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re: The ATL Thread: Offseason
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:03 pm to rebel of fortune
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:03 pm to rebel of fortune
quote:
Ozuna was still an above average hitter last year with a low babip
This was exactly Riley this year. Low BABIP due to hitting the ball on the nose but right at people. Go look at his and Ozuna's periphials. Basically identical, just a year apart.
You can't make a projection either way on the kid till we see him get a full year under his belt.
0
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:06 pm to volfan30
The only #'s I care about are the hard hit % and the BABIP. Which are nearly the same between the two. All the other #'s are for SABR nerds.
Riley improved his walk rate this past season. By a good bit.
Riley improved his walk rate this past season. By a good bit.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:12 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
Why would you willfully ignore helpful stats that are used by the decision makers? You would be wise to go to the A List events that are hosted by FO employees every summer. The xWOBA and xSLG numbers Donaldson put up in Cleveland after he was traded in September of 18 were mentioned and explained as being the two main numbers that convinced them to sign him (along with the Poulis connection and personality fit) by Alex Tamin last summer.
Anything beyond BABIP and hard hit rate are for SABR nerds? What do you think the people who are making the decisions on roster building are? I mean goodness gracious.
Anything beyond BABIP and hard hit rate are for SABR nerds? What do you think the people who are making the decisions on roster building are? I mean goodness gracious.
This post was edited on 11/26/20 at 10:13 pm
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:14 pm to SteelerBravesDawg
The hard hit rates are nowhere close by the way. Riley was in the 69th percentile league wide and Ozuna was in the 95th percentile.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:23 pm to volfan30
I think Ozuna’s number warrant a new contract.
I get it, financial flexibility and all that, but at some point we have to commit that money and that time seems to be now. The one year contracts/wait-and-see approach made sense when our farm was deep, but that is no longer the case. All of those guys are basically up now. We’re a World Series contending team and Ozuna and his MVP-type season was a big part of that.
It was one thing letting Donaldson’s .260/34 HR go in 2019 because you can find guys to replace that production, which we did.
It’s going to be really fricking hard to find a replacement for Ozuna’s production.
I get it, financial flexibility and all that, but at some point we have to commit that money and that time seems to be now. The one year contracts/wait-and-see approach made sense when our farm was deep, but that is no longer the case. All of those guys are basically up now. We’re a World Series contending team and Ozuna and his MVP-type season was a big part of that.
It was one thing letting Donaldson’s .260/34 HR go in 2019 because you can find guys to replace that production, which we did.
It’s going to be really fricking hard to find a replacement for Ozuna’s production.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:29 pm to Broski
As for Riley, yeah there are huge holes in his swing, but he has also had significant stretches in each season where he was our hottest hitter.
Also, he has t even played 162 games yet.
There’s more ceiling than floor to him.
Also, he has t even played 162 games yet.
There’s more ceiling than floor to him.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:29 pm to Broski
I agree with what you’re saying about winning a WS and if you could guarantee the offensive output we got from Ozuna going forward I would agree, but the budgetary component is still there and has to be considered and the track record for him is very mixed.
We both want the team to be as good as possible but I think a long term deal for Ozuna could be costly long term. They know the makeup better than me but I don’t have great confidence that he will produce like he did last year going forward and I think having to play him in LF would be a tough pill to swallow.
If we sign him I’m not going to complain (especially if there’s a DH) but I think there may be a few other ways to use that money that could be more beneficial.
I’m expecting Ozuna to come back to earth quite a bit next year though. If he doesn’t and has another year close to what we just saw offensively you are probably right that there won’t be a way to replace that.
We both want the team to be as good as possible but I think a long term deal for Ozuna could be costly long term. They know the makeup better than me but I don’t have great confidence that he will produce like he did last year going forward and I think having to play him in LF would be a tough pill to swallow.
If we sign him I’m not going to complain (especially if there’s a DH) but I think there may be a few other ways to use that money that could be more beneficial.
I’m expecting Ozuna to come back to earth quite a bit next year though. If he doesn’t and has another year close to what we just saw offensively you are probably right that there won’t be a way to replace that.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:36 pm to Broski
I’m not super high on Riley and really never have been. If he’s not traded this offseason I think that shows the FO believes in him a lot more than I do. I have to think you could get Kris Bryant pretty easily with Riley as the biggest piece going the other way, even if it may take a tad bit more to seal the deal.
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:38 pm to volfan30
And yeah, it could totally burn us, but I think his production this season had more to do with how our lineup was situated as opposed to just being some kind of fluky anomaly
Posted on 11/26/20 at 10:50 pm to volfan30
I’m not expecting him to be an All Star or anything, but I can see a consistent 30+ HR guy that plays decent defense.
I wouldn’t hate it if we flipped him for something, but I’m not ready to give up on him just yet.
I wouldn’t hate it if we flipped him for something, but I’m not ready to give up on him just yet.
Posted on 11/27/20 at 7:37 am to volfan30
quote:
Kris Bryant
He's been declining every year. No thanks.
Posted on 11/27/20 at 7:39 am to volfan30
SABR is for nerds.
Posted on 11/27/20 at 11:24 am to volfan30
Vol. why u no email me
Posted on 12/2/20 at 5:39 pm to okietiger
quote:
Jon Heyman
@JonHeyman
Luke Jackson, Braves settle at $1.8M
Championship!
Posted on 12/2/20 at 5:49 pm to Broski
Also, Duvall non-tendered.
quote:
Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal
1m
Braves will consider re-signing outfielder Adam Duvall, who became a free agent after the team non-tendered him today. Without an assurance of a DH in the National League, club wants to stay flexible in LF. Duvall projected to earn $4.7M in arbitration
Posted on 12/2/20 at 6:38 pm to Broski
Signed Luke Jackson, Dayton, and Camargo
Posted on 12/2/20 at 9:11 pm to Broski
Trying not to get pissed but WTF are we doing?!?
Posted on 12/2/20 at 9:24 pm to Broski
quote:
Duvall non-tendered
Posted on 12/3/20 at 1:33 am to VADawg
Duvall was a very risky player to tender a contract to. Old school stats pay in arb and he was looking at $6M+ based on the impressive counting stats in all likelihood. MLBTR pegged him at 4.9-7.1 and his statistical profile has typically paid in arb cases.
Underlying numbers for him last year were not great and he is pretty much useless against righties. I’m sure they’ll bring him back for $3M or so if they can, but you can’t risk losing an arb case and paying a part time player $6 or $7M with our payroll. He has a place on a good team as a bit piece but he is a negative value guy at anything over $4M imo.
Camargo and Dayton deals are non guaranteed and I assume Jackson’s is as well.
Underlying numbers for him last year were not great and he is pretty much useless against righties. I’m sure they’ll bring him back for $3M or so if they can, but you can’t risk losing an arb case and paying a part time player $6 or $7M with our payroll. He has a place on a good team as a bit piece but he is a negative value guy at anything over $4M imo.
Camargo and Dayton deals are non guaranteed and I assume Jackson’s is as well.
This post was edited on 12/3/20 at 1:35 am
Posted on 12/3/20 at 6:20 am to volfan30
I actually advocated trading Duvall this offseason because his value would never be higher.
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