re: Don't understand why Ole Miss is favored

quote:

---

A big part of the reason Florida and Clemson are as low as they are is because we stuffed them.

---

Florida's offensive output
Long Island 55
USF 16
LSU 10
Miami 7

Clemson's offensive output
Troy 27
GT 21
Syracuse 21
LSU 17

These are two terrible offenses in a vacuum, you flatter LSU with the implied causality

No, it's 37 points in 4 games actually.

quote:

---

LSU offense has been inconsistent

---

Not true

You’re a fricking idiot if you can’t understand why Ole Miss would be favored in this game.

I say the Rebels win by 7-10 points.

I understand why Ole Miss is favored; they're the home team, we've looked meh on offense, haven't played a potent offensive opponent yet, and as people noted, even Southeastern severely limited our running game and beat our O Line a number of times.

That said, I don't think we need a big offensive outburst to win. I think our defense is underrated (even though people are talking about it, I don't think nationally people get how good it actually is).

Here's what I see: this defense can stop anyone. Tech and Southeastern would have been shutouts if we left the starters in. I think we have 2 shutdown corners in Delane and Pickett, and the rest of the secondary is also top notch. We have the DL and linebackers to both stuff the run and put major pressure on the QB, and now with Perkins back to playing naturally, a spy that can stop mobile QBs too.

That defense will force a lot of punts. And let's look objectively at that...

We have a capable QB, with an NFL arm, who's a high draft prospect; 4k yds last year. We have 2 guys, Hilton and maybe Brown, who can beat any cornerback deep. We have 2 guys, Aaron Anderson and Zavion Thomas, who are lethal in open space. Anderson is the go-to thus far in the slot, and Thomas is becoming a poor man's Kamara, and he's been effective enough running that you can't focus on pass when he's lined up back there.
We have 2 TEs, Sharp becoming the reliable target, and Green is the insane matchup.

We've seen a couple playcalls where Nuss rolls out, so there are contingencies in place if the line does have some issues. I think there's more, but we've merely tested that- and it worked.

Again, objectively- take that offense (forget it's LSU, it could be any major program), and give them a bunch of possessions (because the defense forces punts). Odds are, it WILL at some point start to click, and you will see some points. And if the opponent can't build up a safe margin, they're gonna be in trouble. LSU has a very dangerous offense that you want to put away, and a defense that won't allow you to.

quote:

---

On offense, yes we need to play better. Running game needs to show improvement and we can't regress into needing Nuss to throw it 50 times a game to have a shot.

---

this right here is enough to give Ole Miss the edge at home.

I think we win Saturday but it’s at their place and our offense leaves a bit to be desired, so I’m not shocked at Ole Miss being slightly favored.

I agree with another poster. Good OP.

It is the Kiffin effect. His teams are overrated every year. People treat him like he is some football genius. He is gimmicky and completely lost as a gameday coach.

LSU 31 OM 10.

I would not put that much stock in Baker’s plan. Lane has put up points on the absolute best of defensive coaches of all time. He will speed the game up much more than we’ve seen yet this year.

The last 3 games have taken the same trajectory. Ole Miss gets up early, looks like they may blow out LSU, only for LSU to get going (usually in the 2nd quarter).

In 2022 OM jumped out to a 17-3 lead
In 2023 OM jumped out to a 21-7 lead
In 2024 OM jumped out to a 10-0 lead (that honestly should have been bigger)

What that tells me is that Kiffin generally has a really good offensive plan to start the game. As good as LSU's defense has been thus far, it's foolish to think OM won't have things designed to hit big plays early. Slow starts haven't hurt LSU, because they have been able to overcome them in each game, but that can be a tough thing to do year after year. Particularly on the road.

I'd really like to see LSU be the aggressor on offense to start. Sloan has generally been AWFUL on opening drives/1st quarters. In 9 SEC games to date, 7 opening drives have ended in punts/TO on downs. IMO, this LSU offense has too many playmakers to tip-toe into the game plan. Try to hit OM early (like they've done to you). Take the home crowd out of the game. I don't like being a visitor having to overcome a deficit while the opponent and home crowd grows more and more confident.