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GOP Early Voting v GOP Election Day Voting
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:35 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:35 am
I have seen tons of outlets reporting that GOP early voting is blowing away prior turnouts. Because those numbers are way up, many people seem to think that some of these swing states will be blowouts because republicans historically show up on election day. I am wondering how the large GOP early voting will affect the ultimate election day turnout though. In other words, if the republican base early voted 2x as much as in 2020, you cannot expect anywhere near as much election day turnout. Has anyone seen any information/data on this?
10
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:36 am to LordLouisiana
The Republican base did not vote 2x what they did in 2020. They actually fell short in most states.
The difference is Dems didnt early vote.
All indications are, nearly 5 hours in, that they arent showing up on Election Day either.
The difference is Dems didnt early vote.
All indications are, nearly 5 hours in, that they arent showing up on Election Day either.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:37 am to LordLouisiana
Early voting is going to be down overall (I think) because of the post-COVID reversions.
A lot of states don't allow mass absentee/early voting with drop boxes and the like in this cycle.
A lot of states don't allow mass absentee/early voting with drop boxes and the like in this cycle.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:37 am to LordLouisiana
It’s not really the increase in Republicans in early voting that makes me think Trump will win.
It’s the decrease in Democrat early votes.
It’s the decrease in Democrat early votes.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:38 am to anc
My concern has been the early vote eating into the day of vote. Which is why it is so important to continue to urge voters to get out and vote today. Basically all the prep has been completed, it's a winning gameplan, you just have to show up and run the plays now.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:40 am to LordLouisiana
I said the same thing. But was told I was wrong. So I guess if a million voted early and a million voted on Election Day last time, and 2 million voted early this go around then 1 million is still voting on Election Day.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:41 am to LordLouisiana
If the date is accurate, the change from 2020 is not that R's had significantly more early votes this year...it's that D's had significantly less.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:41 am to LordLouisiana
I don't think that very much can be taken away from this.
Trump's marching orders in 2020 were to vote on election day. This year there was no clear directive.
Trump's marching orders in 2020 were to vote on election day. This year there was no clear directive.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:41 am to anc
quote:
The Republican base did not vote 2x what they did in 2020. They actually fell short in most states.
The difference is Dems didnt early vote.
All indications are, nearly 5 hours in, that they arent showing up on Election Day either.
This - Republicans seem to have held steady compared to 2020 - Democrats - who traditionally vote early - have fallen off a cliff - and as of right now - it doesn't look like they're showing up for day of voting either.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:43 am to Alt26
Dem Optimism down; Republicans up; watch early break of independents. If independents shift Trump by a couple of basis points (which i suspect) watch result.
Independents are not, generally, responsive to polling. Trump base steady, Biden base down from 2020.
Independents are not, generally, responsive to polling. Trump base steady, Biden base down from 2020.
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 10:44 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:44 am to anc
quote:
The difference is Dems didn't early vote.
This. 100% All the numbers are that Republicans are ahead and the assumption is because they voted more than last time. Thats not true. It's the same or less.
The difference is caused by a LACK of democratic voters. They voted far less than before. Will they show up on election day, who knows. But history would say this is a bad sign for democrats.
Said another way, Early favoring often favors democrats enough to withstand the fact Republicans vote more on Election day. If that pattern holds, Democrats are in real trouble. They are either flat out behind, or have far less margin than the 2020 victory. In EVERY SINGLE SWING STATE.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:44 am to LordLouisiana
Florida, one of the only states that drops real-time data is showing that as of before Noon, R's have already voted up 90+ percent of the entire state's Democratic registration.
The R base is 1000% turning out for this election and in all of the swing states that base has grown from 2020
The R base is 1000% turning out for this election and in all of the swing states that base has grown from 2020
Posted on 11/5/24 at 10:51 am to TackySweater
quote:
I said the same thing. But was told I was wrong. So I guess if a million voted early and a million voted on Election Day last time, and 2 million voted early this go around then 1 million is still voting on Election Day.
Watch this video (it's short)
LINK
Embedded is a graph from Pennsylvania comparing 2024 and 2020. You'll see the GOP returned ~580k mail in ballots in 2020. They've returned ~590k in 2024.
Now compare that to the D numbers. 1.6M returned in 2020 compared to 1.1M returned in 2024. The net change is R +10k/D-600k
That suggest R's are not "canibalizing" their election day vote. It's that D's have a TON of ground to make up today relative to where they started on election day 2020 (D's won PA by less than 100k despite an ED "head start" of over 1M "early" votes. Today they started with a "head start" of 400k)
This post was edited on 11/5/24 at 10:53 am
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:03 am to bird35
quote:This, but I still expect the election day turnout to be a bit lower because of so many people early voting. It was more in fashion this time around.
It’s not really the increase in Republicans in early voting that makes me think Trump will win.
It’s the decrease in Democrat early votes.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:04 am to Alt26
That all makes sense. It’s the huge increase in R early votes that is what could be a problem for ED votes.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:04 am to LordLouisiana
Louisiana shows a good example of the difference between 2020 and 2024 early voting.
2020
Dem 436K
Rep 368K
Other 183K
Tot 986K
2024
Dem 352K
Rep 435K
Other 188K
Tot 975K
41 percent of registered republicans voted early and only 31 percent of registered democrats voted early.
In 2020 those percentages were 37 percent and 35 percent.
2020
Dem 436K
Rep 368K
Other 183K
Tot 986K
2024
Dem 352K
Rep 435K
Other 188K
Tot 975K
41 percent of registered republicans voted early and only 31 percent of registered democrats voted early.
In 2020 those percentages were 37 percent and 35 percent.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:08 am to blueboy
quote:Again, the early voting is the exact same or less than it was in 2020 for Republicans.
This, but I still expect the election day turnout to be a bit lower because of so many people early voting. It was more in fashion this time around.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:19 am to LordLouisiana
Early voting in my deep red district has been a long wait all week….i got in and out of my local pricinct today in 5 mins….but I timed it between morning and lunch rush.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:23 am to LordLouisiana
It is super anecdotal, but I waited in line for over 2 hours in 2020. I waited less than two minutes today. I vote in a blue precinct which turned out big for Joe Biden. There’s no big turnout for Kamala on Election Day in my neighborhood.
Posted on 11/5/24 at 11:23 am to TackySweater
quote:
That all makes sense. It’s the huge increase in R early votes that is what could be a problem for ED votes.
I think that is what you are missing. There is not a huge increase in R early votes. For example the increase from 2020 to 2024 in Penn. was just 10k. It's the HUGE DECREASE in D early votes from 2020 to 2024 that is (or should be) the concern for D's. In 2020 The R's in PA cut a 1.1M early D "lead" to a final result of D +100k with the R ED turnout.
If R's in PA turnout today in the EXACT SAME numbers they did in 2020 and D's turn out today in the EXACT SAME numbers the did in 2020, then the R ED vote should (in theory) well exceed the D's current 400k lead in PA.
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