re: The ATL Thread: Offseason

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Huh?

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Relative. One year deals, low commitment.

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If you wanna bitch, bitch. But I don't see what there is to complain about this signing.

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This is a Braves discussion thread. We're discussing the Braves

Your moderator schtick is pretty fricking annoying

Brantley or Turner will take Ozuna’s spot imo. I just can’t see them going long term with Ozuna. We’ll see.

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I would have preferred we splash cash on a pitcher in their prime rather than hunting in the bargain bin and trying to squeeze the last ounce of baseball from guys on the way out.

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While I get that, any pitcher of Morton’s caliber would be way out of anything AA would be comfortable with, both AAV and the number of years. 1 year for $15 million is great value with very little risk, especially considering how many good young arms we already have in the rotation.

I’ve gotta be honest, though—I had no idea he was 37. After having kids, I took about a decade off of keeping up with MLB save for the playoffs, watching Mike Trout, or knowing where the Braves were in the standings (thanks to Dale Murphy mostly). So I just looked up some stuff on Morton’s career—I mostly just remembered him throwing gas and beasting for the ‘Stros when they won the WS—and found a few things interesting:

1) I’m not sure if it was juice or what, but he added velocity in his mid 30s and had his best 3 seasons in ‘17, ‘18 and ‘19 (he turned 37 this month, so those were his age 33, 34 and 35 seasons).

2) 2017–went 14-7 (records still matter to me, dammit), 3.62 ERA and 163 strikeouts in just 146 2/3 innings.

3) 2018–went 15-3, 3.13 ERA, and 201 Ks in 167 innings and was named to the All-Star team (matters way more for pitchers)

4) 2019–went 16-6 with 3.05 ERA and 240 Ks in 194 2/3 innings. Led MLB in homeruns per 9, selected to another All-Star game, and finished 3rd in the AL in Cy Young voting

5) had a bad 2020 (didn’t we all), but was hurt an only threw 38 innings.

So this time last year, he was literally coming off his best season as a pro—his best 3 seasons as a pro. If he can give us anywhere near the production of his ‘17-‘19 seasons, that would be incredible. But even if we get closer to the ‘2020 version, I still like the move due to his playoff experience and success.

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On October 21, he won Game 7 of the ALCS at Minute Maid Park pitching five shutout innings with five strikeouts, sending the Astros to the World Series. Morton started Game 4 of the World Series and pitched well over 6.1 innings giving up one earned run on 3 hits and 7 strikeouts in an eventual Astros loss. Morton pitched the final four innings in Game 7 of the World Series. He was credited as the winning pitcher helping the Astros win their first World Series title

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in 2019, Morton started the American League Wild Card Game against the Oakland Athletics, receiving a win in five innings of work.This was Morton's third career win in winner-take-all playoff games, this is the most in MLB playoff history.

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In 2020, Morton pitched in game 7 of the American League Championship Series against his former team the Houston Astros. He recorded his fourth win in a winner-take-all playoff game, extending his record

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My point is is that this is the type of moves that wins WS. Our lack of pitching depth cost us a WS berth. If we had had either Soroka or Morton in the LCS we'd of been playing Tampa in the WS. This move gets us towards that goal. I understand that he's 37, but unlike Hamels, he didn't miss an entire season the year before and he has always been in prime shape.

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I said it was pretty good business, but per normal it's a move that has considerable risk and requires the necessary pieces to fall into place for success. We need Soroka back, we need him to perform at prior levels, we need 2 other young guys to continue their newfound (for Anderson, very newfound) success, we need an old guy to stay lively for another year and we need a middling lefty to fulfill the metric promise shown last season. Or, we need most of those and some unreliable guys to become reliable.

To some extent that's normal for every team, but I think the Braves are in a cycle of doing this on pretty thin margins. Perhaps that's our best option, but I don't know that for certain - hence the discussion.

And I don't think anyone is going to object to Morton in a vacuum. Considered by itself we all like the signing. The debate (to the extent there is one) is what Morton represents as far as the GM philosophy and/or limitations of the club.

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Then AA needs to go

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What if some team offers Ozuna a 5 yr/$120MIL deal? That would be financially irresponsible to sign him to that kind of deal.

What do you think of the Morton deal?

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debate (to the extent there is one) is what Morton represents as far as the GM philosophy and/or limitations of the club.

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Morton was signed to win in October, period!. He has a sub 3.5 ERA in 60 October innings and has a ring. That's why he was signed.

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We need Soroka back, we need him to perform at prior levels, we need 2 other young guys to continue their newfound (for Anderson, very newfound) success,

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See, those are reasons why I think this is a good move. I’m not sold on Soroka just walking right back into the rotation (whether that’s May or August) and being an ace. I actually don’t expect that until ‘22. Anything we get in ‘21 is lagniappe for me.

And I’m not 100% sold on Anderson being mentally ready to be a #2 you can count on yet. Nobody seems to be talking about it, but I think he was gifted a huge opportunity pitching in front of zero crowd. I’ve been to a few NLCS games in Atlanta, and it would be nerve-wracking even in your home stadium. Crowds absolutely affect pitching, home or away. Some feed off it and pitch at a higher level, some zone it out, and some shite their pants.

I’m not ready to gamble on which one Anderson is yet. Also, reading up on Morton, I saw that he gained a ton of velocity post 30 where he was sitting 98/99 almost with the Stros. Think about how much nastier Anderson would be at 6’7” if he was sitting 96/97 instead of 93/94. Also, Morton developed something that made him a lot more effective against left-handers. That would be super valuable to every RHP on staff, but especially Anderson, I’d think. So hopefully Morton’s raw numbers justify his $15 million. But I think he’ll help in other ways that may not show up as easily.

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So you have Morton starting a postseason game over Soroka, Fried and Anderson

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Over the first two, absolutely not. Over Anderson? Maybe. But he's definitely starting for me in a 7-game series. He's been there, done that and has the numbers and pedigree to back it up.

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Yeah, it's nice to bring in a starting pitcher better than Tommy Milone, but Morton doesn't really move the needle.

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This is a bad take IMO. A warm body is better than Milone, but to say Morton doesn't move the needle is incorrect IMO. He's substantially better than anyone on the market save Bauer.