- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Bayesian Statistics and the Conversion Attempt
Posted on 9/9/22 at 11:47 am
Posted on 9/9/22 at 11:47 am
BK may have been correct regarding kicking for the PAT and playing for overtime, but maybe not. There are more statistics involved to arrive at the right decision.
If a successful PAT is a 96% probability, the probability of winning in overtime must also be considered. If winning in OT is a 50-50 proposition, the chance of both kicking the PAT AND winning in OT is actually 48%, and not much different from going for the two point conversion (47%).
However, if the odds of winning in OT are 60% (say, given that we had momentum), then the chance of converting the PAT AND winning in OT rises to 57.6%, and favors playing for OT.
Personally, I think we had them back on their heels right then; and we may have had a better than 47% chance of converting for two. Who knows! Hindsight is still 20-20.
If a successful PAT is a 96% probability, the probability of winning in overtime must also be considered. If winning in OT is a 50-50 proposition, the chance of both kicking the PAT AND winning in OT is actually 48%, and not much different from going for the two point conversion (47%).
However, if the odds of winning in OT are 60% (say, given that we had momentum), then the chance of converting the PAT AND winning in OT rises to 57.6%, and favors playing for OT.
Personally, I think we had them back on their heels right then; and we may have had a better than 47% chance of converting for two. Who knows! Hindsight is still 20-20.
17
Posted on 9/9/22 at 11:49 am to MidCityTiger
2-pt conversion would’ve been the right call, but I don’t fault BK for the extra point.
Definitely a “what could have been” type of situation.
Definitely a “what could have been” type of situation.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 11:57 am to MidCityTiger
We probably get the 2pt conversion and also probably beat them in OT. We had all the momentum.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:04 pm to 0x15E
quote:
2-pt conversion would’ve been the right call
Nope. Our chances of winning were best if we kicked the PAT and won in OT. But, like you, I would not have criticized BK had he gone for two and lost.
This post was edited on 9/9/22 at 12:05 pm
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:05 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
BK may have been correct regarding kicking for the PAT and playing for overtime, but maybe not.
Come on man, can you imagine if he went for 2 and missed what this place would have been like?
Stop this nonsense.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:07 pm to MidCityTiger
Without knowing the extra-point would be blocked or what the outcome of OT would be, there was probably no "wrong" decision in the moment. That is one of those where the HC has to make a call on "feel".
Even before the XP was blocked I wanted Kelly to go for two. LSU had just driven 99 yards, nearly unimpeded, in just over a minute. They would have had the ball in their possession, at the 2 yard line, with a hot QB, and a chance to end the game right then and there. A chance quite frankly they never should have had in the first place but for FSU foolishly fumbling on the LSU goal-line with a chance to make it a two possession game with very little time remaining.
I didn't want to move the ball back to the 25 in OT and give FSU another possession when LSU was probably fortunate to have a chance to win it in regulation anyway. In other words, LSU shouldn't have had a chance to win that game after the Nabers fumble...but they did, and after the TD was the time to take full advantage without giving FSU another chance to win.
Had LSU scored with a minute or two remaining on the clock then I probably would have said kick the XP and go to OT. But with no time left on the clock that was the time to go for the killshot
Even before the XP was blocked I wanted Kelly to go for two. LSU had just driven 99 yards, nearly unimpeded, in just over a minute. They would have had the ball in their possession, at the 2 yard line, with a hot QB, and a chance to end the game right then and there. A chance quite frankly they never should have had in the first place but for FSU foolishly fumbling on the LSU goal-line with a chance to make it a two possession game with very little time remaining.
I didn't want to move the ball back to the 25 in OT and give FSU another possession when LSU was probably fortunate to have a chance to win it in regulation anyway. In other words, LSU shouldn't have had a chance to win that game after the Nabers fumble...but they did, and after the TD was the time to take full advantage without giving FSU another chance to win.
Had LSU scored with a minute or two remaining on the clock then I probably would have said kick the XP and go to OT. But with no time left on the clock that was the time to go for the killshot
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:11 pm to MidCityTiger
The correct call was to go for 2 on the first touchdown scored while down 14.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:11 pm to CalTiger53
quote:
Come on man, can you imagine if he went for 2 and missed what this place would have been like?
This. Everyone would have called it bush league and that only inferior teams who shouldn't even be in the game go for two in that scenario.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:12 pm to MidCityTiger
If BK was going to go for 2, it would've been better to do it after we cut it to 8. At least, that's what the numbers say. It gives you another opportunity to go for 2 if you miss the first one. If he always planned to try to win in overtime, then kicking the PAT both times made sense.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:13 pm to CalTiger53
quote:
can you imagine if he went for 2 and missed what this place would have been like?
it would have been a ballsy move. but just imagine if he got it.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:20 pm to MidCityTiger
quote:
There are more statistics involved to arrive at the right decision.
decisions shouldn't be made merely on statistics. game flow, conditioning level, momentum and confidence subjective and unmeasurable. so those metrics dont mean jack. analytics have their place but not in that time situation. you go with your gut. there is only one HC. Make the choice that you are paid to make.
If we went for two and didnt get it the outrage would be off the charts. stop second guessing. Its been a week bro
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:20 pm to Alt26
quote:
there was probably no "wrong" decision in the moment....that was the time to go for the killshot
Agree on both. LSU was on the 2 yard line with a chance to grab the win. Take advantage of the momentum.
Go for the PAT and then you're going for the win from the 25 AND have to stop FSU. Coin toss, etc and the momentum could be gone.
Not second guessing CBK. I also agree we should be able to win in OT but we were only 2 yards away and obviously the PAT was not a given.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:20 pm to CalTiger53
quote:
Come on man, can you imagine if he went for 2 and missed what this place would have been like?
I'm a pretty harsh critic of coaching decisions. Considering the momentum, the fluke fumble recovery and the disaster that the game had been to that point, I would not not have faulted him at all for going for it, even if he failed. It would have been the right call.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:23 pm to MidCityTiger
This kicker is really making a lot of people feel uneasy moving forward throughout the season.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:23 pm to Mickey Goldmill
quote:
Everyone would have called it bush league
Coaches shouldn't make decisions based on potential criticisms.
He has a 10-year, $100 million contract. He should be above those types of influences. And I hope he is.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:25 pm to Gings5
quote:
We probably get the 2pt conversion
Why would you think that?
Wasn’t it also true we probably get the extra point?
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:26 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
quote:
Coaches shouldn't make decisions based on potential criticisms.
He has a 10-year, $100 million contract. He should be above those types of influences. And I hope he is.
I'm not saying he made a decision based on any of that. The point was everyone second guessing him now would have crucified him had he gone for 2 and failed.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:35 pm to Mickey Goldmill
Some would, sure.
I think most people would agree it was the right call.
I think most people would agree it was the right call.
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:37 pm to Breauxsif
quote:
This kicker is really making a lot of people feel uneasy moving forward throughout the season.
It wasn't the kicker's fault
Posted on 9/9/22 at 12:39 pm to Bjorn Cyborg
It should have never come down to this question, if we had taken care of business the first three quarters of the game.
Page 1 of 3
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News