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Message
re: Coach O alluded to a defensive change in the offseason
Posted on 1/21/20 at 10:32 am to BayouCowboy
Posted on 1/21/20 at 10:32 am to BayouCowboy
Aranda was a good DC for LSU. Yes there was a downward trend, but I would have preferred if he had stayed. I think O thought the same and that’s why Dave got the big DC money. However at 43, this was Aranda’s prime time to try HC. We were destined to lose him and everyone knew it from his first day at LSU.
However, O has shown a preference for spread, fast paced, run-pass offense, and a more high pressure turnover producing defense.
I think he’s looking hard Pelini. And that’s NOT a bad thing! Kinda like a Venables D with LSU talent! More fire, less thought.
However, O has shown a preference for spread, fast paced, run-pass offense, and a more high pressure turnover producing defense.
I think he’s looking hard Pelini. And that’s NOT a bad thing! Kinda like a Venables D with LSU talent! More fire, less thought.
0
Posted on 1/21/20 at 10:33 am to BayouCowboy
i love it personally. looking back at our most dominant defenses, we were loaded with difference makers at DLine.
obviously Arandas defense got the job done, but i can see where it would be hard to recruit guys know they'll be doubled teamed every play
obviously Arandas defense got the job done, but i can see where it would be hard to recruit guys know they'll be doubled teamed every play
Posted on 1/21/20 at 10:36 am to BayouCowboy
Can anyone tell me what our DL is supposed to be doing under Aranda when we only rush 3 DL and our Edge Rusher?
What LB are they eating blocks for?
Because this get said over and over and over and it doesn’t make any sense with our four man rush.
What LB are they eating blocks for?
Because this get said over and over and over and it doesn’t make any sense with our four man rush.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 10:39 am to TigerMan327
quote:
You can try and down play it all you want. We've statistically gotten worse every single year he's been here. It's not the type of trend you want.
It's a marginal difference. What's good enough for 14th one season may be good enough for 10th the next.
Go back and look at it. How many points per game did LSU allow in 2018 that ranked 26th? Answer: 21.8. How many ppg did the 31st scoring defense allow this season? Answer: 21.9.
LSU faced 3 of the top 6 scoring offenses in 2019. Played 2 in 2018. In 2016 they only played 1. Pretty sure in 2017 they didn't even play a top 10 scoring offense.
It's not down playing anything to point out that it's not actually a trend. In any given year, the difference between the 10th ranked defense and the 30th ranked defense is about 3-5 points per game.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 10:59 am to TigerMan327
Statistics are great if you know how to look at them.
It’s easy to forget that the defense carries our offense the first 11 games on 2018 and was only allowing about 15 points a game.
13 is a small sampling size and a freakish 7OT game is going to throw off those numbers.
It’s easy to forget that the defense carries our offense the first 11 games on 2018 and was only allowing about 15 points a game.
13 is a small sampling size and a freakish 7OT game is going to throw off those numbers.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:01 am to tduecen
Say what you want about it but my sources talk to O on a regular basis. This isn’t reading forums and making up ????!
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:06 am to SammyTiger
quote:
13 is a small sampling size
If your total population (number of games) is 13-15 in size, then this is not a small sample size. It is a completely representative of your population for a given year.
But yes, this will allow for:
quote:
freakish 7OT game is going to throw off those numbers.
Now, you can maybe look at all games over an entire coach's tenure at a school and say that 13 games is a small sample size.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:13 am to Sasquatch Smash
13 a small sample size regardless of the number of games.
Because it can be greatly effected by 1 outlier.
That’s why you need to look at more than average when determining the quality of something in football
Comparing football season averages to say baseball you get a much less clear picture.
For the first 11 games of last year we were absolutely one of the best defenses in the country.
Then 1 freakish game happens and the stats are greatly effected because 1/12 is a lot compared to 1/50 or 1/162
Because it can be greatly effected by 1 outlier.
That’s why you need to look at more than average when determining the quality of something in football
Comparing football season averages to say baseball you get a much less clear picture.
For the first 11 games of last year we were absolutely one of the best defenses in the country.
Then 1 freakish game happens and the stats are greatly effected because 1/12 is a lot compared to 1/50 or 1/162
This post was edited on 1/21/20 at 11:15 am
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:16 am to coachw
quote:
Aranda leaving is a good thing.
Not a good thing. You can say it's allows you to transition to a different style of defense, but losing a coach like Aranda is never a good thing, even though the knee jerk reactions have been to fire him every other week.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:28 am to BayouCowboy
Great point! Here my take....
Aranda is great and I love him but we’re always stacked with talent on defense! If Chavis can run the best defense in America and win the Broyles Award, I’m confident a lot of coaches can take this talent and turn it into something special. I’m staying optimistic and I’m hoping we stay strong and even improve on defense with whomever we hire!
Aranda is great and I love him but we’re always stacked with talent on defense! If Chavis can run the best defense in America and win the Broyles Award, I’m confident a lot of coaches can take this talent and turn it into something special. I’m staying optimistic and I’m hoping we stay strong and even improve on defense with whomever we hire!
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:31 am to coachw
It's good for him, good for LSU remains to be seen. You arm chair DCs really don't know shite. LSU does not win the Natty without Aranda shutting down some great offenses and getting back players that were injured.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:35 am to BayouCowboy
There will always be elite front 7 players you will lose based off your defense. You won’t get an elite 3-4 OLB in a 4-3. So either way you will sacrifice some elite talent. Hopefully whatever is decided they stick with it. Consistency is most important for recruiting who they want.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:41 am to tigersquad89
quote:
There will always be elite front 7 players you will lose based off your defense. You won’t get an elite 3-4 OLB in a 4-3. So either way you will sacrifice some elite talent. Hopefully whatever is decided they stick with it. Consistency is most important for recruiting who they want.
It certainly changes recruiting dynamics. As for consistency, if Bo is the guy he likely has more longevity here than coaches looking to make their way up the coaching ranks. Pelini wants to be able to stay in a job long term. That's part of why he moved to the Youngstown st job.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:43 am to BayouCowboy
That is a good point.
If Bo works out he may be here a while.
If Bo works out he may be here a while.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:56 am to SammyTiger
quote:
That is a good point. If Bo works out he may be here a while.
Yep and I'm not saying he's the guy we need. He has a track record as a very good DC. He's got some personality issues that work against him as a HC, but that's not what he's being considered for. Will he work well with O? IDK. Can he scheme against modern offenses? IDK.
The one thing I am relatively certain is that our D won't tank with him here and we will be aggressive. Aranda's D is good at keeping plays in front of them and then making opportunities. Not really bend, but don't break, but more of a feeling out process. Pelini will attack more in a Granthan style and may give up a big play but will likely generate more turnovers which can be game changers.
Neither philosophy is right or wrong. It just depends if you are willing to take a calculated risk. Now that we have a dynamic offense we need to be more willing to take that risk because we have confidence our O can score. Just my take.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 11:59 am to BayouCowboy
The Old Ms game was due to the fact we were blowing them out in the 1st half, just beat bama and came out flat thinking they would roll over. Plumlee then surprised us with his speed etc.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 12:46 pm to SammyTiger
quote:
13 a small sample size regardless of the number of games.
Because it can be greatly effected by 1 outlier.
I agree on the outlier part, but it is still the, or near the, entirety of one whole. So, its not too small a sample in the short-term (one season).
Posted on 1/21/20 at 12:52 pm to Wayne Campbell
quote:
It's a marginal difference. What's good enough for 14th one season may be good enough for 10th the next.
Go back and look at it. How many points per game did LSU allow in 2018 that ranked 26th? Answer: 21.8. How many ppg did the 31st scoring defense allow this season? Answer: 21.9.
LSU faced 3 of the top 6 scoring offenses in 2019. Played 2 in 2018. In 2016 they only played 1. Pretty sure in 2017 they didn't even play a top 10 scoring offense.
It's not down playing anything to point out that it's not actually a trend. In any given year, the difference between the 10th ranked defense and the 30th ranked defense is about 3-5 points per game.
Posted on 1/21/20 at 1:36 pm to TigerMan327
WI defense did NOT fall apart when Aranda left. And LSU's defense is not getting any worse in the near future - probably better.
Posted on 10/12/20 at 10:55 am to ColeLSU
quote:
You can say youd prefer an attacking D-line or philosophy change and thats fine....
But we just lost a Top 5 DC.......so be careful what you wish for.....
Welp. Told ya so.
And I wish I was wrong. Losing Aranda and Brady is proving to be quite the disaster.
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