6
- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Has betting completely ruined people’s minds?
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:41 pm
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:41 pm
I saw plenty of people, including members of media complaining about Hockenson sliding down before the goalline yesterday and saying that it was the wrong play.
This is the right move 100 out of 100 times and it’s kind of embarrassing that there is actual discourse on this play.
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. This is the right move 100 out of 100 times and it’s kind of embarrassing that there is actual discourse on this play.
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 2:45 pm
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:42 pm to Dawgsontop34
Everyone just needs to have a “take.” It was the right thing to do.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:46 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:If they are saying it was the wrong play because of the spread, they are dumb.
I saw plenty of people, including members of media complaining about Hockenson sliding down before the goalline yesterday and saying that it was the wrong play?
If they are saying it was the wrong play separate of gambling, they are very dumb.
The Vikings kneeled the ball and won the game after this play. It's very simple to understand why he did it.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:54 pm to Ryan3232
quote:
The Vikings kneeled the ball and won the game after this play. It's very simple to understand why he did it.
I’m not worked up either way, but I look at it like this. There is still a chance you fumble the snap on the kneel down and you are only up 5.
If they score, they are up by 2 scores with 2 minutes left. The dolphins have to score, get an onside, and score again to win. The chances that happens are less than the chance you fumble a snap.
Both are staggeringly small, so again, I don’t really care, but I do think from a mathematical perspective it would have been better to score, even if only the slightest of amounts.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 1:57 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
How many times has a ball been fumbled in victory formation over the last 30 years? How many times has someone scored, on side kicked, and scored again with 2 mins? I don't know either, but I'm curious.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:00 pm to Dawgsontop34
its a serious problem...especially with today's economic woes. people getting desperate and willing to risk cash they don't have. all of these betting apps just makes it alot easier for people to lose everything looking for shortcuts
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:14 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
There is still a chance you fumble the snap on the kneel down and you are only up 5.
They don’t just have to fumble the snap. Miami would either have to recover it and return it 99 yards or recover it and drive 90+ yards in < 2 minutes. Hockenson did the right thing strategically to ensure the win.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:16 pm to Dawgsontop34
People look for reasons not to like it because its a little distasteful to fail to score on purpose, even when its the correct thing to do.
Thankfully, its a rare occurrence.
Thankfully, its a rare occurrence.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:19 pm to High C
quote:
They don’t just have to fumble the snap. Miami would either have to recover it and return it 99 yards or recover it and drive 90+ yards in < 2 minutes. Hockenson did the right thing strategically to ensure the win.
He actually probably mathematically didn’t though. It won’t matter like 9,999 out of 10,000, but that doesn’t make it “right”
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:21 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
quote:
The chances that happens are less than the chance you fumble a snap.
Not so sure about that.
I can't seem to really find an example of a true victory formation botched snap in the NFL. Only one I'm seeing is the SD/KC game from a ways back but idk if that was victory formation as they were trying to center the ball for a kick, not just kneel to run out the clock.
I have to imagine a team scoring 2 TDs in the final 2 mins with no timeouts left has happened at least a couple of times in the past.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:27 pm to JohnnyKilroy
quote:
Not so sure about that.
The data is old, but 15 years ago, about 18% of fumbles were from qb aborted snaps and the total fumble rate today is about 1.5% of plays so maybe you’re right.
Like I said, in either scenario, the Vikings almost certainly win, but it’s not like going up two scores and making the dolphins score, make a PAT (which is no longer a given), recover an onside, and score another TD is dumb.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:34 pm to Ssubba
Odds of losing by fumbling a snap are significantly smaller than going up two scores with 2 minutes left, no doubt. The Browns lost a game in 2022 because Chubb scored a TD. The only fumbled snap loss I can recall recently was Buffalo vs Minnesota, but they were on their own goalline which made it more complicated. In college, I think Miami fumbled a run when they could have kneed it.
LINK Browns loss
LINK Browns loss
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:35 pm to Mingo Was His NameO
Fumbling a snap on a play where you need to drop back to pass or hand off etc are significantly higher than when you are just kneeing to end the game.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:42 pm to TheWalrus
Overall it looks like QBs fumble snaps about .14% of the time, but that doesn’t account for fumbles lost so that is likely still the “better” outcome, but it’s close. If they lose half of those, there is no change of possession 99.9% of the time and the other team would still have to go score. Not sure what the percentage is they score two TD’s in 2 minutes but likely less than 99.9% of the time so it looks like going down is the right play.
This actually gave me more appreciation for how good the qb/center exchange is in the NFL.
Mingo regrets the error after further analysis
This actually gave me more appreciation for how good the qb/center exchange is in the NFL.
Mingo regrets the error after further analysis
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:43 pm to Ryan3232
quote:
The Vikings kneeled the ball and won the game after this play. It's very simple to understand why he did it.
I get why he did it, but...
Why not just score, the game would've been put away...
What was it going to hurt?
I really don't think players are in on it, but officiating... That's a whole new story...
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 2:47 pm
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:44 pm to Dawgsontop34
I have no interest watching a sporting event if I do not have money on it.
My mind was ruined long before I was using my old barber to book my bets in the late 90s, however.
My mind was ruined long before I was using my old barber to book my bets in the late 90s, however.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:47 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
I get why he did it, but... Why not just score, the game would've been put away... What was it going to hurt?
The dolphins could score, get the onside kick, then score again. The Jets did this 4 years ago against the Browns.
The injury risk also increases for players on your team.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:49 pm to Hangover Haven
quote:
I get why he did it, but...
Why not just score, the game would've been put away...
The only chance Miami had to win the game was to get the ball back. Hockenson insured that would not happen. I think I saw that no QB has ever fumbled a snap out of victory formation since victory formation became a thing after the Miracle at the Meadowlands in 1979.
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:54 pm to Boodis Man
“A fool and his money are soon parted.”
Posted on 10/5/26 at 2:56 pm to Dawgsontop34
quote:
The dolphins could score, get the onside kick, then score again.
The 0-3 Dolphins who previously scored 10 the whole game? Oh Ok...
Plus the Dolphins had no time outs...
quote:
onside kick
A successful onside kick is 4 to 7% with the new rules...
This post was edited on 10/5/26 at 3:01 pm
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News