_13
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:01 am to ell_13
Negative - 7-5
Realistic - 9-3
Positive - 10-2
Past results are generally a good indicator of future results. LSU's ranking in the preseason poll has generally been a pretty good indicator of where they ultimately finish the regular season (using the Coaches' poll for reference)
2005 - (Preseason) #6, (end of reg season)#3
2006 - (Preseason) #9, (end of reg season)#5
2007 - (Preseason) #2, (end of reg season)#2
2008 - (Preseason) #6, (end of reg season)NR
2009 - (Preseason) #9, (end of reg season)#14
2010 - (Preseason) #16, (end of reg season)#12
2011 - (Preseason) #4, (end of reg season)#1
2012 - (Preseason) #1, (end of reg season)#6
2013 - (Preseason) #13, (end of reg season)#14
2014 - (Preseason) #13, (end of reg season)#24
There really hasn't been a single year in Miles' tenure where LSU greatly exceeded preseason expectations. What past history tells me is that when LSU has a really good team, it is generally known from the outset. Under Miles, every year LSU finished in the top 10 they were ranked in the top 10 to start the season. Of course you could make the argument that may be because the preseason rankings develop some sort of "self fulfilling prophecy" in the minds of the voters.
Looking at this year, LSU is starting ranked #13. 10 years of prior history indicates that they will most likely finish the regular season ranked somewhere between #10-#20. IMO, that puts their final record around 8-4 or 9-3
Realistic - 9-3
Positive - 10-2
Past results are generally a good indicator of future results. LSU's ranking in the preseason poll has generally been a pretty good indicator of where they ultimately finish the regular season (using the Coaches' poll for reference)
2005 - (Preseason) #6, (end of reg season)#3
2006 - (Preseason) #9, (end of reg season)#5
2007 - (Preseason) #2, (end of reg season)#2
2008 - (Preseason) #6, (end of reg season)NR
2009 - (Preseason) #9, (end of reg season)#14
2010 - (Preseason) #16, (end of reg season)#12
2011 - (Preseason) #4, (end of reg season)#1
2012 - (Preseason) #1, (end of reg season)#6
2013 - (Preseason) #13, (end of reg season)#14
2014 - (Preseason) #13, (end of reg season)#24
There really hasn't been a single year in Miles' tenure where LSU greatly exceeded preseason expectations. What past history tells me is that when LSU has a really good team, it is generally known from the outset. Under Miles, every year LSU finished in the top 10 they were ranked in the top 10 to start the season. Of course you could make the argument that may be because the preseason rankings develop some sort of "self fulfilling prophecy" in the minds of the voters.
Looking at this year, LSU is starting ranked #13. 10 years of prior history indicates that they will most likely finish the regular season ranked somewhere between #10-#20. IMO, that puts their final record around 8-4 or 9-3
1
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:48 am to dukke v
quote:
Why???Crybaby..... Cause he didn't pick LSU to go 12-0???? This place was better when your homer arse wasn't posting...........
Suck a dick, PEEJ
Posted on 8/21/15 at 12:17 pm to dukke v
quote:And if they ever did, there's no guarantee that they'd win a NC.
No team in the SEC is going 12-0....
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:09 pm to ell_13
I think realistic has to be a spread
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:11 pm to SammyTiger
I think they're all a spread. I picked the "bottom" for each record. Although I think 10 wins is pushing realistic.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:35 pm to ell_13
Realistic is 9-3. Anything worse is negative and anything better is optimistic.
Because we're spoiled LSU fans, we will be disappointed in 9-3 even if it is realistic.
Because we're spoiled LSU fans, we will be disappointed in 9-3 even if it is realistic.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:40 pm to ell_13
Negative: 9-3
Positive: 12-0
Realistic: 11-1
Positive: 12-0
Realistic: 11-1
Posted on 8/21/15 at 1:50 pm to ell_13
Positive: Naming the Starter
Negative: Not naming the Starter
Realistic: Gonna be another long year
Negative: Not naming the Starter
Realistic: Gonna be another long year
Posted on 8/21/15 at 4:17 pm to ell_13
quote:
Realistic: 8-4
Let me make sure I understand this.
Last year LSU went 8-4, with a sophomore qb who had 1 career start, and a tf qb with no experience. They had the following impact true freshmen who got significantly better as the year went on: Fournette, Dupre, Williams, Quinn, Godcheaux, Adams, among others, along with Beckwith taking over during the season making a huge difference. In addition, they have 15/16 returning starters this year, and a true sophomore QB who appears to have had a lightbulb click on......they also have several tf coming in this year that will likely boost and already strong team......yet you don't think this team will improve? OK
Posted on 8/21/15 at 4:32 pm to Tigerinthehollow
quote:
Let me make sure I understand this.
You realize he is just saying 8-4 to get to you right??????
Posted on 8/21/15 at 4:47 pm to ell_13
quote:
I think they're all a spread. I picked the "bottom" for each record. Although I think 10 wins is pushing realistic.
ok i can see 8-4 being a realistic bottom.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 4:59 pm to Tigerinthehollow
This team could improve on the field but we could still go 8-4. It's not like all the other teams we play will get worse or stay the same.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 8:42 pm to chilge1
quote:I'll go with this. I think we win the same games as last year, and 2 of the losses. If pressed on which two, figure we take Miss State and Arkansas.
Negative: 8-4
Positive: 12-0
Realistic: 10-2
Honestly- we return almost our entire team, with more experience. Most of our opponents lose a lot more.
If Brandon Harris makes the natural progression he should and become comfortable running the offense, 2 losses might be a disappointment.
Posted on 8/21/15 at 11:25 pm to Alt26
quote:
2008 - (Preseason) #6, (end of reg season)NR
Man that season hurt. Maybe it was because I was a student then, but the fall from glory in 1998 actually seemed to hurt more. 2008 doomed by forcing a young JL into the starting QB role before he was ready and Crowton not dialing back the offense to accommodate that fact. 1998 doomed by Lou Tepper's idiotic "drop linebacker" scheme on defense with Thomas Dunson somehow chosen to be the linchpin of the defense.
Posted on 10/31/15 at 3:40 pm to ell_13
idiot
Posted on 10/31/15 at 3:45 pm to beauchristopher
You forgot to bump my followup thread.
Posted on 10/31/15 at 3:49 pm to ell_13
I actually didn't mean to bump this just yet. Hit submit too fast. LOL. I didn't actually think it would even bump. There's still time for you though..
Any ways since it's already bumped.
Already beat 3 of those. Just need to beat two more on there.
But seriously, why on earth would a&m even be a consideration? LSU owns a&m man.. And that game is at home.. They cannot stop the run.. they never have been able to.. LSU will just run all over them..
Any ways since it's already bumped.
Already beat 3 of those. Just need to beat two more on there.
But seriously, why on earth would a&m even be a consideration? LSU owns a&m man.. And that game is at home.. They cannot stop the run.. they never have been able to.. LSU will just run all over them..
This post was edited on 10/31/15 at 3:53 pm
Posted on 10/31/15 at 3:50 pm to ell_13
quote:
I don't think it's realistic to think Les or the QBs suddenly turn into positives on this team.
Posted on 10/31/15 at 3:51 pm to beauchristopher
We aren't going to beat A&M every game for the rest of time. Just thought this might be the year. Didn't expect their defense to get even WORSE! But this was about predictions... and of course they're never perfect.
What's interesting is that with the mcneese cancellation, We lose a win. So Many in this thread were thinking an 8-3 season was realistic. And it still is. Definitely not as likely anymore though.
What's interesting is that with the mcneese cancellation, We lose a win. So Many in this thread were thinking an 8-3 season was realistic. And it still is. Definitely not as likely anymore though.
Posted on 10/31/15 at 3:53 pm to chilge1
Was it sudden? I'd argue it wasn't. We didn't need a QB for the first 4 games. So we had the luxury to VERY slowly work him into a game plan. Nothing sudden about that.
Harris has done exactly what he's been asked to do though. And it's been great to watch.
Harris has done exactly what he's been asked to do though. And it's been great to watch.
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