re: LSU Baseball 2026 (and beyond) Recruiting Thread

The fact that he didn't immediately pivot to LSU after negotiations broke down is pretty telling to me.

LSU isn't the program for you if your heart and mind isn't 100% in it. Just my 2 cents.

But is that a realistic argument? The goal, to get paid is to get to the Show, not just “pitch” baseballs.

Is passing on college (3 years) and going straight to the minors actually speed up his time to pitch in the MLB? My simple Google search said it’s faster to the MLB via the college route than it is via straight to minors. (4.5 years vs 6.5 years). Maybe our board experts can add detail to that number.

Considering that injury can happen anytime, and is often “inevitable” it doesn’t really hold water that skipping college offers a lower chance of injury on the route to the MLB.

To me the risk is simply will he make more money via JUCO and redraft versus NIL and college development versus the $1.7 mil on the table.

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Correct but he'll still get his $$ via NIL

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This isnt nearly what you probably think it is

IT's not like he's coming here making 7 figures a year

He'd probably be lucky to get even 6 figures year 1

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To me the risk is simply will he make more money via JUCO and redraft versus NIL and college development versus the $1.7 mil on the table.

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Given what we know, this is the crux of the issue. He wants both the FASTEST way to make the MOST money. Maybe he’d rather make 3.5m next year instead of 5m in 3 years or something like that.

Who knows what’s going on but it’s fun to play with all of these hypotheticals.

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If he’s successful at LSU, he signs for far more than that.

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If he's successful year 1 at a JUCO he could also sign for $3M-$4M maybe and this is all a moot point.

To me, at least, he's looking for the fastest route to getting a bigger signing bonus, and that way is not locking himself into waiting 3 years here. HE can always come here after 2 years in JUCO if he isnt happy with where his draft status is.

Plus whenever you see guys like this who clearly to me have no real interest in college, is this a guy you definitely want in the program? Jay has said many many times over the past few months, but he really wants guys who WANT to be here, not just guys looking out for themselves and dont care about college at all necessarily.

Hanny just made a good point that avoiding LSU for fear of injury doesn't avoid the injury possibility at Juco.

You can get hurt at Juco with no $ in the bank just as easily as getting hurt at LSU with some $.

It could be argued with LSU's training staff and technology/diagnostics, Schmidt might be less likely to get injured at LSU than Juco.

Hanny also said rumored NIL deal pf 1 million.

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I understand what you're saying and I actually agree with some of it. However, he still has room for development and he would develop far more in LSU's building than JUCO. I think thats the game changer if he can see the value in developing as a pitcher at LSU similar to a Kade Anderson (understand he doesn't have the ability to leave after 2 years but still).

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But he'll get a ton more innings and oppurtunity at a JUCO than he would at LSU.

Or he can at least be guaranteed those things things at a JUCO, whereas he'd have to fight for them here.

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If he's successful year 1 at a JUCO he could also sign for $3M-$4M maybe and this is all a moot point.

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While this is possible, it is definitely not the likely outcome. Relying on AI - but it lines up with my memory - only 4 guys have gotten over $2.5million out of juco. Out of those 4, only two (Harper and Cam Collier) got over $3.5M. Total, only 8 have gotten over $2M

Additionally, Schmidt is not a top 10 prospect. He was #45 on mlb.com. That puts him closer to Mac Marshall (#66 out of high school) than to being a top 20 prospect. Marshall got $750k after his juco move.

All that to say, it is possible he could come out and absolutely dominate juco and get one of the biggest juco signing bonuses ever, but historically he is more likely to stay the same or get a lower bonus. The juco route just doesn't make a ton of sense, and I would have taken the $1.7M if he was that ready to get his pro career started. Also, it seems like his management let him down by letting it play out this way.

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Plus whenever you see guys like this who clearly to me have no real interest in college, is this a guy you definitely want in the program? Jay has said many many times over the past few months, but he really wants guys who WANT to be here, not just guys looking out for themselves and dont care about college at all necessarily.

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This is a good point. If you have to drag him to college kicking and screaming he’s probably not going to be bought in on any role other than starting on the weekend.