re: McMahon may prove to be a solid hire.

Most of the basketball and football "fans" on this site have low IQ's and high emotional biases because "their" coach was fired. Both coaches came into rebuilds but one came to an established championship program and had national name recognition already. Both are doing a great job. Doesn't mean there hasn't been a hiccup here or there but they said Mcmahon couldn't recruit. Well he is just like BK is. I expect both programs to be on solid ground and competing for championships but I don't care if it takes 4 years or 5 years. This 3 yr crap can hit the road. As long as they bring the programs back to where they were or better I'm ok with the time it takes as long as they are improving along the way.

Year 1 - 14-19
Year 2 - 17-16

I would say just keep improving the record and that’s a win in my book. If we get to 19-13 or so and maybe squeak into the tourney, I’d be happy.

I think everyone here would take Bruce Pearl as a coach. His first three seasons of building something in Auburn was 15-20, 11-20, and 18-14. In year 4 he broke through to the tournament and they have been mostly relevant ever since.

It takes time to build a winning culture that has some momentum behind it.

Nate Oats went 15-16 in his first season, and made the tournament his second season, but he also inherited a program with 5 straight winning record seasons.

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Same doesn't apply to Kelly I guess

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You naturally know the butt pirate is going to chime in with his usual bullshite.

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I think everyone here would take Bruce Pearl as a coach. His first three seasons of building something in Auburn was 15-20, 11-20, and 18-14. In year 4 he broke through to the tournament and they have been mostly relevant ever since.

It takes time to build a winning culture that has some momentum behind it.

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It's not an apples to apples comparison. This is a different era of college basketball. The transfer rules have completely changed the landscape. Teams are not built the same today as they were when Pearl took the Auburn job in 14-15. At that time, when a new HC came into a struggling program the only way to immediately overhaul the roster was through HS and JUCO recruiting. I'm not even sure grad transfers were immediately eligible then. That took time.

That is not the case today. The double-edged sword of the transfer rules means that when a coaching change is made the school is almost assuredly going to lose the majority of its roster. That's was something unheard of in the spring of 2022 (when Wade was fired). But most fans here just focused on LSU and believed (still believe) it was unique to LSU. It wasn't. LSU lost 10 players from the 21-22 roster. But they were far from the only major program that year to lose the majority of their roster after a coaching change. Mississippi St lost 8; Florida lost 7; Kansas St. lost 11, Georgia lost 8; Missouri lost 9; South Carolina lost 9. The flip-side is the transfer rules allow coaches to immediately rebuild a roster...one that can allow immediate success. The thinking that it MUST to take time to build a winning program is antiquated.

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Nate Oats went 15-16 in his first season, and made the tournament his second season, but he also inherited a program with 5 straight winning record seasons.

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This kind of goes against your position that it takes time to build a winning culture. Oats didn't just "make the NCAA Tournament" in his second season. He won the SEC with a 16-2 record and was a #2 seed. Alabama hasn't missed the NCAAT since. So it took him exactly 2 seasons. This was before the transfer era. (There is another former SEC coach who won the SEC in year 2 with a 16-2 record and would have made the NCAA Tournament every year after were the 2020 tournament not canceled). The point is basketball is the easiest of all sports to orchestrate a quick turnaround because of the small roster size. It only takes a few players to make a huge difference. The right HC makes ALL the difference. Alabama, historically, was not a better program than LSU before Oats.

McMahon's record is what it is. He's 31-35 (11-25) in two seasons. That's not good no matter how anyone tries to spin it. However, what he has seemed to do well is recruit HS players AND retain his HS recruits in an era where that has become tougher to do. The hope is that this year those efforts will start to bear fruit. But until that happens it's not unreasonable to have doubts. Particularly when you've seen many other programs have more immediate turnarounds.

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Agreed and we have this expectation like LSU is some basketball power. We aren't a national brand basketball wise. .

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No one has such high expectations. But relative to the rest of the SEC LSU has historically been one of the better programs. Only Kentucky, Florida and Arkansas have more Final Four appearances than LSU (the majority of Arkansas came when they were in the SWC). Of the members of the 12 team SEC (prior to 2012), only Kentucky, Tennessee, Arkansas have more NCAA Tournament appearances.

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Louisiana is one of the worst states in the nation for recruiting HS basketball players.

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The data is a couple of years old, but at that time Louisiana was ranked 15 out of 50 in number of NBA players born in Louisiana. Historically, Louisiana has produced more pro players, per capita, than all but two "states" Mississippi and Washington D.C. Louisiana is 5th behind only New York, California, Pennsylvania, and Illinois in number of pro basketball HOFer. To the contrary, Louisiana has generally produced WELL above average basketball talent for such a low population state.

LINK

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For example I'm not sure there is a kid in the upcoming class in Louisiana that can play for LSU.

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Chris Cenac, from New Orleans, is a consensus 5 star, top 10 nationally, prospect in the 2025 class.

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no one (before the win over Arkansas) thought we'd be good in Year 1

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This is revisionist history. We were picked as a tourney bubble team and finish middle of the pack in the SEC in the preseason. We started the year 11-1 in non conference with a win over Wake Forest and a narrow loss to Kansas State. Then we beat Arkansas and took Kentucky to the wire. Then the wheels fell off.

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Last year, yes, people were being unrealistic pre-season, but that team was a much better product on the floor.

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Last year we had zero expectations and most thought we were in for more of the same as year 1 because the recruiting and transfers didn't seem great. We ended up improving a lot and had an OK year with a couple of nice wins.

This year we are back to having tourney bubble, middle of the pack SEC expectations. Hopefully we meet or exceed those.

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You can turn around a basketball roster in one year with the right recruiting. Apples and oranges

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You can, but you have to get lucky with the right players.

I like who he brought in from the portal and I think the 3 freshmen are going to be better than anyone he has brought in from high school.

The two guards are legit. I think this yr will actually be the turning point. If he can't get it going this yr it's just not going to happen

I just saw that Northwestern State is on LSU's schedule this year. Good lord, please don't lose that game. This board will explode if the general walks into the PMAC and hands CMM an L.

I deserve the downvotes...

Believe it when i see it. Hope ur right.

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I think its unreasonable to assume that if you are taking over a program clouded with sanctions and no one left on the roster,

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The "cloud of sanctions" has been the oft-repeated narrative, but there hasn't been any real evidence to suggest that (supposed) "cloud" actually had any effect whatsoever. In fact, just the opposite. Despite the "cloud", McMahon signed what was ranked as the No. 17 HS singing class that offseason. Ward was a 4/fringe 5 star prospect. Reed and Phillips were 4 star prospects. All had offers from major schools besides LSU. If the "cloud" was such a concern, wouldn't it stand to reason they would have chosen to go elsewhere?

Likewise, Wilkinson, Miller, and Justice Williams were all top 100 recruits in their respective signing classes. They were still early in their careers when Wade was fired. There were several major programs that recruited them as prospects along with LSU, and there were other major schools who would have taken them as transfers at that time. Given the fact the staff that recruited them was just fired it stands to reason they would have left LSU if they were truly concerned about the "cloud". They stayed

KJ Williams was generally considered a top 10 available player in the transfer portal. Yes, there was a natural tie with McMahon. But many other major programs, programs without a "cloud" hanging over them would have gladly taken him. Given that was going to be his only year of major conf. basketball if he were truly concerned about the "cloud" he would have gone elsewhere. Yet, he came to LSU. In total, that is 7 players, over 1/2 the allotted scholarship amount, that chose to attend LSU despite the "cloud". In other words, the "cloud" is an excuse that had no actual basis in substance.

Since the transfer rules have changed we've seen multiple coaches, and multiple schools, have immediate success despite having to completely rebuild the roster with only 2, 3, 4, 5 returning players. That's NOT to say it is the norm or that should be the expectation. But it shows it's not unrealistic for that to occur. Sustainability of that success is a different story and, hopefully, that is where McMahon's work in retaining his HS signing classes will start to produce results this year.

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If a coach is showing that the program is trending in the right direction, keep him. If it starts going the other way, find a replacement. I think its going in the right direction, and even if this season ends without a NCAA tournament birth, it could still be trending in the right direction. The cycle of hiring and firing coaches frequently, although sometimes necessary, is not a good long-term strategy.

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I don't think Woodward wants to fire McMahon now, and I don't think internally the bar for him to get year 4 is particularly high this year. However, at some point he, and every other major conf. coach has to prove they can have sustained success in this world of ever changing rosters. No coach is immune to that. Oats himself is averaging about 8 new players a year at Alabama. Hopefully this is the season McMahon gains his foothold on success.