re: Signing Limit Waiver Details & Projected Attrition

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Does a departure for any reason by an otherwise academically eligible player counts? Meaning that if a player simply quits the football team or school altogether and forgoes his scholarship, would that count?

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My understanding is that yes, it would count. From the NCAA Q&A document:

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Question No. 8: Does the blanket waiver apply to counters who depart the institution for any reason (e.g., transfer, professional draft)?

Answer: Yes, provided the counter would have been academically eligible for competition in the ensuing regular academic term.

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Emphasis on any reason. That said, the player does actually have to leave the school. Another item from the Q&A document:

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Question No. 11: Does the blanket waiver apply to a counter who quits the football team but remains enrolled at the institution?

Answer: No. That counter has not departed the institution; therefore, the blanket waiver does not apply.

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If a kid quits the team but continues attending classes at LSU, he doesn’t qualify. This could relevant for players who might “opt out” mid-season, for example - whether they are in the portal or just quit football for whatever reason. As I understand it though, once a counter transfers (or quits school) they do count.

So if a player enters the portal in the middle of fall camp but continues to attend classes and doesn’t actually transfer until after the semester ends, that should qualify.

It could get complicated if a player were to quit / enter the portal / whatever and then wait a really long time to transfer. Theoretically if a player stuck around at LSU long enough to no longer be considered a “counter” towards the scholarship limits, then decided to transfer, they might not qualify for replacement. But I think this is a moot point for now since the blanket waiver is currently temporary and only applies through July 31, 2022. I believe a scholarship is a “counter” for the full academic year (barring other loopholes like “midyear replacement” that I don’t really care to get into ).

Anyhow, I digress - the reason I joked about the layers of exceptions and clarifications in the NCAA rules was that there are some weird arse eligibility conditions related to walk ons that I don’t fully understand. But AFAIK these rules are all tied to how the walk on is (or is not) counted at his new school. I don’t think it matters for the previous school whether the player receives a scholarship, enters the draft, or goes to work at Burger King as far as the signing limit waiver is concerned.

If you dig deep enough you can almost certainly find some weird and inconsistent scenarios that might apply. But given that this is (again, as of right now) a temporary waiver.. and given that we are really focused on impacts at LSU specifically, I don’t know that those scenarios are really impactful in any way.

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Blake Graffino said on Bill King's radio show in Nashville it's impossible for LSU to reach 70 scholarship players next year.

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I knew O was complete shite and Neanderthal but damn, that’s just more pathetic than I thought he was. He set LSU back for at least a year, maybe 2. Talk about a perfect storm of O, NIL and transfer portal. It has decimated LSU.

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So, it does not appear that a player who is paid with NIL money but who does not receive a scholarship counts against the numbers.

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In our current scenario, teams with unlimited budgets never need to worry about over-recruiting. We could see Bama, A&M, and Texas with, in effect, 120 "scholarship" players every year.

Are my assessments correct or am I missing something?

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I don’t know that the question is necessarily related to the signing limit waiver itself, but sure - theoretically that’s possible. I’m not convinced that’s what lies ahead, though.

Consider that a rash of 4* players with scholarship offers from other schools going to a powerhouse program without any financial aid is likely to raise a TON of scrutiny from the NCAA. Also consider that these NIL deals have to be reported, so there’s a paper trail of who received money and how much.

Further, walk ons cannot sign a National Letter of Intent (NLI). The NLI is binding, and it’s the only thing that really guarantees a recruit will enroll and show up to fall camp. Despite the new one-time transfer exception, the NLI still has teeth because it’s not directly enforced by the NCAA - it’s (to oversimplify) a contract between schools who use NLI where they agree not to take a player who has signed an NLI elsewhere in the past year.

You can say “but the money will get them to enroll!” but A) we are apparently talking about small-money deals that are roughly equivalent to the scholarship a kid would receive elsewhere and B) kids are flaky/indecisive.

Granted, maybe it doesn’t matter whether the low 4-star recruits bail as long as you filled your scholarship class with better players. But when you consider everything I just don’t think it’s likely. Unless the NCAA completely punts and decides not to enforce any of their restrictions on pay-for-play. It’s a little early to make that statement right now, IMO.

Thanks for the information. This situation is going to take a couple years to correct. We have been lucky for awhile teetering on the edge of the cliff with the numbers due to early departures. People need to set their expectations to a reasonable level until we can get on the right side of these numbers. Need to set reasonable expectations on transfer portal. If we can hit on 50% of players we get from the portal it would be a success. We can’t expect to bring in 20 joe burrows.

LSU Compliance Department will read the rules differently and more conservatively against the best interest of the school.

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To Be Determined
These guys did not play in the Texas Bowl and/or have various amounts of smoke surrounding them. Some of them may simply be injured.
• Dwight McGlothern (CB)
• Garrett Dellinger (OL)
• Charles Turner (OL)
• Marcus Dumervil (OL)
• Quentin Skinner (LS)
• Xavier Hill (OL)
• Micah Baskerville (LB)

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I didnt know there was any smoke around any of these guys. They all have a great chance to start next year or atleast gets lots of playing time. Can't imagine why any of them wouldn't be here next year, unless I've completely missed something.

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Need to add Ali Gaye as a question mark (not seeing on list currently). I haven't seen anything on him declaring?

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I thought about it but left him off because:
1. We know why he didn’t play in the bowl - he had a season ending injury.
2. He has remaining eligibility and I haven’t seen anything to suggest that he’s leaving.
3. He’s a projected UDFA right now (based on the projections I’ve seen online), so it’s hard to see why he would leave.

Not that any of this is guaranteed to stop an LSU player from leaving. But as of right now I feel like he’s coming back and it would be a surprise to hear otherwise.

I probably just jinxed it.

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The university must be able to certify that the player would be academically eligible for the following regular academic term, if they had not departed the university.

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. I have a issue with this part. A player could quit going to class knowing he is going to transfer or opt out become ineligible and screw over the school he is leaving

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A player could quit going to class knowing he is going to transfer or opt out become ineligible and screw over the school he is leaving

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They’d be screwing themselves as well. The way academic eligibility works for transfers is kind of wonky. But they still have to meet GPA and progress-toward-degree requirements. How much progress is required toward the degree depends on when they transfer.

Regardless, a player who quits going to class and transfers is going to be in an academic hole from day 1 at their new school. Maybe they can regain eligibility by taking summer/intercession classes, but I don’t know why they would do that to themselves just to keep their previous school from adding another player.