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Message
Rising lumber prices (what’s next and who’s to blame?)
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:25 am
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:25 am
First, this is a supply chain issue. Covid has raised demand with home improvements, low interest rates and bored Americans.
Second, supply isn’t the issue...America has always been rich in natural resources, especially lumber. In fact, the government snowballed our oversupply in the 80’s and 90’s by paying tree farmers to plant pine. Now the South is flush with pine. The reasoning behind this wasn’t to boost lumber business. It was to boost other commodities.
Third, when you pay people to sit at home on their asses, they don’t go work manual labor and transport. Raising the prices of lumber. This is Biden’s fault.
Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
2. The tree farmers (sawmills can pick and choose who is cheapest)
Who is benefitting?
Lowe’s, Home Depot, and every sawmill.
Steel is next, followed by every single metal.
- a tree farmer.
Second, supply isn’t the issue...America has always been rich in natural resources, especially lumber. In fact, the government snowballed our oversupply in the 80’s and 90’s by paying tree farmers to plant pine. Now the South is flush with pine. The reasoning behind this wasn’t to boost lumber business. It was to boost other commodities.
Third, when you pay people to sit at home on their asses, they don’t go work manual labor and transport. Raising the prices of lumber. This is Biden’s fault.
Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
2. The tree farmers (sawmills can pick and choose who is cheapest)
Who is benefitting?
Lowe’s, Home Depot, and every sawmill.
Steel is next, followed by every single metal.
- a tree farmer.
30
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:29 am to The Levee
Georgia Pacific raised their prices when interest rates when to crap. That's why. They aren't paying tree farmers any more than what they were paying before prices went up.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:29 am to The Levee
quote:Are you talking timber or lumber? Yes, plenty of timber but you pay through the nose for lumber and that's if you can even find a 2x6. So lumber supply is definitely the issue for a myriad of reasons relating to Covid
Second, supply isn’t the issue..
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:29 am to The Levee
you are correct
a friend of mine sells pine on some land he has. he said he ain't making shite off these high prices
a friend of mine sells pine on some land he has. he said he ain't making shite off these high prices
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:30 am to The Levee
Steel is not next, it was before wood prices and still climbing. We've seen steel prices rise over 60% since last August. Word is it may flatten out over the summer.... we'll see.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:31 am to The Levee
My understanding is that it is a lack of available sawmill capacity to handle all of this due to closures over the years.
Until demand drops or capacity increases, we’re fricked.
Until demand drops or capacity increases, we’re fricked.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:32 am to The Levee
I got my chips on:
1. Trump
2. Systemic racism
3. Capitalism
1. Trump
2. Systemic racism
3. Capitalism
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:35 am to The Levee
quote:
Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
no shite.
i’m in process of building a wooden privacy fence.
gonna cost me about 5 times what it would have if i had built it a year ago.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:38 am to The Levee
quote:Epoch Times
“The supply chain for residential construction is tight, particularly regarding the cost and availability of lumber, appliances, and other building materials,” NAHB Chairman Chuck Fowke said in a statement.
At the onset of the health crisis, “the mills stopped producing,” said Dustin Jalbert, senior economist and lumber industry specialist at Fastmarkets in Burlington, Massachusetts. “As soon as they saw 20 million unemployed, they shut down production.”
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:40 am to The Levee
Lumber has not seen a price increase outside of fuel cost associated with its production. These companies are ramping up prices because they can.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:42 am to The Levee
someone read the WSJ article
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:42 am to The Levee
quote:
First, this is a supply chain issue
They never stopped at the OSB mills around here even with skeleton crews. Just stock piled and releasing as they want.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:43 am to The Levee
Built a house with a friend 9 years ago. Going through some old papers yesterday and found my invoice for the lumber we bought from Lowes.
I purchased 119 4x8 sheets of 7/16” OSB for $810 after my 5% discount.
Today those same 119 sheets would run just shy of $5k.
I purchased 119 4x8 sheets of 7/16” OSB for $810 after my 5% discount.
Today those same 119 sheets would run just shy of $5k.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:46 am to The Levee
Add in...probably pretty easy to work house construction on a cash basis, so sitting at home collecting UI and getting a cash paying side gig....
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:51 am to The Levee
quote:
First, this is a supply chain issue. Covid has raised demand with home improvements, low interest rates and bored Americans.
Second, supply isn’t the issue...America has always been rich in natural resources, especially lumber. In fact, the government snowballed our oversupply in the 80’s and 90’s by paying tree farmers to plant pine. Now the South is flush with pine. The reasoning behind this wasn’t to boost lumber business. It was to boost other commodities.
Third, when you pay people to sit at home on their asses, they don’t go work manual labor and transport. Raising the prices of lumber. This is Biden’s fault.
Fourth, the people getting screwed in this deal are
1. The consumer
2. The tree farmers (sawmills can pick and choose who is cheapest)
Who is benefitting?
Lowe’s, Home Depot, and every sawmill.
Glut on Supply, bottleneck on process and some exterior factors pushing Demand unnaturally high?
I predict mill expansions and more mills being built.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 11:53 am to The Levee
quote:
Second, supply isn’t the issue
Seems to be, but you don't appear to be tracking the real supply. Trees are not in short supply, lumber is.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 12:00 pm to The Levee
I hear you, I have 40 acres planted in pines, might do OK with Chip-n-saw but you have to give a way pulpwood.
Posted on 5/3/21 at 12:10 pm to The Levee
Its artificial Demand gouging by the major retailers and everyone is following...
Mills only shut down for two weeks last year... they arent behind on anything. Its not transportation cost either as their prices havent gone up. Tree farmers arent getting the money either...
This is 100% Obama/Biden to price out the consumer and drive up the cost of housing...
check out the price of wooden bats... they arent going up...
its all targeted to building/making things... creating a shortage that isnt there... metal is up, lumber is up, food cost are up. chlorine for pools is up... there is no shortage...
Ive called 27 lumber mills in the northwest and northeast, they didnt shut down... the markup is at Retail.. Home Depot/Lowes etc...
I run a shop. I buy 10k in lumber every two weeks..
I even called the news to run a story on what Ive found, you know the answer i got... this is 100% trying to put people out of business... That money home depot and lowes are making is going right back to the democrats pocket... dont buy from there, try and find a mill and buy direct or a small mom and pop shop if you can find one.. We have a McCoys nearby and I go there... they are 5$ less per board.. 2x4 is 6-7$... home depot is 12$
Home Depot and Lowes is not your friend... corporate is going to be on the side that they think is going to win.. right now they think that socialism is going to win...
Mills only shut down for two weeks last year... they arent behind on anything. Its not transportation cost either as their prices havent gone up. Tree farmers arent getting the money either...
This is 100% Obama/Biden to price out the consumer and drive up the cost of housing...
check out the price of wooden bats... they arent going up...
its all targeted to building/making things... creating a shortage that isnt there... metal is up, lumber is up, food cost are up. chlorine for pools is up... there is no shortage...
Ive called 27 lumber mills in the northwest and northeast, they didnt shut down... the markup is at Retail.. Home Depot/Lowes etc...
I run a shop. I buy 10k in lumber every two weeks..
I even called the news to run a story on what Ive found, you know the answer i got... this is 100% trying to put people out of business... That money home depot and lowes are making is going right back to the democrats pocket... dont buy from there, try and find a mill and buy direct or a small mom and pop shop if you can find one.. We have a McCoys nearby and I go there... they are 5$ less per board.. 2x4 is 6-7$... home depot is 12$
Home Depot and Lowes is not your friend... corporate is going to be on the side that they think is going to win.. right now they think that socialism is going to win...
Posted on 5/3/21 at 12:13 pm to The Levee
Posted on 5/3/21 at 12:19 pm to The Levee
copper, steel, PVC are up since last year as well....
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