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re: TS Elsa - Heading off to the NE, Then Shut the Tropics Down for a Couple of Weeks
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:55 am to PetroBabich
Posted on 7/2/21 at 8:55 am to PetroBabich
quote:
Are we gonna have to look at this stupid Jack Black gif all hurricane season?
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:03 am to Bestbank Tiger
quote:
As mentioned, stronger means more west and less north. That could lead to a later turn.
Not always true
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:04 am to Cosmo
But because the the current weather patterns it’s projected to be true for this storm.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:09 am to cajuncarguy
Our friends going to Destin with us next week are already wanting to cancel the trip Wussies
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:18 am to jkylejohnson
Has this been posted yet
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:20 am to Adam4848
I want to eat her arse so bad
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:23 am to jkylejohnson
Wonder how this will affect the weather in ATL next week
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:50 am to tigersbh
quote:
The cone moves every update. And if I'm not mistaken the cone has 95% certainty.
How can both of these be true?
It's based on current data.
Next update they'll take the new data and positions and make a new cone. It can go outside the cone but the odds are low.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 9:54 am to Bestbank Tiger
Duke is all like, the storm is hauling arse and it won't be able to strengthen much.
Elsa like "lol Duke, you still don't know shite"
Elsa like "lol Duke, you still don't know shite"
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:02 am to Duke
quote:
Duke is all like, the storm is hauling arse and it won't be able to strengthen much.
Elsa like "lol Duke, you still don't know shite"
That crafty Elsa fooled everyone.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:04 am to LegendInMyMind
To be fair, that recon showed a fricking messy storm that is heavily north loaded on wind. Just underestimated the power of that Northside.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:32 am to Duke
Maybe we should listen a little more closely to what the HWRF says sometimes. instead of just tossing it aside like some crazy conspiracy theorist.
I mean, again, it was absolutely 100% accurate with Laura all the while we sat here and said “oh, that’s crazy, that’ll never happen. Silly model.”
I mean, again, it was absolutely 100% accurate with Laura all the while we sat here and said “oh, that’s crazy, that’ll never happen. Silly model.”
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:32 am to Duke
quote:
To be fair, that recon showed a fricking messy storm that is heavily north loaded on wind. Just underestimated the power of that Northside.
Hopefully, the next mission can get a better sampling of the system. The 1st mission wasn't in very long but the data didn't really support the surface obs, which is odd b/c it's usually the other way round. NHC going with 995mb which is lower than both the 06z HWRF & HMON.
Outflow looks good, there are convective burst in the developing core and radial bands, and plenty of lightning strikes being detected, all of which points to a strengthening system.
Obviously, future track is a big deal but if this misses the islands to the south then it will also be passing over some of the warmest water. It tracks through the islands then it comes out weaker and into cooler waters.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:34 am to Duke
quote:
Duke is all like, the storm is hauling arse and it won't be able to strengthen much.
Elsa like "lol Duke, you still don't know shite"
Well, in fairness intensity is much harder to forecast than cone. The forecast last night said it would never be an H.
Cone is usually right with Katrina being a notable exception. NOLA wasn't in the path until the Friday before landfall.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:34 am to djangochained
quote:
I want to eat her arse so bad
Well, she's a cartoon....so
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:42 am to adamau
quote:
Well, she's a cartoon....so
Anna Faith isnt
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:50 am to djangochained
quote:
I want to eat her arse so bad
Sadly, Anna Faith has not aged well. A little too much cosmetic surgery...will not post pics because I don't want to kill your memories.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 10:50 am to Prominentwon
Well the HWRF was slow on this stage. It's been cooking it up once in the Caribbean, which is looking like an even better bet with the stronger system.
rds is right about the recon bit too. It doesn't really match up with the surface obs and what we're seeing on sat. Which is why the NHC went 995 I'd imagine.
rds is right about the recon bit too. It doesn't really match up with the surface obs and what we're seeing on sat. Which is why the NHC went 995 I'd imagine.
Posted on 7/2/21 at 11:01 am to Duke
12z GFS is weaker with no real strengthening before running the system along Cuba.
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