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Started By
Message
According to the Keys to the White House, Trump will lose.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:18 am
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:18 am
(Save your attacks, I’m a Trump supporter, but you have to understand Allan Lichtman’s model to have a reasonable discussion here)
March article
I’ve used Professor Lichtman’s model in my arguments that Trump would win the last election, so I can’t ignore it in this election just because it doesn’t fit my desire to re-elect Trump. It’s very concerning though.
Lichtman has accurately predicted the last 9 elections since 84.
The 13 Key model basic idea - If the incumbent has 6 or more keys turn false, the incumbent loses.
Trump had 4 false keys headed into the year. Party Mandate, scandal, foreign success, incumbent charisma. All of those were negative for Trump. They are considered locked in. Before the virus and riots, Trump was guaranteed to win according to Lichtman.
Now since the virus, 2 more keys have turned false. - short term economy, and social unrest.
With those two keys now negative, Trump will lose according to Lichtman’s predictive system.
I am not arguing against Trump so save your attacks. Just want to have an honest discussion.
A surge in corona virus cases near election will doom the economy and Trump according to this model. The economy is priority number 1. It has to be turned around big league.
March article
I’ve used Professor Lichtman’s model in my arguments that Trump would win the last election, so I can’t ignore it in this election just because it doesn’t fit my desire to re-elect Trump. It’s very concerning though.
Lichtman has accurately predicted the last 9 elections since 84.
The 13 Key model basic idea - If the incumbent has 6 or more keys turn false, the incumbent loses.
Trump had 4 false keys headed into the year. Party Mandate, scandal, foreign success, incumbent charisma. All of those were negative for Trump. They are considered locked in. Before the virus and riots, Trump was guaranteed to win according to Lichtman.
Now since the virus, 2 more keys have turned false. - short term economy, and social unrest.
With those two keys now negative, Trump will lose according to Lichtman’s predictive system.
I am not arguing against Trump so save your attacks. Just want to have an honest discussion.
A surge in corona virus cases near election will doom the economy and Trump according to this model. The economy is priority number 1. It has to be turned around big league.
32
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:19 am to oilattorney4lsu
quote:
A surge in corona virus cases near election will doom the economy
Negative....a 2nd shutdown will doom the economy. I can't see a 2nd shutdown.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:20 am to oilattorney4lsu
quote:
surge in corona virus cases near election will doom the economy and Trump according to this model.
I love this point. So people think Dementia Joe would do a better job with the economy and virus?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:21 am to oilattorney4lsu
It ain't over till it's over!
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:22 am to oilattorney4lsu
I'd take issue with the 'scandals' and foreign policy points. It is becoming clearer by the day, with demonstrable evidence, that the Trump 'scandals' are all manufactured by the opposition. I think this clarification will only continue as the election approaches. I'd also argue that Trump has, again, demonstrable evidence to support his foreign policy, specifically on trade and the border. So while I don't disagree with the idea of the 'keys', I think at least two are mischaracterized.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:22 am to oilattorney4lsu
This election isn’t like the previous 9. This country has never had the opposing party manufacture disasters and force 5 or 6 keys to happen. If we’re using his system, establishment Democrats and Biden are actually the ones who’ve hit 6 keys already, Trump is only at 4 (two of those being manufactured outrage by the media)
This post was edited on 6/24/20 at 10:23 am
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:22 am to oilattorney4lsu
That might be true, but the alternative is a man who cannot complete sentences and has less energy than a dead battery. It’s not trump vs generic democrat, it’s trump vs Biden.
If the Dems had nominated someone with charisma and energy, I think your model would hold up. They decided to go with a dead person instead.
If the Dems had nominated someone with charisma and energy, I think your model would hold up. They decided to go with a dead person instead.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:23 am to oilattorney4lsu
That's a real possibility since this country is hopelessly twisted.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:24 am to oilattorney4lsu
This is Trump's lowest point in his reelection campaign and he needs to make a wholesale change in not just his administration but his campaign as well. Bring back Bannon and fired Jared, Ivanka and Parscale.
I really hope the President can turn this around because I really do not want the communists and loony nut job Antifa sympathizers that own Joe Biden anywhere near the White House.
Get back to the 2016-15 Donald Trump Mr. President.
I really hope the President can turn this around because I really do not want the communists and loony nut job Antifa sympathizers that own Joe Biden anywhere near the White House.
Get back to the 2016-15 Donald Trump Mr. President.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:25 am to oilattorney4lsu
economy is getting better, and charisma is not a negative for Trump
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:25 am to oilattorney4lsu
The Art of War
When you are strong, appear weak.
Donald Trump is the President we needed.
When you are strong, appear weak.
Donald Trump is the President we needed.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:25 am to MsHoghunter
Joe will get Clintoned about a month before the election. Just in time for Hillary to swoop in and take his spot.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:27 am to oilattorney4lsu
Trump will retain the keys to the White House for 2 reasons:
1. Biden is brain dead
2. The Democrats are now clearly identified with the radical left. Centrists will either stay at home or grit their teeth and vote for Trump because they don't want our nation to descend into socialist state.
1. Biden is brain dead
2. The Democrats are now clearly identified with the radical left. Centrists will either stay at home or grit their teeth and vote for Trump because they don't want our nation to descend into socialist state.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:28 am to Kirk Herbstreit
quote:
Joe will get Clintoned about a month before the election. Just in time for Hillary to swoop in and take his spot.
Been sitting here enjoying the PoliBoard but I suddenly got nauseated for some reason.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:28 am to oilattorney4lsu
quote:
Trump had 4 false keys headed into the year. Party Mandate, scandal, foreign success, incumbent charisma.
quote:
Party Mandate
Exactly how does he NOT have this?
quote:
scandal
What, exactly, is the scandal? Ukraine? was shown to be a nothingburger and Trump was not convicted. Russia? Exonerated my Mueller .
quote:
foreign success
Phase 1 trade deal? No wars? Defeating ISIS?
quote:
incumbent charisma
Don't know enough about this to know if this means something else, but Trump has charisma is spades - especially in comparison to Creepy Joe.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:29 am to Nono
Is there a key for opponent with dementia ?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:29 am to oilattorney4lsu
If the election were today, Trump might lose.
But November's election will be very critical. Will the Marxists take full power over us? That is the issue.
I think most grown-ups realize what's at stake.
But November's election will be very critical. Will the Marxists take full power over us? That is the issue.
I think most grown-ups realize what's at stake.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:29 am to coolpapaboze
quote:This was my same immediate take on the read.
I'd take issue with the 'scandals' and foreign policy points. It is becoming clearer by the day, with demonstrable evidence, that the Trump 'scandals' are all manufactured by the opposition. I think this clarification will only continue as the election approaches. I'd also argue that Trump has, again, demonstrable evidence to support his foreign policy, specifically on trade and the border. So while I don't disagree with the idea of the 'keys', I think at least two are mischaracterized.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:29 am to mightyMick
Is there a key for Obamagate?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 10:30 am to Champagne
I do not agree and with all that is going on it would make more vote for Trump than before.
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