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NY Times - Rally driven by FOMO money managers + short sellers
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:09 pm
Posted on 4/8/20 at 11:09 pm
quote:
Some of the buyers are opportunistic hedge fund traders and mutual fund managers, driving sharp gains for blue-chip shares that were battered by the market sell-off. Some are traders feeling pressure to get into a rising market. And some are short-sellers forced to buy to minimize their own losses.
“This is trader and professional money driving this market,” said Scott Wren, a managing director at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute.
quote:
Mom-and-pop investors have largely been sitting out — a sign that the rally doesn’t reflect widespread optimism.
“They’re still really nervous,” said Michael Yoshikami, whose firm Destination Wealth Management manages some $2.5 billion in assets for clients from its base in Walnut Creek, Calif. “There’s not a lot of conviction that this rally is the start of things being back to normal.”
The economic outlook is bleak: The United States appears to be teetering on the brink of the steepest downturn since the Great Depression. Goldman Sachs economists, for example, expect the gross domestic product to contract at an astounding 34 percent annual rate in the second quarter, with unemployment reaching roughly 15 percent.
That makes the market’s recent bounce all the more remarkable.
The S&P 500 is up 23 percent from its low last month. Opportunistic buyers are seeking bargains, while short-sellers are paradoxically helping amplify the rally.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:35 am to euphemus
The market is reversing course because the virus is a dud.
We went from a projected 2 million deaths to 60,000 in a month. The virus is a complete nonevent in much of the country.
The damage is done to fundamentals for now but the recovery will be swift.
We went from a projected 2 million deaths to 60,000 in a month. The virus is a complete nonevent in much of the country.
The damage is done to fundamentals for now but the recovery will be swift.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:38 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
We went from a projected 2 million deaths to 60,000 in a month.
Would it have mattered to the markets if it was 100k assuming the quarantine timeframe was the same? I dont think so.
We also dont know what will happen when quarantine is lifted. Still a lot of uncertainty.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 12:43 am to LSUTOM07
I will tell you what is going to happen: there is going to be huge pent up demand for restaurants and retail.
Travel will remain slow for a couple of months but will come back with a vengeance.
Travel will remain slow for a couple of months but will come back with a vengeance.
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 12:44 am
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:00 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
huge pent up demand for restaurants and retail.
The first thing I am going to do is get a margarita and a hair cut.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:10 am to Janky
Don't forget endless chips and salsa.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:29 am to Janky
Cinco de Mayo gonna become an American holiday now!!
Posted on 4/9/20 at 6:44 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
will tell you what is going to happen: there is going to be huge pent up demand for restaurants and retail.
Agree 100%
As for Travel, I’m going to travel my arse off while all others are irrationally scared.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:03 am to Shepherd88
You had better hope that enough people say frick it to the lockdown by April 23 from what I am hearing. May 5 the US may be unrecognizable economically
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:05 am to KiwiHead
It's already unrecognizable bro. So is the rest of the world.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:07 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
The market is reversing course because the virus is a dud.
We went from a projected 2 million deaths to 60,000 in a month. The virus is a complete nonevent in much of the country.
The death rate of the virus is a moot point at this juncture. It's about new cases and when the country will allow everything to open back up.
quote:
The damage is done to fundamentals for now but the recovery will be swift.
I just can't agree with this. 16 million people lost their jobs in 3 weeks. Many businesses are assuredly going to shutdown for good.
You think companies are going to rehire every one of their employees right when they open back up? With depressed earnings for at least 2 quarters and many being cash strapped already, I just don't see it.
You can't have nearly 10% unemployment and expect the economy to just snap back.
The markets may ignore it and continue to go up by virtue of the endless money the gov't and Fed are handing out, but the economy is not a light switch.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:12 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
The market is reversing course because the virus is a dud.
We went from a projected 2 million deaths to 60,000 in a month. The virus is a complete nonevent in much of the country.
The damage is done to fundamentals for now but the recovery will be swift.
The death toll will generally be tied to the amount of people infected. Couldn't this information be used as evidence to the effectiveness of the quarantines? This could be used to justify extending the existing measures beyond April thus having a larger impact on the economy and markets.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:17 am to rintintin
Just have the Feds bazooka the market and everything will be fine! Why print another $2+ trillion if a v shape recovery is expected?
Nothing to worry about here
....
Nothing to worry about here
This post was edited on 4/9/20 at 8:22 am
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:20 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
I will tell you what is going to happen: there is going to be huge pent up demand for restaurants and retail.
Agree 100%. Travel, sports, events will a take a backseat for awhile until we reach a point that it is fully safe. People will want to go out and spend money and the only ways to do that will be food and retail.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:22 am to Lsut81
quote:
As for Travel, I’m going to travel my arse off while all others are irrationally scared.
It will be very interesting to see what domestic travel looks like going forward. I can't see international travel opening up for another couple months.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:29 am to hiltacular
quote:
People will want to go out and spend money and the only ways to do that will be food and retail.
In your opinion, when do you see restaurants opening back up?
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:39 am to rintintin
I think all restaurants will be open before Memorial Day.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 8:43 am to rintintin
Two things:
1. The death toll is important because it demonstrates the absurdity of shutting down the economy for what amounts to a bad flu.
2. Many of the job losses are in the service industry. These jobs will be refilled in a New York minute when the public consumes restaurants and retail like there is no tomorrow.
1. The death toll is important because it demonstrates the absurdity of shutting down the economy for what amounts to a bad flu.
2. Many of the job losses are in the service industry. These jobs will be refilled in a New York minute when the public consumes restaurants and retail like there is no tomorrow.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:20 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
1. The death toll is important because it demonstrates the absurdity of shutting down the economy for what amounts to a bad flu.
While I agree with you on the absurdity, there's no backtracking now. The death rate could go to 0, but as long as there are new cases the gov't will continue to take precautions.
quote:
2. Many of the job losses are in the service industry. These jobs will be refilled in a New York minute when the public consumes restaurants and retail like there is no tomorrow.
Yes many are in the service industry, but I think you're underestimating how many are not. The hospitality and travel industry is going to take a while to get back to normal. I also think you're overestimating how quick companies will be in rehiring staff. As a business owner, if my revenue has been basically nil for 2-3 months, I'm going to be very careful in my operating expenses until I'm back running pre-virus levels. Possibly longer to make up for the lost revenue.
Posted on 4/9/20 at 9:44 am to Dr Rosenrosen
quote:
We went from a projected 2 million deaths to 60,000 in a month
I would hope if we shut down our country we reduced death estimates in a big way
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