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lostinbr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
5583 posts

Signing Limit Waiver Details & Projected Attrition

I’ve seen a lot of incorrect information flying around regarding the transfer portal and the waiver for signing limits, and thought it might help to put all of this info in one thread. We’ll see – maybe this is a massive waste of time.. but maybe somebody gets some use out of this.

I realize I am not immune to mistakes interpreting some of this stuff. If anyone finds any incorrect information in this post, please let me know and I will update accordingly.

So for starters, what is the actual NCAA rule regarding replacement of transfers?

Background
In previous years, each D1 team has been subject to two main scholarship restrictions:
1. Maximum 85 total “counters.”
2. Maximum 25 “initial counters” per academic year.
A “counter” is basically any player that receives athletic financial aid – e.g. a scholarship. Non-scholarship players (walk-ons) are not “counters.” An “initial counter” is a player receiving athletic financial aid at the university for the first time. This can be a high school recruit, a D1 transfer, or a JUCO transfer.

So each team is limited to 25 “new” scholarships per academic year, meaning fall-spring. There are existing exceptions/loopholes (grayshirts, blueshirts, back-counted early enrollees, etc.) but those are really outside the scope of this discussion. All of those existing exceptions/loopholes still apply, regardless of the new NCAA waiver.

OK, so that was the old system. What changed?

Signing Limit Blanket Waiver
Given the rise in college football transfers, the NCAA has given universities a blanket waiver to exceed the annual signing limit in order to replace players lost to the transfer portal. You can read the NCAA’s Q&A document about the blanket waiver here.

The blanket waiver allows FBS team to add up to 7 initial counters above the normal 25 maximum, in order to replace players who depart the program. The actual criteria for replacement of scholarships under the blanket waiver are:
• The departing player must have left the university on or after the last day of the university’s fall term (which appears to be December 11, 2021 according to LSU’s academic calendar).
• The player being replaced must have remaining eligibility.
• The university must be able to certify that the player would be academically eligible for the following regular academic term, if they had not departed the university.

According to the NCAA Q&A document, the blanket waiver applies to scholarship players who depart the university for any reason – including transfers and the NFL draft. However, it’s possible (if not likely) that some of our NFL draft early entrants have not maintained their academic eligibility. One way to interpret this: if a player is leaving early for the draft and PLAYED in the bowl game, you know he was academically eligible. If a player is leaving early for the draft and OPTED OUT of the bowl game, he may or may not have been academically eligible; there’s no way to know for sure.

Note that for transfers, the “departure date” is based on the date they leave the university – not the date they enter the transfer portal.

The replacement scholarships can go to any initial counters – they do not have to be players from the transfer portal. They can be used on high school recruits, JUCO transfers, or D1 transfers.

The following are examples of players who would not qualify for replacement under the blanket waiver:
• Any player who transferred prior to the end of the fall semester.
• Any player who left the university prior to the end of the fall semester, even if they didn’t transfer until after.
• Any player who would not have been academically eligible for the regular semester following their departure (Spring 2022 for any players who have already departed).
• Any player who has run out of college eligibility.

The waiver allows replacement of up to 7 initial counters. If there are 5 eligible “departures,” we get 5 additional signees. If there are 10 eligible “departures,” we get 7 additional signees.

Projected Attrition:

What does our attrition (and projected attrition) actually look like? I went through the roster and identified players that we know are not returning next year, as well as players that may not be returning next year. Here’s what I found:

Already Transferred
Dates are based on the 247 transfer portal tracker. All three of these players should be eligible for replacement, assuming the dates below are accurate and they would have been academically eligible for the spring:
• Landon Jackson (DL, transferred to Arkansas 12/12/21)
• Eli Ricks (CB, transferred to Alabama 12/15/21)
• Max Johnson (QB, transferred to Texas A&M 12/17/21)
• Trey Palmer (WR, transferred to Nebraska 1/8/22)
• Alex Adams (WR, transferred to Akron 1/12/22)
• Dwight McGlothern (CB, transferred to Arkansas 1/16/22)*

*There are rumors that McGlothern was not academically eligible.

Still in Transfer Portal
These players should be eligible for replacement if they actually transfer and they maintain academic eligibility:
• Deion Smith (WR)
• Koy Moore (WR)
• Navonteque Strong (LB)
• Devonta Lee (WR)

NFL Draft – Remaining Eligibility
These players should be eligible for replacement, assuming they would have been academically eligible for the spring. That said, Clark, Stingley, TDP, and Flott did not play in the bowl so we don’t know their academic status for sure.
• Damone Clark (LB, 1 year remaining eligibility)
• Derek Stingley, Jr. (CB, 2 years remaining eligibility)
• Ed Ingram (OL, 1 year remaining eligibility)
• Tyrion Davis-Price (RB, 2 years remaining eligibility)
• Cordale Flott (CB, 2 years remaining eligibility)
• Avery Atkins (KOS, 1 year remaining eligibility)
• Cade York (K, 2 years remaining eligibility)
• Chasen Hines (OL, 1 year remaining eligibility)

Exhausted Eligibility
These players are not eligible for replacement regardless of whether they enter the draft, because they are out of college eligibility:
• Austin Deculus (OL)
• Cameron Lewis (S)
• Darren Evans (CB)
• Glen Logan (DL)
• Jontre Kirklin (WR/QB/DB)
• Liam Shanahan (OL)
• Neil Farrell, Jr. (DL)

To Be Determined
These guys did not play in the Texas Bowl and/or have various amounts of smoke surrounding them. Some of them may simply be injured.
• Garrett Dellinger (OL)
• Andre Anthony (DE, may have additional eligibility if he received a medical redshirt for 2017 or 2021)
• Charles Turner (OL)
• Marcus Dumervil (OL)
• Quentin Skinner (LS)
• Xavier Hill (OL)

Please let me know if any of these look incorrect and I will edit accordingly. Assuming people are actually interested in tracking this in one place, I’ll try to update this as we get additional information regarding attrition.
This post was edited on 1/23 at 10:07 pm


wesman21
LSU Fan
Youngsville
Member since Jun 2009
2356 posts

Fantastic work. This should answer a very large percentage of questions on this topic.


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672
Tshiz
LSU Fan
Oxford
Member since Jul 2013
5513 posts

Explain it to me like I’m 5


Dogwalk
USA Fan
Perkins, LA
Member since Jun 2016
887 posts

Nice Post.
Jontre’ Kirklin *(WR/QB)


Ice Cold
USA Fan
Over Macho Grande
Member since Jun 2004
18630 posts

quote:

lostinbr


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160
lostinbr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
5583 posts

quote:

Nice Post.
Jontre’ Kirklin *(WR/QB)

Edited!


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290
PUB
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2017
11688 posts

LSU's roster is in dire need of bodies and at the current rate, the team will be lucky to have 65 - 70 players next season.
This post was edited on 1/6 at 1:57 pm


Kingpenm3
McNeese State Fan
Xanadu
Member since Aug 2011
8247 posts

quote:

Signing Limit Waiver Details & Projected Attrition



So the max is 32 and we are more than qualified for the max?

If we can add 32 new scholly players next year, how many toward our 85 can we expect?


wrongRob
LSU Fan
Tampa FL
Member since Oct 2017
513 posts

That took a lot of effort. Thank you!


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320
p&g
LSU Fan
Dixie
Member since Jun 2005
12164 posts

I read the other day that like 60% of players In transfer portal never get signed to a new team


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SwatMitchell
LSU Fan
Austin, TX
Member since Jan 2005
2276 posts

quote:

Exhausted Eligibility
These players are not eligible for replacement regardless of whether they enter the draft, because they are out of college eligibility:
• Austin Deculus (OL)
• Cameron Lewis (S)
• Darren Evans (CB)
• Glen Logan (DL)
• Jontre Kirklin (WR/QB/DB)
• Liam Shanahan (OL)
• Neil Farrell, Jr. (DL)


As an entrepreneur, manager, coworker, subordinate, or customer, these are the guys with whom you'd most likely enjoy working!
This post was edited on 1/6 at 2:14 pm


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501
lostinbr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
5583 posts

quote:

So the max is 32 and we are more than qualified for the max?

We are qualified for the max if all of our transfers and NFL draft early entrants that didn't play in the bowl game maintained their academic eligibility.

I feel pretty confident that at least a couple of our departures have probably not maintained academic eligibility. This is unfortunately not that uncommon for players who are entering the draft early. That being said, we are up to 9 qualifying departures (not accounting for academics) and I expect that number to increase - so it seems pretty likely that we'll wind up with the full 7 extra spots in the end.

ETA:
quote:

If we can add 32 new scholly players next year, how many toward our 85 can we expect?

I haven't fully vetted this, but some quick math..

It was reported that we had 39 scholarship players available for the bowl game. 2 of those scholarship players that WERE available (Hines and Ingram) have announced they are leaving. Another 4 of those players are out of eligibility.

So 39 scholarship players in the bowl - 6 leaving + 32 additions = 65 total scholarship players.

However, a lot of the guys who were out for the bowl were actually NOT opt-outs/transfers. So we actually have at least Brennan, Boutte, Gaye, Anthony (maybe), Emery, Bradford, and probably a handful more I'm leaving out. There are also guys in the portal who may decide to come back.

So if there are, say, 8-15 guys total that were not available for the bowl but are returning, that puts you at 73-80 scholarships if you sign a full class - not counting any additional players entering the portal or declaring for the draft.

ETA2: Math.
This post was edited on 1/6 at 2:15 pm


HammerheadLincoln
LSU Fan
The farther west the farther out
Member since May 2015
3233 posts

So basically we're pretty much guaranteed to qualify for the 7 replacement players.

We need to utilize ALL of the replacement slots


FLBooGoTigs1
LSU Fan
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
50164 posts

My man

Even got the sticky


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140
bayouboo
LSU Fan
Member since Jan 2007
1122 posts

How would a portal player be counted if they don’t get picked up by anyone and decide to walk on somewhere?


Jugular Joe
Member since Jan 2020
2261 posts

ok now do the Bama/Saban rules

I'll hang up and wait.
This post was edited on 1/6 at 2:18 pm


FLBooGoTigs1
LSU Fan
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
50164 posts

Hope we get some of “to be determined “ those guys back.


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100
lostinbr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
5583 posts

quote:

We need to utilize ALL of the replacement slots

We can roll them forward to use on 2023 early enrollees if we have to, but that's tough to swallow when your roster is this depleted.

The only argument I would make to support rolling over unused spots is that BK might get better players after a full recruiting cycle.

But again.. that's a tough pill to swallow if you're facing <70 scholarship players on next year's roster.


MiaTigah
LSU Fan
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2009
418 posts
 Online 

This is awesome. Thanks for doing this.


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lostinbr
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2017
5583 posts

quote:

How would a portal player be counted if they don’t get picked up by anyone and decide to walk on somewhere?

I feel like this is an attempt to troll me into going down a 4 hour rabbit hole, reading 200 pages of NCAA regulations and exceptions. I'm not falling for it!

My best guess is that it still counts as a departure (thus qualifying for the waiver), regardless of whether they receive financial aid at their new school. That is assuming they were actually under scholarship at LSU. If they were non-scholarship walk-ons at LSU, there is no scholarship to "refund" in the first place.

This doesn't seem very likely though when talking about LSU players. I don't think any of our scholarship guys are going to walk on somewhere else.


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