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re: Storm Watch- Gulf- Tropical Depression- Northward Miss. Valley

Posted on 6/1/20 at 1:52 pm to
Posted by lovethetigers7
Member since Jul 2019
529 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 1:52 pm to
Didn't know that either!
Posted by DeCat ODahouse
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2017
1376 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 2:19 pm to
quote:

I don’t have time to deal with a storm so I am going to stock up get gas and be ready that will guarantee it won’t amount to anything


Thanks for doing your part
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 2:39 pm to
Coronacane here we come!
Posted by lsugolfredman
Member since Jun 2005
1851 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 2:59 pm to


Latest Euro Ensembles
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23433 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:09 pm to
quote:

Latest Euro Ensembles

So, somewhere between Brownsville, Texas and Mobile, Alabama
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:13 pm to
2020 is one of the shittier years I can remember so why not make it even more shittier with this.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19841 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:16 pm to
Upgraded to TD3.
Posted by paperwasp
11x HRV tRant Poster of the Week
Member since Sep 2014
23433 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:24 pm to
quote:

Upgraded to TD3.

Next name is Cristobal
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
91170 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:25 pm to
quote:

Obviously, that can change in just a few model runs but at a minimum areas along the Gulf Coast need to keep an eye out for heavy rain.


Wishcasters right now

Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41889 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:25 pm to


There's a cluster of 4 or 5 strong tropical storm/minor hurricane ensembles heading to the central Louisiana coast from Vermilion Bay to Terrebonne Parish. I think that may be the first little "mini cluster" in Louisiana I've seen from the stronger Euro ensembles this system.

I read somewhere else that there's a bit of support for it to be faster and miss an upper level low in the southern Gulf, allowing for it to be a tad stronger and further to the north. They noted that that support was still not believed to be gospel by the NHC yet.
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164597 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:52 pm to
We got a depression

Time for a sticky

Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
99664 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:53 pm to
Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164597 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:57 pm to


Posted by TDsngumbo
Alpha Silverfox
Member since Oct 2011
41889 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 3:58 pm to
quote:

Time for a sticky

Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
164597 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:04 pm to
The weather channel cone is the PJ special

Posted by Hulkklogan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Oct 2010
43314 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:08 pm to
I don't think I've ever seen a projection that so clearly demonstrates that they have no clue what's going to happen
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85470 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:13 pm to
quote:


I don't think I've ever seen a projection that so clearly demonstrates that they have no clue what's going to happen


On the contrary, they're basically telling you they think it will meander in one general spot for 5 days.

Remember the "cone" is really just 5 circles based on projected center locations and average margin of error in the last 5 years.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
141514 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:14 pm to
quote:

I don't think I've ever seen a projection that so clearly demonstrates that they have no clue what's going to happen

a storm that's expected to stall out or just meander about will have a cone that more resembles a circle

like this
Posted by Duke
Twin Lakes, CO
Member since Jan 2008
35703 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:17 pm to
quote:

a storm that's expected to stall out or just meander about will have a cone that more resembles a circle


In fairness, the track is very uncertain outside of the first two days.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
85470 posts
Posted on 6/1/20 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

In fairness, the track is very uncertain outside of the first two days.


The NHC should consider some form of confidence forecasting cones. Using the last few years or errors doesn't illustrate the confidence or lack thereof in a particular forecast. The discussion helps, but the masses don't read that kind of thing.
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