quote:
Party Mandate - 95% support = bullshite
scandal - not a real one = bullshite
foreign success - simple lie = bullshite
incumbent charisma - he oozes it, especially compared to Biden, which will happen = bullshite

God damn, garbage in garbage out

As a "Trump supporter" do you ever read what you post or do you just grab a favorable headline?

You obviously didn't read what the keys mean in his criteria.

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Posted by tketaco

Sunnyside, Houston

Member since Jan 2010

19586 posts

Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:38 pm to oilattorney4lsu

He loses.

We'll manufacture our own disaster for the winner.

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Posted by supatigah

CEO of the Keith Hernandez Fan Club

Member since Mar 2004

87518 posts

Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:41 pm to Zach

quote:
8. Uh, the social unrest is being caused from the Democrats. How does that advantage Biden?

well these things are so damned subjective you can argue against conclusions on 8/13

I answered it at face value, probably should be TBD

I guess it depends on if responsibility for the social unrest falls on DJT or Democrats

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Posted by Mickey Goldmill

Baton Rouge

Member since Mar 2010

23119 posts

Posted on 6/24/20 at 12:42 pm to oogabooga68

quote:
But the discussion is the election.

The discussion is a specific article based on a specific criteria to model a prediction. Most everyone else is posting about the article/model while you are posting about Nazis.

quote:
YOUR side have inarguably adopted tactics that mirror the rise of the Nazi Party in 1930's Germany, yet supposedly intelligent people like you will support them because you are a gay man.

My dislike of Trump has absolutely nothing to do with being gay. I don't support protected classes, I support freedom of association, I support private businesses having the right to refuse service to anyone they want.

You think my sexual orientation defines me, but it has very little at all to do with my views.

quote:
It makes no sense whatsoever that you would throw your lot in with a movement that seeks to shame, destroy and eat away at personal freedom of thought and action.

The cancel culture has gotten out of control and I do not support it.

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Posted by CGSC Lobotomy

Member since Sep 2011

80434 posts

Posted on 6/24/20 at 5:20 pm to supatigah

1. Party Mandate: If you only count the House, this is a flawed metric. - Biden

2. Contest - Trump

3. Incumbency - Trump

4. Third Party - Trump

5. Short-Term Economy - This one is invalid due to COVID

6. Long-Term Economy - Trump

7. Policy Change - Trump and this is NOT subjective. From the change in policy towards China to the USMCA to the changes to taxes, there have been sweeping policy changes.

8. Social Unrest - Biden, but this might be a huge disadvantage especially if the unrest can be tied to his party.

9. Scandal - Push. Biden is actually tainted with more scandal than Trump is.

10. Foreign/Military Failure - Trump

11. Foreign/Military Success - Trump. Between the killing of Al Baghdadi and the killing of Soulemani, this is not up for debate.

12. Incumbent charisma - Trump and your analytical and observational skills are flawed if you think otherwise.

13. Challenger charisma - Trump

I see NINE of the keys in President Trump's favor and he could flip at least two of them in the coming months.

If you look at these and compare Trump to Clinton in 2016 Trump held between 9-12 of those keys. He STILL hold that same number.

This post was edited on 6/24/20 at 5:25 pm

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