re: Is this year a bust if we don’t make 12 team playoff?

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Hope you're right about "elite WRs" but they are a big question mark for me. Lacy looks poised for a breakout year. Everyone else is completely unproven

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i actually think our corps is extremely underrated. IMO the top 8 are insanely talented. The the top 5 have all been great to elite according to everybody who watches them. I really believe we have the deepest and most elite WR unit in the country. I was sold on CJ Daniels in spring. I was sold on Thomas in the spring. Listening to everybody has 100% sold me on Anderson and Hilton. I have been the flag bearer of the Lacy hype train since Nabors and BTJ left. That kid has been a complete monster in practice. Ive been saying Alshon Jeffrey as a great comp for Lacy.

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Year 3 for BK. He has one of the best offensive lines in the history of the program and plenty of weapons to move the ball down the field. I say yes.

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Considering the resources and recruiting pool LSU has, missing the playoffs should always be considered a bust.

Absolutely not

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a contender for the west.

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There are no divisions. We just need to finish top 2 or 3 in the league.

Any big program that doesn’t make the playoff should feel like it’s a bust year

ehh, to me it seems he has just got recruiting really going last cycle and more than likely is 2 -3 years away from being a title contending team. It could come together as there is talent on the team but Im not convinced we have the horses Uga and some others do atm.

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While I agree with the overall sentiment of your entire post, I think the SEC is going to get 4 teams in most years. There should be 4 10-2 teams or better most years. It depends on how they value a 1-loss Big 12 team to a 2-loss SEC team and/or a 2-loss Big 10 team. And I just don’t think the Big 12 is currently enough to get the benefit of the doubt. Maybe some years. I could see 4+4+2+1+1

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For shits & giggles, I looked at the final rankings each year since the inception of the CFP (excluding 2020 since a lot of teams didn’t play that year) and looked at how many teams from each conference (using the new conference alignments) would get in.

I assumed that the highest ranked team from each conference’s 2024 membership counted as the champion. In many cases those teams did not actually win the conference, as the actual champions are now in the SEC or Big 10. Still, it gives you an idea of the historical rankings of programs in each conference today:

2023
Big 10 - 5
SEC - 4
ACC - 1
Big 12 - 1*
Other - 1*

2022
Big 10 - 4
Big 12 - 3
SEC - 3
ACC - 1
Other - 1*

2021
Big 10 - 3
Big 12 - 3
SEC - 3
Independent - 1
ACC - 1*
Other - 1*

2019
Big 10 - 4
SEC - 4
Big 12 - 2
ACC - 1
Other - 1*

2018
SEC - 5
Big 10 - 3
ACC - 1
Big 12 - 1
Independent - 1
Other - 1*

2017
SEC - 4
Big 10 - 4
ACC - 2
Big 12 - 1*
Other - 1*

2016
Big 10 - 6
ACC - 2
SEC - 2
Big 12 - 1
Other - 1*

2015
ACC - 3
Big 10 - 3
Big 12 - 2
SEC - 2
Independent - 1
Other - 1*

2014
Big 12 - 4
Big 10 - 3
SEC - 3
ACC - 1
Other - 1*

*Denotes a conference champion that would have been in the CFP ahead of a top-12 at-large team. So a season with one * means the top 11 at-large would have been in, while two * means the top 10 would have been in.

Average (median) number of teams that would have been in the 12-team CFP per conference alignment:
Big 10 - 3.9 (4)
SEC - 3.3 (3)
Big 12 - 2.0 (2)
ACC - 1.4 (1)
Other - 1.0 (1)
Independent - 0.3 (0)

That said, the outcomes would have obviously been different under the new, larger conferences. For example teams like USC, Oregon, OU, and Texas will likely be playing tougher schedules now than before. The question is how that ultimately affects rankings. Personally, I think this might actually benefit the ACC and Big 12. But I don’t think anyone can be certain either way.

Kelly made some huge moves on defense starting with coaches. I think you will see results.

If we play the line up you just stated, 9-3 should get us in the top 12 if we’re competitive in every game.