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re: Lonzo Ball is now at 40% from 3. Check in here to eat crow. I am.
Posted on 2/23/21 at 1:24 pm to GynoSandberg
Posted on 2/23/21 at 1:24 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
He’s a $20 mil player in his current state imo
No. He isn't. That would be an overpay for his skillset he currently has, which is an off ball guy without the ability to create off the dribble that shoots great set shot 3's, and plays good defense on the opposing teams PG/SG.
I have no doubt that someone will give him $20M/yr, and it's really not that much of an overpay, but that's not what his going rate should be. If his name was Lonzo anything but Ball, and he was drafted in the 2nd round instead of 2nd overall, he wouldn't be sniffing $20M.
Here's some contract from the draft class before Lonzo:
Jaylen Brown $23M - took a huge step after signing the extension once they started giving him starter minutes. Lots of people thought it was an overpay.
Buddy Hield $22M - regrettable contract. no defense, all he does is shoot 3's.
Jamal Murray - MAX, which i don't agree with
Taurean Prince $12M - 3&D with no offensive game.
Malik Beasley $13M - did nothing first 2 years, given a chance the next two and showed he's a scorer, and shot well from 3.
Caris Levert $16M - great scorer
Dejounte Murray $14M - a legit PG that can defend, score and rebound, not a good 3 point shooter.
Brodgon $19M - score, facilitate, defend
Justise Winslow $13M - was averaging 12/5/4 playing great defense, shooting 38% from 3 for 2 years before he signed his deal in year 4
So tell me where Lonzo fits in with all of those recent contracts and the skillset he offers. Is Lonzo's game more similar to Brown/Murray, or Prince/Winslow? Is he a scorer like LeVert and Beasley?
This post was edited on 2/23/21 at 1:25 pm
0
Posted on 2/23/21 at 1:28 pm to Bronc
quote:So you expect 4 FTs a game from him before you would be happy? BI and Zion are the only ones on the team above 2.3 per game and the Pels are #4 in the NBA in FTA per game. So, would you prefer he take drives away from Zion and BI in order to do that?
Now if Lonzo could turn that 1.3 into something like 4.0 and get his points per drive up to even NAW levels(32% for Lonzo, 49% for NAW with Lonzo turning it over at about the same rate and both having the same ast numbers on drives) that would turn into something perhaps meaningful.
Posted on 2/23/21 at 1:33 pm to TeddyPadillac
It’s not your assessment, it’s your lack of foresight
Posted on 2/23/21 at 1:37 pm to NOSHAU
quote:
So you expect 4 FTs a game from him before you would be happy? BI and Zion are the only ones on the team above 2.3 per game and the Pels are #4 in the NBA in FTA per game. So, would you prefer he take drives away from Zion and BI in order to do that?
It’s not some hard and fast number, I think if you are not attempting to read my posts in this thread disingenuously, it is clear what I want to see out of Lonzo, which is him to turn into, at a minimum, an average offensive generator given the touches he commands and the role we would be paying him to fill. Otherwise, if he is basically just going to be a touch heavy spot up shooter in the half court with above average defense, I don’t see him as a 20 million plus player for this team, and I actually worry about him holding back our long term potential based on his style of play.
Basically, show me at least some meaningful growth toward being an offensive generator for himself and others in a half court setting and I’ll feel a lot more confident trusting some of you guys wanting to throw him 20 million plus based on the potential of him becoming these things
This post was edited on 2/23/21 at 1:39 pm
Posted on 2/23/21 at 1:58 pm to Bronc
I’d still try and use Lonzo in a big fish trade if possible. Trading him for crappy assets tho is dumb
Posted on 2/23/21 at 2:00 pm to Macintosh504
quote:Yea, I said the other day quite a few of us(myself included) whiffed big time earlier in the season begging Griff to trade Lonzo for literally anything.
Trading him for crappy assets tho is dumb
He now would have to have quite a bit of value in a trade. If we're worried someone will offer $20mil+ in RFA, then surely someone would be willing to party with solid assets to get him as well.
Posted on 2/23/21 at 2:36 pm to Bronc
quote:I don't disagree on the $20 million a year number. I would be more comfortable with something around $15-$16 million a year. I would think he will be targetting at least something in the range of Anunoby, Harris, or Bogdanovich, which is in the $18 million a year or more ballpark.
It’s not some hard and fast number, I think if you are not attempting to read my posts in this thread disingenuously, it is clear what I want to see out of Lonzo, which is him to turn into, at a minimum, an average offensive generator given the touches he commands and the role we would be paying him to fill. Otherwise, if he is basically just going to be a touch heavy spot up shooter in the half court with above average defense, I don’t see him as a 20 million plus player for this team, and I actually worry about him holding back our long term potential based on his style of play.
Basically, show me at least some meaningful growth toward being an offensive generator for himself and others in a half court setting and I’ll feel a lot more confident trusting some of you guys wanting to throw him 20 million plus based on the potential of him becoming these things
This post was edited on 2/23/21 at 2:38 pm
Posted on 2/23/21 at 3:01 pm to NOSHAU
I think he'll want whatever the highest price is he can get, obviously, but despite what I have been saying up until now about 20 mil+, you might be onto something...
And I'm actually about to post a thread because everyone, myself included, seems to be making assumptions about what the likely FA market for Lonzo will actually look like, what he will likely get in the way of offers, and after diving in I think my position is changing a decent bit.
And I'm actually about to post a thread because everyone, myself included, seems to be making assumptions about what the likely FA market for Lonzo will actually look like, what he will likely get in the way of offers, and after diving in I think my position is changing a decent bit.
This post was edited on 2/23/21 at 3:02 pm
Posted on 2/23/21 at 3:21 pm to NOSHAU
If he’s truly a ~38% 3P shooter and a guy who can guard multiple positions consistently, you pay the $20m per bc you can pencil in that skillset night in and night out. At that’s not even considering the possibility of improving elsewhere
Nothing says that’s he’s gotta be your third option at that price if he brings consistency doing the other things well. Matter of fact, you hope it ends up that he isn’t your third guy. You want Kira to elevate. Maybe NAW does something unexpected. New guys come in via Draft picks, trades, free agency. If Ball can bring consistency and do what he’s doing now, it’s worth it to me
Will he accept the role? Who knows? Will he eventually want out? Who knows? Will it end up being an overpay? Who knows? This is the cost of doing business in the NBA - our franchise knows more than anyone how quickly things change with a player
Nothing says that’s he’s gotta be your third option at that price if he brings consistency doing the other things well. Matter of fact, you hope it ends up that he isn’t your third guy. You want Kira to elevate. Maybe NAW does something unexpected. New guys come in via Draft picks, trades, free agency. If Ball can bring consistency and do what he’s doing now, it’s worth it to me
Will he accept the role? Who knows? Will he eventually want out? Who knows? Will it end up being an overpay? Who knows? This is the cost of doing business in the NBA - our franchise knows more than anyone how quickly things change with a player
Posted on 2/23/21 at 3:50 pm to Lester Earl
quote:
It’s not your assessment, it’s your lack of foresight
So you can see the future and i cannot. gotcha.
I don't have a lack of foresight, you just don't agree with it, and at no point have you given any reasoning into your foresight other than "well he's 23, so he can get better"
You act like i hate Lonzo Ball and that it pains me to admit he plays well, and that is simply not true.
Here's some of those hot takes I had
before the season started:
quote:
if he can do what he did last year (bubble not included) and become a legit defender, he can get $16-20M/yr. If he does what he did last year, he's in the $13-15M/yr range. There is no way anyone is giving him $25M/yr.
when he was playing terrible and everyone wanted to trade him:
quote:
quote:
Lonzo and a 2nd for Aminu is the deal I do. Makes sense for both sides post Fultz injury
I know we all like to hate Lonzo, but he's worth more than that.
but yeah, i'm bias against him and think he's a terrible basketball player that we should trade for nothing or only offer MLE money too. Lonzo has some serious low lows, and yeah many of us get over emotional about them, but he's shown enough the last 2 years to prove that he is a legit 3 point threat and a good defender, and that's worth a 4/$77M deal.
I'm not ok giving him $20-25M/yr. He's not worth that.
I really don't like the $16-19M/yr range either, but i can agree that he's likely worth that. Keeping Lonzo means developing draft picks would become very important to our success while we wait for this supposed big trade down the line. Kira at PG, NAW as a 6th man scorer, and we need a stretch 4.
Posted on 2/23/21 at 3:53 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
If he’s truly a ~38% 3P shooter and a guy who can guard multiple positions consistently, you pay the $20m per bc you can pencil in that skillset night in and night out.
He can't guard the SF position.
Name me a 3&D player that makes $20M/yr?
Posted on 2/23/21 at 3:58 pm to GynoSandberg
Here's the thing that also needs to be cautioned about the three-point shooting, so far this season Lonzo has taken only 13 threes under what would be considered tight coverage according to NBA.com Synergy tracking. Which amounts to 9.7% of his threes.
Compare that to someone like Redick(57% of his shots under tight coverage) or Ingram(47%), or even Tim Hardaway Jr(25%) and something emerges:
Teams are still giving him open threes, so his numbers right now suggest at least some regression if teams decide to stop slacking off him(and his wide-open three percentage at 37%, suggests this will happen as well, since most good shooters, like Ingram at 50% on wide-open threes, Redick at 48%, are basically money in wide-open scenarios and that both suggest sounder fundamentals and buffs up their numbers). Which strongly cautions against taking his current percentages at face value until we see what his efficiency looks like if defenses adjust.
Compare that to someone like Redick(57% of his shots under tight coverage) or Ingram(47%), or even Tim Hardaway Jr(25%) and something emerges:
Teams are still giving him open threes, so his numbers right now suggest at least some regression if teams decide to stop slacking off him(and his wide-open three percentage at 37%, suggests this will happen as well, since most good shooters, like Ingram at 50% on wide-open threes, Redick at 48%, are basically money in wide-open scenarios and that both suggest sounder fundamentals and buffs up their numbers). Which strongly cautions against taking his current percentages at face value until we see what his efficiency looks like if defenses adjust.
Posted on 2/23/21 at 4:16 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
So you can see the future and i cannot. gotcha.
I mean i would at least take you serious if you werent pimping guys that matured in a way that you don't think Lonzo can. In fact, much more extreme maturations by guys like VanVleet and Jerami Grant.
This is your quote; those guys were nothing at 23 lol.
quote:
The difference between a 23 year and a 25 year old that have both been in the league for 4 years is negligible. You should have a very clear idea of what both players are capable of at that point, and how much more they can improve.
Posted on 2/23/21 at 4:20 pm to Bronc
What is his % on contested 3P the last two seasons?
He’s taken 602 attempts as a Pel at 38%. Something like 47% from 3 this month. When do defenses adjust?
He does get open looks, but he also has a quick release. Some guys just have a knack for finding space without the ball, and the threat of others shooters and Zion on the floor certainly help
He’s taken 602 attempts as a Pel at 38%. Something like 47% from 3 this month. When do defenses adjust?
He does get open looks, but he also has a quick release. Some guys just have a knack for finding space without the ball, and the threat of others shooters and Zion on the floor certainly help
Posted on 2/23/21 at 4:27 pm to TeddyPadillac
quote:
He can't guard the SF position.
Ok? Do you expect him to?
quote:
Name me a 3&D player that makes $20M/yr?
I’ll ask ya again
Name me a 3&D player with these qualifiers from the last two seasons
- At least 38% on 600 or more 3PA
- Averages at least 6.4 APG
- averages at least 5.5 RPG
- averages at least 1.4 SPG
- 23 y/o or younger
Just answer the question without an excuse or some incoherent bullshite please
Posted on 2/23/21 at 4:32 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
He can't guard the SF position.
Ok? Do you expect him to?
If you don't that means you're expecting Ingram to do it, so yes, I'm expecting Lonzo to guard SFs. If he can't you probably need to move on so you can add a more versatile defender to the starting lineup.
This post was edited on 2/23/21 at 4:33 pm
Posted on 2/23/21 at 4:38 pm to GynoSandberg
quote:
What is his % on contested 3P the last two seasons?
He’s taken 602 attempts as a Pel at 38%. Something like 47% from 3 this month. When do defenses adjust?
He does get open looks, but he also has a quick release. Some guys just have a knack for finding space without the ball, and the threat of others shooters and Zion on the floor certainly help
35%
Which is not that bad by any means, but it's also such a low sample size I'm not sure you can do much with it. Common sense would tell you though that as defenses adjust, his percentages would fall somewhat.
I'd also suggest part of it probably has to do with the fact defenders aren't glued to him, and he doesn't shoot off screens a lot(or well). But I don't think that or the quick-release explains everything since Redick also has a quick release, so do a lot of quick shooters that seem to have a good portion of their shots contested.
Posted on 2/23/21 at 4:47 pm to Bronc
quote:
Which is not that bad by any means, but it's also such a low sample size I'm not sure you can do much with it. Common sense would tell you though that as defenses adjust, his percentages would fall somewhat.
Common sense also tells you a pass first player, which Lonzo is, will adjust to adjustments and find the open man.
Lonzo, as noted, went from shooting from the left side of his body to the right in less than 2 seasons here, without any healthy real off season.
Had he been with Vinson from jump, he might have a floater by now.
In short, we should get something in return for transforming his game if we don’t believe in him.
Posted on 2/23/21 at 4:53 pm to Bronc
quote:
35%
Which is not that bad by any means
not that bad?
If the general average % on 3pters league wide is 35-36%, I would think 35% on contested threes is much higher than league average, there for much better than "not that bad".
Posted on 2/23/21 at 4:55 pm to TigerinATL
I know he can guard some SFs
Saying he can’t guard em is quite the sweeping generalization huh?
Of course some guys can’t guard any position much less multiple
Saying he can’t guard em is quite the sweeping generalization huh?
Of course some guys can’t guard any position much less multiple
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