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Message
re: LSU Baseball 2024 (and beyond) Recruiting Thread OLD THREAD
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:05 am to Tigah14
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:05 am to Tigah14
I laid out a theory on how NIL would play for HS draft prospects.
It was that LSU is never going to replace the draft bonus. But every kid values the college experience a certain way.
Let's use Schmidt in this instance. His pre-NIL value of attending LSU was around $3.5MM. Meaning that an MLB team had to pay him at least that to buy him out of his dream of playing at LSU.
With NIL, it's not absorbed into the 3.5, it's added on top. Because the value of the experience doesn't change when income is added. It can change (in this case it may have) due to other factors, but additional income just makes that number go up. And if it's spread over 3 years, it can make that number go from 3.5 to 4.2 pretty quickly and reasonably.
It was that LSU is never going to replace the draft bonus. But every kid values the college experience a certain way.
Let's use Schmidt in this instance. His pre-NIL value of attending LSU was around $3.5MM. Meaning that an MLB team had to pay him at least that to buy him out of his dream of playing at LSU.
With NIL, it's not absorbed into the 3.5, it's added on top. Because the value of the experience doesn't change when income is added. It can change (in this case it may have) due to other factors, but additional income just makes that number go up. And if it's spread over 3 years, it can make that number go from 3.5 to 4.2 pretty quickly and reasonably.
2
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:05 am to Tigah14
quote:
They have been pushing school because they’re both education freaks with PhD’s.
that’s really cool. Do they teach at LSU or something?
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:09 am to ProjectP2294
I think you gotta look at it like this.
You have a number:m. then you take out taxes and agent fees etc. If things go bad is that number what you’re OK with making from baseball the rest of your life?
Because you’re making teacher pay in the minors and if you never make the pros that’s your money.
Ido you take that or do you roll the dice and come back in 3 years bigger and stronger and hopefully with no zipper.
Grant taylor still got 1.69 million coming off Surgery in the 2nd round. So if he shows anything in the cod or SEC he will probably get a chung anyway.
You have a number:m. then you take out taxes and agent fees etc. If things go bad is that number what you’re OK with making from baseball the rest of your life?
Because you’re making teacher pay in the minors and if you never make the pros that’s your money.
Ido you take that or do you roll the dice and come back in 3 years bigger and stronger and hopefully with no zipper.
Grant taylor still got 1.69 million coming off Surgery in the 2nd round. So if he shows anything in the cod or SEC he will probably get a chung anyway.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:10 am to Tigah14
quote:You were way less wrong than my dumbass was, I think you were actually correct all considered. That makes sense though, I appreciate your insight
Last night I confirmed, with someone as close to the situation as you can be, that Schmidt’s number took a massive jump a couple of days before the draft (i’m guessing a big NIL movement). He got his original number but held firm. Hell of a job by Jay and co. I’ve never been so happy to be wrong.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:11 am to ProjectP2294
We will possibly be getting another player back for the fall but, right now, I can’t say who it is. I’m sure the name will come out soon enough. Just add a number to your count.
This post was edited on 7/15/24 at 10:18 am
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:12 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
He declared that he's no longer fielding offers. He can't pull his name at this point.
Ahh ok, I gotcha. Preciate the clarification…
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:20 am to ProjectP2294
quote:
I laid out a theory on how NIL would play for HS draft prospects.
It was that LSU is never going to replace the draft bonus. But every kid values the college experience a certain way.
Let's use Schmidt in this instance. His pre-NIL value of attending LSU was around $3.5MM. Meaning that an MLB team had to pay him at least that to buy him out of his dream of playing at LSU.
With NIL, it's not absorbed into the 3.5, it's added on top. Because the value of the experience doesn't change when income is added. It can change (in this case it may have) due to other factors, but additional income just makes that number go up. And if it's spread over 3 years, it can make that number go from 3.5 to 4.2 pretty quickly and reasonably.
I think Schmidt is a very unique case. Sure, NIL lessens the sting, but I think the kid could never get over the fact that he was turning down his only chance to play for LSU by going pro. The draft process was never able to remove that from his mind.
This post was edited on 7/15/24 at 11:32 am
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:23 am to skullhawk
I always love getting the Louisiana Gatorade Player of the Year.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:25 am to SammyTiger
quote:
If things go bad is that number what you’re OK with making from baseball the rest of your life?
How do initial MLB contracts work? Would that 3.5 be guaranteed but no future money would be certain?
So, if he makes 1.5 at lsu the next years he still has a chance to be a high draft pick, right? So he’s guaranteed 1.5 at lsu then guaranteed 2-3.5 in the next draft, plus the experience, plus the future networking that being an LSU baseball player leads to.
I rant about all of that to say that I don’t think LSU has to get so close to his number to make it “worth it”. What’s the long term value of living in BR and putting “LSU baseball national champion” on your resume?
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:30 am to hall59tiger
quote:
How do initial MLB contracts work? Would that 3.5 be guaranteed but no future money would be certain?
The signing bonus is paid 100% up front, they get paid a little salary going through the minors but its peanuts ($26k-$36k/yr)
This post was edited on 7/15/24 at 10:31 am
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:31 am to Asleepinthecove
quote:
We will possibly be getting another player back for the fall but, right now, I can’t say who it is. I’m sure the name will come out soon enough. Just add a number to your count.
Back as in went into the portal from last years team and might decide to come back to LSU?
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:32 am to hall59tiger
quote:
How do initial MLB contracts work? Would that 3.5 be guaranteed but no future money would be certain?
You get a signing bonus and a small monthly salary from February - November, in season housing, and two meals per day. It's not much but well over twice as much as they received just a few years ago.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 10:45 am to thunderbird1100
quote:
The signing bonus is paid 100% up front, they get paid a little salary going through the minors but its peanuts ($26k-$36k/yr)
Yeah. A lot of people don’t realize that MLB signing bonuses are like “hey live off this until and if you make it”
Posted on 7/15/24 at 11:02 am to Hester Carries
it’s insane. and MLB players make decent money compared to an average person when they make the majors but your still not make insane pro athlete money the first few years when you’re under team control.
It surprises me when HS kids take like 1 millio. dollars in the 3rd.
It surprises me when HS kids take like 1 millio. dollars in the 3rd.
This post was edited on 7/15/24 at 11:09 am
Posted on 7/15/24 at 11:19 am to BayTiger13
quote:
Back as in went into the portal from last years team and might decide to come back to LSU?
Not in the portal and wasn’t on the team last year.
Posted on 7/15/24 at 11:26 am to Asleepinthecove
quote:
Not in the portal and wasn’t on the team last year.
Paul Skenes?
Posted on 7/15/24 at 11:33 am to bradygolf98
quote:
Paul Skenes?
I wish, but sadly, no.
This post was edited on 7/15/24 at 11:34 am
Posted on 7/15/24 at 11:35 am to Asleepinthecove
quote:
Not in the portal and wasn’t on the team last year.
Dallas Dale is the only name i can muster that fits this
Posted on 7/15/24 at 11:38 am to Hester Carries
quote:
Dallas Dale is the only name i can muster that fits this
Dallas Dale entered the portal on June 5 and committed to USF on 7/13 saying he was "Going Home"
Posted on 7/15/24 at 11:39 am to Hester Carries
Didn’t he go to South Florida recently?
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