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re: According to the Keys to the White House, Trump will lose.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:17 am to udtiger
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:17 am to udtiger
quote:
quote:
incumbent charisma
Don't know enough about this to know if this means something else, but Trump has charisma is spades - especially in comparison to Creepy Joe.
Agreed. Even villains have charisma.Although many in he country detest Trump it just helps to stoke his base which is shown in his huge rallies ( Tulsa was an outlier due to media hysteria and violence in the streets). Trump supporters will show up at the polls. Biden has absolutely no charisma other than his corniness which connects with no one. When the two will finally be onstage together it could be epic.
0
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:18 am to LSU316
quote:
Negative....a 2nd shutdown will doom the economy. I can't see a 2nd shutdown.
The shut downs will be on a state by state basis
A few large states can do enough disruption to the national economy
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:19 am to dcbl
quote:
economy is getting better
The job market has a long way to go and I don't know how quickly it's going to improve
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:22 am to oilattorney4lsu
Trump is a goner!
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:23 am to oilattorney4lsu
I understand his model but it does not account for an economy that was purposefully shut down as a means of dealing with a pandemic.
quote:How are these false for him?
Party Mandate, incumbent charisma
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:23 am to udtiger
quote:
quote:
Party Mandate
Exactly how does he NOT have this?
According to his "Key Criteria":
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
quote:
incumbent charisma
Don't know enough about this to know if this means something else, but Trump has charisma is spades - especially in comparison to Creepy Joe.
This one seemed like the most subjective one of the bunch, but he explains it as having broad support among the entire country, not just his core base. Neither Trump or Biden have this.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:24 am to FlyingTiger1955
Hey Flying fricktard, want to bet on that ?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:27 am to Mickey Goldmill
quote:That doesn't often happen. Midterms are almost always bad for the president's party.
Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:32 am to Mickey Goldmill
The choice is Donald Trump or the Nazi Party.....
You seem like an intelligent chap....to bad your genitals will decide your vote as well as a few million of your Schwestern und Bruder....
You seem like an intelligent chap....to bad your genitals will decide your vote as well as a few million of your Schwestern und Bruder....
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:40 am to oogabooga68
quote:
oogabooga68
Is it impossible for you to stay on a specific topic?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:43 am to oilattorney4lsu
TRUMP is imploding. He is going to lose. Anyone paying attention who’s not in diagnosable clinical denial about the reality of the situation can see that.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:44 am to oogabooga68
quote:
The choice is Donald Trump or the Nazi Party
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:51 am to oilattorney4lsu
All these polls and predictions are just the set up for the election cheating scandal that the dems will utilize
Posted on 6/24/20 at 11:59 am to Mickey Goldmill
Probably.
But the discussion is the election.
YOUR side have inarguably adopted tactics that mirror the rise of the Nazi Party in 1930's Germany, yet supposedly intelligent people like you will support them because you are a gay man.
It makes no sense whatsoever that you would throw your lot in with a movement that seeks to shame, destroy and eat away at personal freedom of thought and action.
But the discussion is the election.
YOUR side have inarguably adopted tactics that mirror the rise of the Nazi Party in 1930's Germany, yet supposedly intelligent people like you will support them because you are a gay man.
It makes no sense whatsoever that you would throw your lot in with a movement that seeks to shame, destroy and eat away at personal freedom of thought and action.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:13 pm to oilattorney4lsu
Is one of Mr. Lichtman's keys:
'One of the major parties decides to run on the promise of making America a communist country'.
If not, he might be off.
'One of the major parties decides to run on the promise of making America a communist country'.
If not, he might be off.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:17 pm to LSU316
quote:
I can't see a 2nd shutdown.
I can see it in dim controlled states.
Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:17 pm to oilattorney4lsu
quote:
Trump had 4 false keys headed into the year. Party Mandate, scandal, foreign success, incumbent charisma.
Party Mandate - 95% support = bullshite
scandal - not a real one = bullshite
foreign success - simple lie = bullshite
incumbent charisma - he oozes it, especially compared to Biden, which will happen = bullshite
God damn, garbage in garbage out
As a "Trump supporter" do you ever read what you post or do you just grab a favorable headline?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:29 pm to Zach
Nobody posted the keys
I see how Lichtman skews his results, he has some keys that are so subjective that he probably rides polls and waits until the absolute last second to post his "prediction"
quote:quote:
1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
Adv Biden
quote:
2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
Adv Trump
quote:
3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
Adv Trump
quote:
4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
Adv Trump
quote:
5. Short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
Ehh hard to say advantage Biden when this is pandemic related, so I will say TBD
quote:
6. Long-term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
Adv Trump
quote:
7. Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
Another one TBD, this is pretty subjective. Dems have not really done themselves any policy favors - leaning to Adv Trump with the Socialism, protests and violence driving Moderates away from the Dems
quote:
8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
Adv Biden
quote:
9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
"scandal" is a pretty subjective word but to accomodate the media attacks let's say Adv Biden
quote:
10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
None to date - Adv Trump
quote:
11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
this is subjective to whether we see killing Qasem Soleimani NK, Iran, SA, ISIS etc as big enough wins
TBD
quote:
12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
Trump has charisma if you like him and is polarizing if you dont
this is super subjective
TBD
quote:
13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
the challenger has onset dementia
Adv Trump
I see how Lichtman skews his results, he has some keys that are so subjective that he probably rides polls and waits until the absolute last second to post his "prediction"
Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:32 pm to supatigah
8. Uh, the social unrest is being caused from the Democrats. How does that advantage Biden?
Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:35 pm to oilattorney4lsu
I think Not in keys but in the actual numbers. We have Dems who are promoting ANYTHING to take Trump down. The number of people rioting is up to a million. The Dems are pushing it, but there are 329 MILLION people in this country (.003%) and normally only 1/2 come out to vote. Somehow we need to get the rest to do so also. I can't believe that Americans are willing to let their country go down in flames because .003% of the population hate this country and want to turn it communist.
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