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Lonzo Ball's projection - 4 years/$100 million (John Hollinger)

Posted on 7/17/21 at 8:36 am
Posted by hendersonshands
Univ. of Louisiana Ragin Cajuns
Member since Oct 2007
160105 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 8:36 am
Athletic - Paywall

quote:

There’s a lot of buzz that Lonzo Ball may be available, including recent reporting from The Athletic’s Shams Charania, and that could offer an opportunity to get a starting-caliber, 23-year-old point guard in the free-agent market for a needy team. Obviously, the Knicks are the first place to start because they’re always the first place to start with free agents, but teams like Chicago, Dallas, Miami or Toronto could all be players here. (And if we want to get crazy, how about a Lonzo-Lowry sign-and-trade?)

The idea that Ball can’t shoot is now officially tired; he made 37.8 percent of his 3s at a high volume and shot 78.1 percent from the line last year, and is at 35.3 percent career from 3. The bigger misgiving is about his shot creation inside the arc and his still-iffy ability to run pick-and-roll in the half court. Ball can guard the position and is gifted in transition, but he works best with another perimeter shot creator.

As a result, teams are likely to pump the brakes well short of a max contract on Ball. Something in the range of four years and $100 million seems a more likely ceiling given the offensive concerns; that’s already spendy for somebody who can be the third-best player on a good team but probably no more than that.
Posted by PUB
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2017
18317 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 8:43 am to
$25 Million/year for some half a-- NBA player. Another example of what is wrong with Pro Sports
Posted by TigerinATL
Member since Feb 2005
61583 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 8:44 am to
Hopefully it ends up being Chicago’s problem.
Posted by Fun Bunch
New Orleans
Member since May 2008
116324 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 8:45 am to
Hollinger is always wrong on these. Way wrong.
Posted by SlowFlowPro
Simple Solutions to Complex Probs
Member since Jan 2004
423493 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 9:12 am to
quote:

Another example of what is wrong with Pro Sports



please explain
Posted by A Menace to Sobriety
Member since Jun 2018
29174 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 9:22 am to
If he wants $25 million/year, then bye bye. The absolute most I'd give for someone like him is maybe $16-18 million. He's not even close to being worth $25 million.
Posted by NOSHAU
Member since Feb 2012
11973 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 9:35 am to
quote:

Hollinger is always wrong on these. Way wrong.


Agree. Probably why he is not in the NBA any longer. I do not see Ball getting that much, but if he does, it better be from someone other than the Pels.
Posted by Bronc
Member since Sep 2018
12646 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 9:43 am to
Hollinger didn’t say he expects Ball to get 25mil/4yrs, he said that is where he would put the absolute ceiling someone might pay. So the title of thread is a bit misleading there.

And the only team I could see throwing that kind of money out is probably NY. I think it would be a huge mistake but if they feel they are going to strike out on bigger names Lonzo makes sense as a backup plan. And 20+ feels like the number that we assuredly walk away from.
Posted by CP3forMVP
Member since Nov 2010
14948 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 10:25 am to
25 a year? Absolutely not. Runaway from that as fast as you can.
Posted by DallasTiger45
Member since May 2012
8445 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 10:33 am to
His projection is based solely on an analytic formula, which he states multiple times in the article likely won’t be correct due to things that formula can’t pick up.

Like he has Norm Powell for 12.5 Mil or something a year, which he states is extremely light. And I agree, norm Powell will get like 18 mil at least.
Posted by Mad Scientist26
Member since Jul 2018
1950 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 10:58 am to
If he can get 25M a year then go for him. I just don’t want the Pels to do it. Hopefully, we can get something from him leaving tho.
Posted by Brettesaurus Rex
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2009
38259 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 11:37 am to
I think that would be the absolute max we match. And even then if we do, we probably try to trade before those later higher years.
Posted by NawlinsTiger9
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
34957 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 11:44 am to
quote:

4 years/$100 million




Farewell, Lonzo.
Posted by Townedrunkard
Member since Jan 2019
8983 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 11:51 am to
Well we are dealing with the GM that overpaid Steven Adams by around 8 million a year so it wouldn’t shock me in least if he matched a contract for Lonzo at 25 a year. That’d be about 8-10 more than he should get.
Posted by Sheep
Neither here nor there
Member since Jun 2007
19537 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 12:12 pm to
quote:

4 years/$100 million


SeinfeldI'mOut.gif
Posted by GOP_Tiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
17986 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 12:41 pm to
Here ya go.



I didn't watch enough of Powell this season to put a good number on him. How would you compare his value to Lonzo's? Who is worth more?
This post was edited on 7/17/21 at 12:42 pm
Posted by Pendulum
Member since Jan 2009
7058 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 1:16 pm to
Nah, I think the ceiling is 21 for him. It's really 20 but I guess you give another mil to give him a victory. 25? Nahhhhh
Posted by 3PieceSpicy
Metairie
Member since Jan 2021
6278 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 2:13 pm to
Yup, I don’t trust Griff until he proves himself otherwise. I have very low expectations this offseason.
Posted by tigersmanager
Member since Jun 2010
7492 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 2:17 pm to
I would take Powell over Lonzo if Lonzo is getting 25 but Powell is more of a SG than Lonzo in my opinion
Posted by brmark70816
Atlanta, GA
Member since Feb 2011
9830 posts
Posted on 7/17/21 at 2:44 pm to
quote:

I would take Powell over Lonzo if Lonzo is getting 25 but Powell is more of a SG than Lonzo in my opinion



I don't know if the Knicks would go after both. The Knicks are poised for a hell of an offseason. They have a ton of cap space (50M+), plus two late 1sts. Also, they probably want to dump Ntilikina, Toppin and Knox. The only FA they might want to retain is Noel. It could be a drastically different looking team..

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