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re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks

Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:55 am to
Posted by Brummy
Central, LA
Member since Oct 2009
4514 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:55 am to
quote:

Are we gonna have to look at this stupid Jack Black gif all hurricane season?

Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
120433 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:03 am to
quote:

As mentioned, stronger means more west and less north. That could lead to a later turn.


Not always true
Posted by cajuncarguy
On the road...Again!
Member since Jun 2013
3135 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:04 am to
But because the the current weather patterns it’s projected to be true for this storm.
Posted by jkylejohnson
Alexandria
Member since Dec 2016
14021 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:09 am to
Our friends going to Destin with us next week are already wanting to cancel the trip Wussies
Posted by Adam4848
LA
Member since Apr 2006
19015 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:18 am to


Has this been posted yet
Posted by djangochained
Gardere
Member since Jul 2013
19054 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:20 am to
I want to eat her arse so bad
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
146214 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:23 am to
Wonder how this will affect the weather in ATL next week
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
90891 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:30 am to
2,1
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
71431 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:50 am to
quote:

The cone moves every update. And if I'm not mistaken the cone has 95% certainty.


How can both of these be true?



It's based on current data.

Next update they'll take the new data and positions and make a new cone. It can go outside the cone but the odds are low.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35652 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:54 am to
Duke is all like, the storm is hauling arse and it won't be able to strengthen much.

Elsa like "lol Duke, you still don't know shite"
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
54913 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:02 am to
quote:

Duke is all like, the storm is hauling arse and it won't be able to strengthen much.

Elsa like "lol Duke, you still don't know shite"

That crafty Elsa fooled everyone.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35652 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:04 am to
To be fair, that recon showed a fricking messy storm that is heavily north loaded on wind. Just underestimated the power of that Northside.
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
93773 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:32 am to
Maybe we should listen a little more closely to what the HWRF says sometimes. instead of just tossing it aside like some crazy conspiracy theorist.

I mean, again, it was absolutely 100% accurate with Laura all the while we sat here and said “oh, that’s crazy, that’ll never happen. Silly model.”
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19822 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:32 am to
quote:


To be fair, that recon showed a fricking messy storm that is heavily north loaded on wind. Just underestimated the power of that Northside.


Hopefully, the next mission can get a better sampling of the system. The 1st mission wasn't in very long but the data didn't really support the surface obs, which is odd b/c it's usually the other way round. NHC going with 995mb which is lower than both the 06z HWRF & HMON.

Outflow looks good, there are convective burst in the developing core and radial bands, and plenty of lightning strikes being detected, all of which points to a strengthening system.

Obviously, future track is a big deal but if this misses the islands to the south then it will also be passing over some of the warmest water. It tracks through the islands then it comes out weaker and into cooler waters.

Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
71431 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Duke is all like, the storm is hauling arse and it won't be able to strengthen much.

Elsa like "lol Duke, you still don't know shite"




Well, in fairness intensity is much harder to forecast than cone. The forecast last night said it would never be an H.

Cone is usually right with Katrina being a notable exception. NOLA wasn't in the path until the Friday before landfall.
Posted by adamau
Member since Oct 2020
3534 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:34 am to
quote:

I want to eat her arse so bad


Well, she's a cartoon....so
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
146214 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:42 am to
quote:

Well, she's a cartoon....so



Anna Faith isnt

Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
99192 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:50 am to
quote:

I want to eat her arse so bad


Sadly, Anna Faith has not aged well. A little too much cosmetic surgery...will not post pics because I don't want to kill your memories.
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35652 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:50 am to
Well the HWRF was slow on this stage. It's been cooking it up once in the Caribbean, which is looking like an even better bet with the stronger system.

rds is right about the recon bit too. It doesn't really match up with the surface obs and what we're seeing on sat. Which is why the NHC went 995 I'd imagine.

Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19822 posts
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:01 am to
12z GFS is weaker with no real strengthening before running the system along Cuba.
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