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re: The ATL Thread: Offseason
Posted on 11/24/20 at 8:21 pm to Hot Carl
Posted on 11/24/20 at 8:21 pm to Hot Carl
AA said today they are moving forward with the expectation that there won’t be a DH next season but they will maintain flexibility if that changes. May not be movement on a bat for a while.
1
Posted on 11/25/20 at 6:36 am to Broski
How about Chicago Whitehawks
Posted on 11/25/20 at 7:37 am to volfan30
If AA needs the DH to see the value in Ozuna, I’m assuming multiple NL GMs will too. So ozuna will wait for that development, right?
Posted on 11/25/20 at 7:37 am to Finkle is Einhorn
quote:
Turner may be the better option
Especially considering he can actually play defense and we probably won’t have a DH next year.
Posted on 11/25/20 at 8:05 am to bigpapamac
It amazes me that we're in free agency and don't have a resolution on the DH rule yet.
Posted on 11/25/20 at 8:15 am to dhuck20
quote:
If AA needs the DH to see the value in Ozuna, I’m assuming multiple NL GM will too.
Of course they will. He’s still VERY valuable in the NL, but not quite as valuable as he would be with the DH in the AL. I really don’t think that’s debatable. Certainly each NL GM will have different opinions on how much that matters relative to their respective teams.It may not matter much at all to most teams. But it does matter.
As a Braves fan, I hope we’re a team where it may not matter enough to not offer him close to what he’s looking for. His sheer presence in the middle of the lineup made everybody better—the lineup was better than the sum of its parts (missed Duvall when he went down, though. Even when he was struggling, just knowing that he could run into one at any time had an effect).
Sticking Ozuna in the 3-hole took the lineup from a 1 through 5/6 to a 1 through 9. Pitchers couldn’t afford to cruise through any ABs. They were throwing high leverage, high stress pitches that drained them both mentally and physically earlier than an outing against a different a different lineup would with the same number of pitches.
And he obviously clicked in the clubhouse, bringing contagious energy to the entire team, specifically with the young Latin guys. That was super important playing in front of no fans. However, that magic is not necessarily gonna be there again, especially with a 162 game schedule. We may have just captured lightning in a bottle this year, and it can’t be reproduced. So I can understand why AA would be hesitant to offer him a huge long-term deal without knowing about the future of the DH.
quote:
So ozuna will wait for that development, right?
Maybe, if he really wants to come back to Atlanta. Or he may want to be in Florida closer to his family in the Dominican and sign with the Rays. Or he may want to go to Boston to wear out the Green Monster. Them re-hiring Joey Cora so soon indicates to me that they’re ready to become players again and may open up the checkbook in a way that prices Atlanta and a lot of other clubs out.
This post was edited on 11/25/20 at 8:23 am
Posted on 11/25/20 at 8:22 am to Hot Carl
Ozuna is a defensive liability but you'd think he could be hidden a bit with Pache and Acuna roaming the other two outfield spots. Those two can cover a ton of ground.
Posted on 11/25/20 at 2:10 pm to dhuck20
Ozuna may project as the worst defender in the game based on what we saw of him last year. Remember the mess he made of the inning that Soroka got hurt in? If we had had a 162 game season with no DH like we were planning on when we signed him I think we could have seen some historically bad defensive metrics from him. We knew the shoulder was bad but it went far beyond that. The bat was so good that he still would have been valuable but having to put him in the outfield for 150 games would certainly take him out of play for a lot of NL teams I imagine.
Posted on 11/25/20 at 4:58 pm to volfan30
quote:
Ozuna may project as the worst defender in the game based on what we saw of him last year. Remember the mess he made of the inning that Soroka got hurt in? If we had had a 162 game season with no DH like we were planning on when we signed him I think we could have seen some historically bad defensive metrics from him
Yeah, his defense was shite, but LF defensive metrics don't matter as much, especially when he was putting up that kind of production at the plate.
If you're going to shite on what he would've done in the field over a 162 game season, then you can't cherry pick. You have to acknowledge that he was on pace for a 50+ hr, 100+ RBI season as well.
I think most would gladly make that trade for his deficiencies in the field.
This post was edited on 11/25/20 at 5:00 pm
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:39 am to Broski
I literally said “The bat was so good that he still would have been valuable”
He was worth -0.6 dWAR in 21 games.
That’s over a -4 dWAR pace if he had played 150 games out there. Just historically bad. Probably not sustainable to be that bad but he is easily a 2-3 loss defender based on the metrics and eye test.
He was on almost a 7 WAR offensive pace so he would have been very valuable even with the bad defense.
Neither number is likely sustainable over 162 as they are both historic.
If you figure he is a 5 oWAR guy and -2.3 dWAR guy then you are either a 5 WAR guy as a DH or a 2.7 WAR guy as a LF. That is a big difference for NL and AL teams.
He was worth -0.6 dWAR in 21 games.
That’s over a -4 dWAR pace if he had played 150 games out there. Just historically bad. Probably not sustainable to be that bad but he is easily a 2-3 loss defender based on the metrics and eye test.
He was on almost a 7 WAR offensive pace so he would have been very valuable even with the bad defense.
Neither number is likely sustainable over 162 as they are both historic.
If you figure he is a 5 oWAR guy and -2.3 dWAR guy then you are either a 5 WAR guy as a DH or a 2.7 WAR guy as a LF. That is a big difference for NL and AL teams.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 5:34 pm to volfan30
I really don't believe you watch the games, rather you just look at the spreadsheets afterwards. Everyone of your arguments is just copy/paste from FanGraphs it seems.
WAR (and you by extension) doesn't factor in what pitches the batter Ozuna is protecting sees, it also doesn't factor in how that player affects the clubhouse.
There's a happy medium between advanced stats and "eye test" for lack of a better phrase and you, and many others, constantly miss the mark on it, whether relying too far on one side or the other. Listen to Theo Epstein.
WAR (and you by extension) doesn't factor in what pitches the batter Ozuna is protecting sees, it also doesn't factor in how that player affects the clubhouse.
There's a happy medium between advanced stats and "eye test" for lack of a better phrase and you, and many others, constantly miss the mark on it, whether relying too far on one side or the other. Listen to Theo Epstein.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 6:18 pm to Broski
Well said.
Saber has its place, no doubt. But too many people are using it as a replacement for the eye test when it should be used as a supplement to the eye test, not as a replacement.
Saber has its place, no doubt. But too many people are using it as a replacement for the eye test when it should be used as a supplement to the eye test, not as a replacement.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 7:08 pm to Broski
I agree about not over relying on metrics
But I don’t think we should ignore that Ozunas 2020 production was an outlier and that the defense is virtually unplayable.
Potential upgrades are at 3rd and LF.
Sign Ozuna and I think we’d be done.
Don’t sign Ozuna and think we could get 2 of Turner / Joc / Brantley / Cruz for pretty similar money and way over shorter contracts.
I’m fine either way, but I’m not convinced that going the 2nd route wouldn’t make for a more complete team.
What I wont be happy with us if we don’t resign Ozuna and replace him with a Joc type and nothing else.
But I don’t think we should ignore that Ozunas 2020 production was an outlier and that the defense is virtually unplayable.
Potential upgrades are at 3rd and LF.
Sign Ozuna and I think we’d be done.
Don’t sign Ozuna and think we could get 2 of Turner / Joc / Brantley / Cruz for pretty similar money and way over shorter contracts.
I’m fine either way, but I’m not convinced that going the 2nd route wouldn’t make for a more complete team.
What I wont be happy with us if we don’t resign Ozuna and replace him with a Joc type and nothing else.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 7:27 pm to POCKET
quote:
Potential upgrades are at 3rd
No, we have Riley there. We're good.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 9:15 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
Yeah Riley is a great hitter with a career .288 OBP. I think the Braves have to think about trading Riley before he completely tanks his trade value. His defense at 3rd base has been pretty bad and his bat isn’t good enough for LF.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 9:29 pm to rebel of fortune
quote:
Yeah Riley is a great hitter with a career .288 OBP. I think the Braves have to think about trading Riley before he completely tanks his trade value. His defense at 3rd base has been pretty bad and his bat isn’t good enough for LF.
Riley had pretty much the same periphials this year that Ozuna had in '19. And we all know what Ozuna did this year. IOW, Riley will be fine. He hit into a shite ton of bad luck this season. Any talk of trading him is asinine. Especially when he hasn't even had a full year of time in the bigs.
Terrible take.
This post was edited on 11/26/20 at 9:32 pm
Posted on 11/26/20 at 9:44 pm to rebel of fortune
quote:
His defense at 3rd base has been pretty bad
Lol...what?
Posted on 11/26/20 at 9:50 pm to Broski
quote:
I really don't believe you watch the games,
Lol the old “put down the calculator and watch the game!!” Classic line despite the fact that you know I post in game threads every night and I even posted a picture from game 7 of the NLCS. I go to 25+ games every year in non COVID years and try to see all the minor league teams every summer.
Most every decision the FO makes is based on data. That’s why I reference it so much. When kids are drafted by the Braves they are put through classes and seminars teaching them how to use spin rate, exit velo, etc. to improve their performance. It’s a huge part of the game now. They are not going to make decisions on how to manage a $150 million payroll based on the “eye test” very often. Yes there’s a place for the human element in roster construction, especially from a personality standpoint, but relying heavily on emotion or intuition in evaluating players at the ML level is a great way to get fired when there’s so much information available.
Ozuna was such a good buy low last year because of his underlying metrics. The hard hit rate and xOBA was off the charts and the production hadn’t matched. Giving someone 4 years, $75M or whatever based on a 60 game sample size when the production has never matched the metrics over the long haul is a very risky proposition though, especially with the unknown about the DH and the abhorrent defense.
Saying “AA should be fired” if Ozuna isn’t brought back is much more short sighted than anything I’ve posted. There are many different ways to skin a cat and when you are working with a mid market budget you have to get creative and thread the needle with big money signings. If the DH is eliminated there is virtually 0 chance Ozuna on a long term deal would be the best use of that money imo.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 9:56 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
Ozuna was still an above average hitter last year with a low babip. Riley has no value right now outside of the long ball. His batting profile is very similar to Hunter Renfroe who the Rays just cut. Most projections have him and Camargo with around the same amount of war next year.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:02 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
quote:
Riley had pretty much the same periphials this year that Ozuna had in '19.
How do you figure?
Ozuna ‘19
.548 xSLG, .387 xWOBA, 49.2% Hard Hit, 20.8 K%, 11.3 BB%
Riley ‘20
.471 xSLG, .325 xWOBA, 42.9% Hard Hit, 23.8 K%, 7.8 BB%
Riley has a bad approach and tons of swing and miss. He does hit the ball hard when he squares it up (though not as hard as Ozuna does or did even in his down years). Riley hit into some hard luck but anyone who has an approach like he does is going to have to do an absolute shite ton of damage to be a valuable offensive player. The underlying metrics don’t support that he’s hitting it hard enough nearly consistently enough to do that.
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