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BigerTait
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | Auburn |
| Biography: | |
| Interests: | |
| Occupation: | |
| Number of Posts: | 176 |
| Registered on: | 12/4/2010 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
Recent Posts
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re: Jalen Reed out for year with torn Achilles
Posted by BigerTait on 12/2/25 at 3:55 pm to Yippie_Ky_yae
It is common for one leg injury to eventually lead to another injury on the other leg, as you are still building that repaired leg’s muscle and confidence back up while putting more weight and strain on the other leg to compensate.
Source: three ACL tears myself - right, left, right - all sports related.
Sucks for the dude. It did seem like his injury last year was a significant inflection point for the team last year. I wonder if he will try to come back next year. Achilles is usually a 1 year recovery, although somehow Aaron Rodger’s was back practicing after 3 months.
Source: three ACL tears myself - right, left, right - all sports related.
Sucks for the dude. It did seem like his injury last year was a significant inflection point for the team last year. I wonder if he will try to come back next year. Achilles is usually a 1 year recovery, although somehow Aaron Rodger’s was back practicing after 3 months.
0
Just the first 7 games of each season. I would imagine most of those stats got worse after going through the SEC schedule.
I was just trying to compare apples to apples at this point in the season to see if/where improvement might have occurred.
I’ll work on a similar spreadsheet for the entire season, maybe with different splits (OOC vs IC, home vs away, etc).
I was just trying to compare apples to apples at this point in the season to see if/where improvement might have occurred.
I’ll work on a similar spreadsheet for the entire season, maybe with different splits (OOC vs IC, home vs away, etc).
Basketball Statistics Thru 7 Games Compared to Past 3 Years
Posted by BigerTait on 12/2/25 at 2:33 am
The basketball team looks halfway decent this year based on the eye test, but I wanted to dig into the stats a little bit to see how they compared to other MM teams at this point in this season (7 games). So here are the opponents and stats thru 7 games for the past 4 seasons. Note: The KenPom Net rankings of past seasons are full season, not at the time.
Edited: These rankings are KenPom Net, not NCAA NET.
My takeaways:
1. Very weak schedule this season. The average KenPom Net rankings say the schedule so far is inline with the 22-23 and 24-25 seasons, but they haven't played anyone under 100 Net so far. 23-24 was actually a pretty tough non-conference schedule to start the season with 4 teams that finished in the top 80 Net. BC (122), TTU (28), and SMU (42) coming up will be very telling.
2. Offense appears to be actually good, even with the easier schedule. Points per possession and most shooting categories are way up. We're getting to the FT line more and making them. Offensive rebounding looks better. But most importantly, turnovers are way down and assists are way up. Having a real point guard is so important.
3. Defense, on the other hand, looks pretty average compared to previous seasons. The only bright spot is it looks like they have cleaned up the boards better this season. The past few seasons were maddening watching other teams get 2, 3, or even 4 shots in a single possession. Steals are low and the other teams have a positive A/T ratio on average, which is not good at this point in the season against poor competition. Maybe there has been a philosophy change here - focusing more on playing fundamental defense instead of getting steals, but steals usually lead to easy baskets on the other end. I guess we'll see.
Watching the past few seasons it felt like the biggest areas for improvement were cleaning up the turnovers, defending the 3, and locking down the defensive boards - which are less skill-based and more effort/attitude in my opinion. As someone who has played a lot of basketball in my life, it's been hard to watch. I live and work in Auburn, and it's fun for the city and campus having a competitive basketball team to follow. I wish that for LSU. Even if MM has a decent season and saves his job, it would be nice to get a new coach to bring some energy and life back into the program like Bruce Pearl was able to do here.
I might compare the past three full seasons in the same way and track this season along with them, or maybe do SEC only comparisons for different vantage points. Open to suggestions.
:geauxtigers:
Edited: These rankings are KenPom Net, not NCAA NET.
My takeaways:
1. Very weak schedule this season. The average KenPom Net rankings say the schedule so far is inline with the 22-23 and 24-25 seasons, but they haven't played anyone under 100 Net so far. 23-24 was actually a pretty tough non-conference schedule to start the season with 4 teams that finished in the top 80 Net. BC (122), TTU (28), and SMU (42) coming up will be very telling.
2. Offense appears to be actually good, even with the easier schedule. Points per possession and most shooting categories are way up. We're getting to the FT line more and making them. Offensive rebounding looks better. But most importantly, turnovers are way down and assists are way up. Having a real point guard is so important.
3. Defense, on the other hand, looks pretty average compared to previous seasons. The only bright spot is it looks like they have cleaned up the boards better this season. The past few seasons were maddening watching other teams get 2, 3, or even 4 shots in a single possession. Steals are low and the other teams have a positive A/T ratio on average, which is not good at this point in the season against poor competition. Maybe there has been a philosophy change here - focusing more on playing fundamental defense instead of getting steals, but steals usually lead to easy baskets on the other end. I guess we'll see.
Watching the past few seasons it felt like the biggest areas for improvement were cleaning up the turnovers, defending the 3, and locking down the defensive boards - which are less skill-based and more effort/attitude in my opinion. As someone who has played a lot of basketball in my life, it's been hard to watch. I live and work in Auburn, and it's fun for the city and campus having a competitive basketball team to follow. I wish that for LSU. Even if MM has a decent season and saves his job, it would be nice to get a new coach to bring some energy and life back into the program like Bruce Pearl was able to do here.
I might compare the past three full seasons in the same way and track this season along with them, or maybe do SEC only comparisons for different vantage points. Open to suggestions.
:geauxtigers:
I think you have good, valid points. I don't think any new coach situations are apples to apples. They are all different situations in a variety of ways. I would say McMahon's situation was pretty far on the "difficult" end of the spectrum.
I think its unreasonable to assume that if you are taking over a program clouded with sanctions and no one left on the roster, that you will be making the tournament within two years. Nate Oats took over a middle of the pack program, but a program that had a winning record for 5 straight years (and no NCAA issues that I can remember), so I was pointing out that his situation was better from day1 than McMahon's, hence a quicker turnaround isn't surprising. I also think Nate Oats, as much as I don't like the guy, is a phenomenal coach.
Bruce Pearl took over a losing culture program and turned it around over 4 years. Yes, he didn't have the same recruiting and transfer rules as there are now, and maybe he could have turned them into a winning program quicker if the situation was similar to todays. But realistically McMahon could do that same job in 3 years if they get to the tournament this year.
When Wade was fired and the entire team bolted, if you told me that McMahon would get us to the NIT in year 2 and the NCAA tourney in year 3 I would've been happy. I think asking for more than that would have been unrealistic expectations. Yes there may be a few examples of coaches doing that (all with different situations), but there are way more examples of coaches not succeeding like that.
This year, if I had expectations, they would be:
> keep building a winning culture and doing the right things
> improve in a few fundamental areas (rebounding, turnovers, shooting %)
> keep the recruiting momentum
If those three things happen, I would say it's a success and more wins and tournament appearances will be the result. I don't think McMahon has the personality of a Bruce Pearl, and I think personality matters when it comes to lobbying support from your students and fans, to recruiting, and generally building positive program momentum.
If a coach is showing that the program is trending in the right direction, keep him. If it starts going the other way, find a replacement. I think its going in the right direction, and even if this season ends without a NCAA tournament birth, it could still be trending in the right direction. The cycle of hiring and firing coaches frequently, although sometimes necessary, is not a good long-term strategy.
So we will see. Hopefully this season is better than the last, because I love when LSU basketball is relevant, and being a part of March Madness is a lot of fun.
I think its unreasonable to assume that if you are taking over a program clouded with sanctions and no one left on the roster, that you will be making the tournament within two years. Nate Oats took over a middle of the pack program, but a program that had a winning record for 5 straight years (and no NCAA issues that I can remember), so I was pointing out that his situation was better from day1 than McMahon's, hence a quicker turnaround isn't surprising. I also think Nate Oats, as much as I don't like the guy, is a phenomenal coach.
Bruce Pearl took over a losing culture program and turned it around over 4 years. Yes, he didn't have the same recruiting and transfer rules as there are now, and maybe he could have turned them into a winning program quicker if the situation was similar to todays. But realistically McMahon could do that same job in 3 years if they get to the tournament this year.
When Wade was fired and the entire team bolted, if you told me that McMahon would get us to the NIT in year 2 and the NCAA tourney in year 3 I would've been happy. I think asking for more than that would have been unrealistic expectations. Yes there may be a few examples of coaches doing that (all with different situations), but there are way more examples of coaches not succeeding like that.
This year, if I had expectations, they would be:
> keep building a winning culture and doing the right things
> improve in a few fundamental areas (rebounding, turnovers, shooting %)
> keep the recruiting momentum
If those three things happen, I would say it's a success and more wins and tournament appearances will be the result. I don't think McMahon has the personality of a Bruce Pearl, and I think personality matters when it comes to lobbying support from your students and fans, to recruiting, and generally building positive program momentum.
If a coach is showing that the program is trending in the right direction, keep him. If it starts going the other way, find a replacement. I think its going in the right direction, and even if this season ends without a NCAA tournament birth, it could still be trending in the right direction. The cycle of hiring and firing coaches frequently, although sometimes necessary, is not a good long-term strategy.
So we will see. Hopefully this season is better than the last, because I love when LSU basketball is relevant, and being a part of March Madness is a lot of fun.
re: McMahon may prove to be a solid hire.
Posted by BigerTait on 10/2/24 at 9:15 am to Safety Blitz
Year 1 - 14-19
Year 2 - 17-16
I would say just keep improving the record and that’s a win in my book. If we get to 19-13 or so and maybe squeak into the tourney, I’d be happy.
I think everyone here would take Bruce Pearl as a coach. His first three seasons of building something in Auburn was 15-20, 11-20, and 18-14. In year 4 he broke through to the tournament and they have been mostly relevant ever since.
It takes time to build a winning culture that has some momentum behind it.
Nate Oats went 15-16 in his first season, and made the tournament his second season, but he also inherited a program with 5 straight winning record seasons.
Year 2 - 17-16
I would say just keep improving the record and that’s a win in my book. If we get to 19-13 or so and maybe squeak into the tourney, I’d be happy.
I think everyone here would take Bruce Pearl as a coach. His first three seasons of building something in Auburn was 15-20, 11-20, and 18-14. In year 4 he broke through to the tournament and they have been mostly relevant ever since.
It takes time to build a winning culture that has some momentum behind it.
Nate Oats went 15-16 in his first season, and made the tournament his second season, but he also inherited a program with 5 straight winning record seasons.
That’s a wildly specific rule. It was maddening in the stadium watching them convene and reconvene 6 times to discuss and getting no information.
Only made the walk off sweeter. Milam is now a legend.
Only made the walk off sweeter. Milam is now a legend.
re: At the game, what is the call?
Posted by BigerTait on 5/25/24 at 4:27 pm to Trout Bandit
A balk is a non-pitch. The runner doesn’t go to first.
If it’s a balk, how does the batter get first base?
At the game, what is the call?
Posted by BigerTait on 5/25/24 at 4:21 pm
They haven’t announced anything in the park…
quote:
So, we have you to thank for this ridiculous metric? Thanks a ton
Negative. It was a quote from the weekly article by Bill Connelly. I am not Bill Connelly.
I just think it is a way better metric than PPG or YPG, because it accounts for more factors. Its probably not perfect, but it shows that LSU's defense has been bad, but not worst in the country like people keep saying. It also shows that Bama's offense is not terrible like people keep saying.
quote:
What in the world is SP+
“What is SP+? In a single sentence, it's a tempo- and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. I created the system at Football Outsiders in 2008, and as my experience with both college football and its stats has grown, I have made quite a few tweaks to the system.
SP+ is indeed intended to be predictive and forward-facing. It is not a résumé ranking that gives credit for big wins or particularly brave scheduling -- no good predictive system is. It is simply a measure of the most sustainable and predictable aspects of football. If you're lucky or unimpressive in a win, your rating will probably fall. If you're strong and unlucky in a loss, it will probably rise.”
Weekly article written by Bill Connelly on ESPN. Right now LSU is 10 and Bama is 3. Bama jumped quite a few spots this week because of all the bad performances from the other top 10 teams.
LSU also keeps rising. Number 2 offense. After the Ole Miss and Mizzou games, LSU’s D fell all the way down to the 70s. They’ve risen back up the last couple weeks to 47.
re: Did Florida State have the formula for stopping our offense?
Posted by BigerTait on 10/23/23 at 8:59 pm to SulphursFinest
quote:
but their offense sucks
I don’t know why people keep saying this, as if their offense is similar to Auburn. Bama’s SP+ offense is rated better than both Ole Miss and Missouri, and right behind FSU. They had a stinker against USF when they were figuring out QB but they have been getting better. I don’t think it’s crazy to think they’ll reach 40 if LSU plays defense like they did against those other good offenses.
I hope you’re right though and the metrics are wrong.
re: LSU defense has played three horrible games against experienced veteran QBs
Posted by BigerTait on 10/23/23 at 5:26 pm to Islandboy777
Current SP+ rankings (Off/Def):
FSU (12th/17th) - gave up 45, scored 24
Miss St (45th/60th) - gave up 15, scored 41
Arkansas (53rd/49th) - gave up 31, scored 34
Ole Miss (17th/34th) - gave up 55, scored 49
Mizzou (18th/22nd) - gave up 39, scored 49
Auburn (59th/44th) - gave up 18, scored 48
Army (116th/92) - gave up 0, scored 62
Alabama (15th/4th) - better offense than both Mizzou and Ole Miss per this metric.
Yes Milroe doesn't look like the best QB, but their offense has gotten better as a whole and their defense is great. Their style of offense might be a better matchup for LSU's D because the QB isn't your typical accurate pocket passer, but they run the ball well and Milroe is usually throwing to wide open receivers, which is why he has put up decent numbers.
If LSU can do decent against the run, force Milroe into tight-ish throwing windows (avoid busted coverages), and prevent him from scrambling too much, then they have a good shot at getting some stops. I do think LSU has gotten slightly better on defense from a tackling and awareness perspective, but they simply lack talent and experience in key positions. The pass rush and secondary is weak, which is a bad combo for getting off the field on 3rd down.
I do think LSU will be stopped on offense more than people are expecting since Bama is easily the best D they will face all year and Saban has two weeks to prepare, but we have great weapons at every position similar to 2019. Staying ahead of schedule on 1st and 2nd down will be key.
Hopeful outcome - 38-34 Tigers
FSU (12th/17th) - gave up 45, scored 24
Miss St (45th/60th) - gave up 15, scored 41
Arkansas (53rd/49th) - gave up 31, scored 34
Ole Miss (17th/34th) - gave up 55, scored 49
Mizzou (18th/22nd) - gave up 39, scored 49
Auburn (59th/44th) - gave up 18, scored 48
Army (116th/92) - gave up 0, scored 62
Alabama (15th/4th) - better offense than both Mizzou and Ole Miss per this metric.
Yes Milroe doesn't look like the best QB, but their offense has gotten better as a whole and their defense is great. Their style of offense might be a better matchup for LSU's D because the QB isn't your typical accurate pocket passer, but they run the ball well and Milroe is usually throwing to wide open receivers, which is why he has put up decent numbers.
If LSU can do decent against the run, force Milroe into tight-ish throwing windows (avoid busted coverages), and prevent him from scrambling too much, then they have a good shot at getting some stops. I do think LSU has gotten slightly better on defense from a tackling and awareness perspective, but they simply lack talent and experience in key positions. The pass rush and secondary is weak, which is a bad combo for getting off the field on 3rd down.
I do think LSU will be stopped on offense more than people are expecting since Bama is easily the best D they will face all year and Saban has two weeks to prepare, but we have great weapons at every position similar to 2019. Staying ahead of schedule on 1st and 2nd down will be key.
Hopeful outcome - 38-34 Tigers
As someone who has torn their ACL three times, that replay didn’t look like ACL. ACLs don’t normally tear with a bent knee. ACL tears are usually a straight leg, shearing type injury. I’ve walked off the field/court after every ACL tear, so that doesn’t really mean anything. Also, ACL tears, if very clean, can be relatively pain free. If there is considerable pain, it’s because something else was damaged, like a bone hitting another bone. He clearly hurt something, but I’m hopeful it’s not season-ending.
re: I honestly don’t mind the #2 ranking right now
Posted by BigerTait on 11/28/19 at 6:07 pm to Jim Rockford
Are people worrying about the #2 ranking because they fear LSU will drop one of the next two? If LSU loses to A&M or UGA then I have a hard time believing they would beat both Ohio State and Clemson.
I do think if Utah ends up being the 4 seed, then playing Clemson instead of Utah in the first round is an actual disadvantage.
I do think beating A&M and UGA soundly will propel LSU back to the #1 seed.
I do think if Utah ends up being the 4 seed, then playing Clemson instead of Utah in the first round is an actual disadvantage.
I do think beating A&M and UGA soundly will propel LSU back to the #1 seed.
I understand the feeling everyone has, and I’m sure the players and coaches are using it as motivation.
No one will care that LSU was #2 for a period of time if it ends in a championship ring.
No one will care that LSU was #2 for a period of time if it ends in a championship ring.
re: I honestly don’t mind the #2 ranking right now
Posted by BigerTait on 11/28/19 at 5:49 pm to GEAUXTIGER23
Of course I want JB to win the Heisman, but you understand the point I’m trying to make.
Every team plays better when they feel disrespected.
Every team plays better when they feel disrespected.
I honestly don’t mind the #2 ranking right now
Posted by BigerTait on 11/28/19 at 5:35 pm
Everyone is getting all torn up about OSU jumping LSU in the polls. I kind of like it to be honest.
Rankings don’t mean shite until the final polls come out, and even then the difference between playing the three seed and four seed really doesn’t matter - still going to have to beat the next best team to win the Natty.
I hope LSU stays number 2 and Young wins the Heisman if it means that LSU will have some extra motivation to win.
Don’t forget, the two titles that LSU won recently were as the 2 seed, “underdogs” in the eyes of the pollsters, and the one we lost was as the 1 seed.
As long as LSU stays hungry, no ones gonna stop em.
Rankings don’t mean shite until the final polls come out, and even then the difference between playing the three seed and four seed really doesn’t matter - still going to have to beat the next best team to win the Natty.
I hope LSU stays number 2 and Young wins the Heisman if it means that LSU will have some extra motivation to win.
Don’t forget, the two titles that LSU won recently were as the 2 seed, “underdogs” in the eyes of the pollsters, and the one we lost was as the 1 seed.
As long as LSU stays hungry, no ones gonna stop em.
I think Mathieu would have won it the following year in 2012 if he didn’t get suspended and kept making ridiculous plays.
This year, I honestly would not mind if Young won the Heisman because I would love to see Burrow and LSU keep playing with a chip on their shoulder.
I don’t necessarily believe in the Heisman curse, but I do believe in human nature. Of all people, Burrow doesn’t seem like the type of dude that would fall into that trap though.
This year, I honestly would not mind if Young won the Heisman because I would love to see Burrow and LSU keep playing with a chip on their shoulder.
I don’t necessarily believe in the Heisman curse, but I do believe in human nature. Of all people, Burrow doesn’t seem like the type of dude that would fall into that trap though.
How much does Darius Days foul?
Posted by BigerTait on 11/22/19 at 8:27 pm
2018-2019 season:
510 minutes played, 94 fouls (8.8 fouls per 48 minutes)
Through 5 games this season:
120 minutes played, 19 fouls (7.6 fouls per 48 minutes)
In the entire NBA last season, the player with highest fouls per 48 minutes was Mason Plumlee at 7.0. (I couldn’t find this stat for college players, so I went with NBA)
He’s a good offensive player, so it’s maddening whenever he picks up cheap fouls 30 feet from the basket and has to ride the bench while the other team gets to the Bonus by the 10 minute mark each half.
TL/DR - a lot
510 minutes played, 94 fouls (8.8 fouls per 48 minutes)
Through 5 games this season:
120 minutes played, 19 fouls (7.6 fouls per 48 minutes)
In the entire NBA last season, the player with highest fouls per 48 minutes was Mason Plumlee at 7.0. (I couldn’t find this stat for college players, so I went with NBA)
He’s a good offensive player, so it’s maddening whenever he picks up cheap fouls 30 feet from the basket and has to ride the bench while the other team gets to the Bonus by the 10 minute mark each half.
TL/DR - a lot
Yeah, but that’s 108 inches. Triple digits.
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