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re: Is Miles really that great historically in terms of losses per year?
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:24 pm to spiderman
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:24 pm to spiderman
quote:
Win percentage is skewed b/c there are at least 3 games on the modern schedule which are automatic wins. It is virtually impossible for LSU to lose these 3 games. Those 3 automatic wins bloat the win percentage.
For example, lets look at Les' typical 3 loss season (He averages 2.66 losses per year so I rounded up). A 9-3 regular season gives him a win percentage of 75%. Remove the 3 automatic cupcakes and that makes it a 6-3 season against actual real opponents who could actually beat LSU. That's a 66% win percentage. Big Difference.
Why do you seem intent on completely disregarding the fact that schedules are actually more difficult (more games/same amount of cupcakes) than they were in the past? I get that this fact completely destroys your argument, but will you at least confront this issue?
0
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:25 pm to Nuts4LSU
Nuts4LSU
Thank you, you summed it up nicely. Winning % is it.
U2 Rossman.... - SOS
Thank you, you summed it up nicely. Winning % is it.
U2 Rossman.... - SOS
This post was edited on 8/21/14 at 3:26 pm
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:25 pm to spiderman
quote:
Win percentage is skewed b/c there are at least 3 games on the modern schedule which are automatic wins. It is virtually impossible for LSU to lose these 3 games. Those 3 automatic wins bloat the win percentage.
For example, lets look at Les' typical 3 loss season (He averages 2.66 losses per year so I rounded up). A 9-3 regular season gives him a win percentage of 75%. Remove the 3 automatic cupcakes and that makes it a 6-3 season against actual real opponents who could actually beat LSU. That's a 66% win percentage. Big Difference.
Good try, but those wins count. There are no statistics that say, "But if..."
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:25 pm to MetryTyger
quote:
Ole Miss in 2008
Was at 2:30, not a night game even though it was dark when it was over like all November afternoon games following the time change.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:25 pm to spiderman
quote:
Win percentage is skewed b/c there are at least 3 games on the modern schedule which are automatic wins. It is virtually impossible for LSU to lose these 3 games. Those 3 automatic wins bloat the win percentage
Relative to other coaches and programs says you're full of shite.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:26 pm to skullhawk
quote:For those looking for a fairly concise answer to the perennial Miles vs Saban argument, here's a pretty good talking point. Why can't we create our own reign of terror? Does Saban have some secret sauce?
Unfortunately for LSU, this run has also occurred during Bama's reign of terror. Bad timing for LSU and who knows what we'd be celebrating if the SEC offices were in Baton Rouge.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:27 pm to Choctaw
actually, just about every year we need to toss 3 of those wins, and that applies to all big Div I teams. these cream puffs don't count for nothing.
a 10-2 record is really 7-2, maybe 8-2 during a good scheduling year.
not a knock on miles. Reality.
So, I agree with OP that losses are a better indicator of success. 7-2 is a good year, esp with a bowl win.
a 10-2 record is really 7-2, maybe 8-2 during a good scheduling year.
not a knock on miles. Reality.
So, I agree with OP that losses are a better indicator of success. 7-2 is a good year, esp with a bowl win.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:27 pm to MOT
quote:
MOT
Is Miles really that great historically in terms of losses per year?
quote:
Ole Miss in 2008
Was at 2:30, not a night game even though it was dark when it was over like all November afternoon games following the time change.
You're right! Forgot about that (thought it was HC game, but it wasn't - it was J-School Reunion now that I think of it.)
So Miles has lost exactly 2 Saturday night games in DV in 9 years.....
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:28 pm to rmnldr
The dumbest statistical analysis of a coach I have ever seen.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:29 pm to spiderman
quote:
Win percentage is skewed b/c there are at least 3 games on the modern schedule which are automatic wins.
Please point to the three automatic wins on the 2011 schedule. Then also address how the 13th game of that particular season factors into your analysis. In the best years you are rewarded with another game against one of the top teams in the conference.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:31 pm to spiderman
This is why we need to teach common core. You think you understand math and statistics, but you don't. In fact, you central premise, that wins are less valuable when more games are on the schedule, applies to defeat your thesis that losses are a more accurate measure of a season. The truth is that as more games are added to a scheduled, the value of wins and losses decreases equally.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:32 pm to spiderman
ONLY 3 sec conference losses is a "good" year according to my opinion.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:33 pm to tigerpawl
quote:
Why can't we create our own reign of terror? Does Saban have some secret sauce?
To the first question, because truly dominant dynasties are rare. Bama's run compares favorably to Miami's in the 80s or Nebraska in the mid 90s. But even historically great programs are lucky to ever have a run like this.
The second question has an easy answer: Recruiting. Nick Saban has hauled in the #1 class in 6 of the past 7 years, according to rivals. Now, I know some people feel rivals is biased, but that's still amazing, and unheard of bit of recruiting dominance. The only class Saban has had from 2008 to the present was a #5 ranked class in 2010. This is, quite literally, unprecedented.
I'd also point out that you could change zero on-field results and Alabama could have missed the BCSCG in both 2011 and 2012. Alabama's titles are literally based on Saban's incredible salesmanship (in both rankings and especially in recruiting). His secret sauce is he is the best salesmen in NCAA football history.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:34 pm to spiderman
quote:You are correct. Miles has the highest winning percentage of ANY coach(more than 30 games) in LSU history. He has the second highest conference winning% behind Arnsparger and he had 2 ties in conference play....if they had played OT and lost his win percentage would be the exact same as Miles.
This is not an accurate measuring
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:35 pm to spiderman
I'm not reading past your first paragraph or any of your thread. If it's not wins, then it's not losses either because now that they play an extra game, that's another chance to lose. The true measure is win percentage. Miles has been the coach of 5 of the 10 best teams in LSU history by win percentage.
/thread
You lose.
/thread
You lose.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:39 pm to colorchangintiger
We actually played the FRESHMEN squad for a game 
talk about cupcakes lol
talk about cupcakes lol 
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:44 pm to Baloo
quote:
Baloo
Great stuff, as always.
Bookmarked FWIW
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:44 pm to PhiTiger1764
Baloo's posts should have ended this each time.
Thank goodness the season is about to start then we can look at multiple stupid posts in season, but at least we have a few facts to bandy about.
Thank goodness the season is about to start then we can look at multiple stupid posts in season, but at least we have a few facts to bandy about.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:48 pm to spslayto
quote:
Saban only had one season here with fewer than two losses.
Not once did he mention Saban.
Posted on 8/21/14 at 3:54 pm to spiderman
You continue to prove every day you are one of the worst posters on this site.
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